All-Star break: taking stock

The All-Star break is almost here. Time to kick back for a few days, enjoy the festivities from San Francisco, and maybe catch up on some things you’ve been missing the past few months while you were engrossed with your fantasy team. You know, like the MLS season, or those Sopranos episodes on your TiVo (hey, what ever happened to Tony?), or your baby’s first words.

It’s also a perfect opportunity to evaluate your team’s performance so far. Have you been riding a gang of overachievers? Or have you been stuck with a bunch of slumping superstars? Either way, you could be due for a major statistical correction in the second half. Remember, while there are always a few anomalies, most players tend to come pretty close to their projections for a season.

Case in point: Brad Penny. The Los Angeles Dodgers righty has had an unbelievable few months (10-1, 2.39 ERA) and could be in line to start for the National League squad this week. Sound familiar? Perhaps that’s because in the first half of 2006, Penny went 10-2 with 2.91 ERA and started for the NL in the Midsummer Classic. Cue the Twilight Zone music.

Now, take a look at Penny’s final 2006 stats: 16-9, 4.66 ERA. That’s right, Penny went 6-7 in the second half of the season and brought his ERA much closer to his career mark (now at 3.88). In other words, he was pitching a little bit over his head in the first half last year.

So is Penny due for a similar freefall this year? I wouldn’t go that far, but if you’re penciling him in to win 20 games and keep his ERA in the 2.00s, you might be fooling yourself. I’m not saying you’ve got to jettison him, but I do hope you at least brace yourself for when Penny inevitably comes back to Earth.

Here are a few other notable players who, for better or worse, should be returning to reality in the second half:

• Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians: Pronk hasn’t touched the kind of production we expected this season. He’s batting just .257 through Thursday (compared to over .300 the past three seasons), and while he’s walking and striking out at about his usual rates, his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) is just .844, as opposed to 1.098, 1.003 and .993 the past three years. That means the extra-base hits just haven’t been there this season, but I have a hard time believing that will continue for this accomplished slugger.

• David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: It’s a similar story for Big Papi, another DH whose power numbers are down. Ortiz is actually hitting above .300, but with just 13 homers, his lowest first-half total since 2003. He’s going deep about once every 22 at-bats, a rate that hasn’t been so low for him since his forgotten days as a Minnesota Twin. Ortiz homered once every 10 at-bats last season, and I foresee a similar spike in production in the second half.

• J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers: I’ve been warning folks about Hardy since his hot start in May. I realize he’s a young player experiencing a breakout season with, but it may be time to quit while you’re ahead. Hardy’s 18 homers at the midway point are probably more than you could have dreamed of when you drafted him, considering he went deep just 25 times in 302 career minor league games and 14 times in 500 major league at-bats in ‘05 and ’06 combined. His average has also steadily declined since May (he batted .220 in June), so see if you can deal Hardy for a more proven commodity.

• Orlando Cabrera, Los Angeles Angels: You drafted him for his speed, but Cabrera’s lofty numbers at the plate this year (.329, 48 RBIs) have been the bigger story. They’re even more eye-opening when you realize the 10-year pro is a career .273 hitter, has never hit over .300 in a season, and is on pace for more RBIs than his previous career best (96), which came way back in 2001 when he was a Montreal Expo (remember them?). Expect Cabrera to still give you the speed you need, but don’t count on the same offensive output after the break.