Monday, August 27, 2007

Don't overreach for receivers

As much as Chad Johnson might argue otherwise, wide receivers just aren't that important. At least not when it comes to fantasy football.

Terrell Owens might want to slap me upside the head if he were reading this, but it wouldn't make me change my mind: Having an elite wideout isn't as crucial as having one, or even two, elite running backs.

No matter what those ball hogs try to tell you, running back is the marquee position in fantasy. In most standard scoring leagues, the majority of your points will come from runners, based on a simple fact: They touch the ball more often.

Top running backs are handed the ball about 20-25 times a game, or more, and asked to do something exciting with it. Elite receivers might get 15 balls thrown to them if they're lucky. (If Rex Grossman is the quarterback in question, replace "thrown" with "heaved" and "to them" with "in their general direction.") And every time a pass is attempted, only three things can happen, and two of them (interception, incompletion) are bad. I don't like those odds.

Obviously, I'm oversimplifying things, so don't draft running backs in the first five rounds based on what you just read. I don't have an issue with adding Marvin Harrison or Torry Holt or Steve Smith to your roster. I do, however, have an issue with drafters who take these receivers in the first or second round.

Sure, Johnson's a fine fantasy pick, and arguably the best at his position. But do you really want to reach for him in the third round, when it means you could be stuck with some clunker like Jamal Lewis or Ahman Green as your No. 2 back? That's just not gonna cut it, especially when you consider those weeks when Johnson gets held to under 60 receiving yards and no touchdowns - which happened a whopping seven times last year.

Another reason not to reach for a receiver: There are a bunch of guys at the top of the rankings - Johnson, Harrison, Holt, Smith, Owens, Reggie Wayne - who are more or less interchangeable. And behind them, there's an even larger pool of about 10-12 wideouts who could conceivably finish with about the same stats this year. That's certainly not true for running backs, where the drop-off in production is much steeper as you go down the list, making the importance of grabbing a couple studs even more crucial.

Let someone else reach for Owens. In the meantime, you can add some serious depth at running back and wait for one of those other top wideouts to trickle down to you in the third or fourth round. Plus, there's always going to be receiver talent on the waiver wire later in the year, even if you're just grabbing guys who have favorable matchups. That simply isn't so for running backs; even most of the talented backups will already be spoken for on draft day.

While we're on the subject of receivers, here are some other tidbits:

• If the top wideouts are so interchangeable, what made me rank Smith No. 1? Two things: He's his team's clear No. 1 at the position, and he's the most capable of making big plays and erupting for a huge season, a la 2005. The rest of the upper-tier guys are valued for their consistency.

• Folks are way too high on Indianapolis Colts rookie Anthony Gonzalez. The odds are already stacked against first-year receivers, let alone guys who will be their team's No. 3. Sure, Brandon Stokley had a magical year in that role in 2004 for Indy - then caught one touchdown the following season (he was hurt for most of '06).

• Here's a sleeper: Brandon Jones, Tennessee Titans. Vince Young has to throw to somebody, and Eric Moulds just doesn't scare anybody anymore. You won't find too many other NFL No. 1 receivers as late in the draft as Jones.

2 comments:

David Unterreiner said...

Speaking of recievers. Ic Bruce guarantees an MVP season on his blog at yardbarker.com. This prediction has moved him up the ranks in my fantasy draft tomorrow night. Is the first round too early for MVP canidate Bruce?

JASON BARTOLONE said...

Bruce is an excellent first-round pick ... if you're in one of those rare Rams-only leagues. Brock Berlin is also a deep sleeper.