Science fiction

Fantasy football is not a science.

As much as some fantasy “experts” try to crunch numbers, analyze data and apply formulas to their rankings and projections, this game is really just a crapshoot.

Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been known to break out a little scientific method now and then, trying to bring a little order to the chaotic universe of fantasy football. Part of my job involves taking all the information that’s out there and making sense of it all.

But in the end, science can only take you so far. Science couldn’t predict what Marques Colston did last year. And science has no explanation for how Warrick Dunn has lasted in the NFL this long.

There are no absolutes in fantasy football, no hard and fast rules that will hold up in lab testing. That’s why I’m more interested in Sir Isaac Bruce than Sir Isaac Newton, more concerned with the stud running back theory than the theory of relativity. And it’s why instead of giving you some kind of chiseled-in-stone laws for fantasy drafting, I’m going to share some simple gut feelings I have about players I like this season.


• QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: If you’re the kind of person who plays penny slots in Vegas, this is not the gamble for you. But there are only five QBs I’d trust more than McNabb, who is capable of outproducing all of them (yes, all of them) if he can avoid injury.

• RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Here’s your chance to get this year’s version of Joseph Addai/Laurence Maroney. Even in a timeshare, Peterson will have a breakout role in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy of running to set up the run.

• RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Listen, he’s not Tiki Barber, but who is? After Jacobs is off the draft board, good luck finding another bona fide feature back out there. And no, I’m not worried about Reuben Droughns – he’s a fullback in a running back’s uniform.

• RB LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: LaMont and I have a love/hate relationship. He burned me big-time last year, but he’s slowly winning me back with a great preseason. I don’t think I can stay mad at him.

• RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: I thought this was a great offseason move, and his calf injury hasn’t swayed my opinion. Jones is the dependable, every-down back the Jets lacked last year. He’s going to make a fine No. 2 RB.

• QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams: The pretty boys at the top of the QB rankings get all the attention, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bulger as a close second behind Peyton Manning when the season’s over.

• QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos: It’s not often you see a young quarterback surrounded with this much offensive talent and working behind this kind of quality offensive line. Don’t worry about the kid, he’s going to be fine.