Thursday, November 08, 2007

Talkin' baseball ... in November

I've totally neglected baseball on this blog for a while now, mostly because of the insane passion I and others have for all things football, and partly because my fantasy baseball team should have been put out of its misery somewhere around June. But with all the hot stove talk and the recent GM meetings in Orlando I thought I'd weigh in on a few of the rumored (and actual) offseason moves from a fantasy perspective.


I've always had this idea of the meetings being these top-secret negotiating sessions, where GMs and agents are having high level trade talks using sophisticated bargaining tactics in dark corners of the hotel bar at 3 in the morning. Then you realize most of the people involved are basically nerds and it's probably no different than when you or I are negotiating a deal in fantasy, which leads to exchanges that are probably something like this imagined conversation between the Yankees' Brian Cashman and agent Scott Shapiro:





Scott Shapiro:Hey Brian, what's up?
Brian Cashman: Not much Scott, just waiting for my luggage.
SS: Cool, man. How bout this weather down here, huh?
BC: Yeah. I see you're dressed for the occasion.
SS: Ha ha ha, yup. My wife bought this for me. You like it? I'm ready to get my party on. Hey so how about that A-Rod, huh? Is he a character or what? $350 million?! Wouldn't mind getting my 10 percent of that, ha ha ha.
BC: Yeah.
SS: So Brian, listen, I know we haven't really talked since the whole Carl Pavano thing went down ... I'm really sorry that didn't turn out the way we hoped. I hope there's no hard feelings between us bud ...
BC: Nope.
SS: ... because I know Carl really feels bad about everything that happened, but he's working really hard to get back in shape, and he really would like to pitch for the Yankees again somewhere down the road, honest he would. He really loves New York, and he's working extra hard this time ...
BC: It's OK Scott.
SS: OK great, because I'm just saying, Carl is really sorry he took all that money from you guys but he wants to make it up to you sometime, and so do I. And actually, I know this sounds crazy and I know you and George told me never to speak to you again but I see you guys are really hurting for pitching and I've got the perfect guy: Carlos Silva. We're only looking for five years, $70 million, I really think that'd be a bargain ...
BC: I think we'll pass, Scott.
SS: Really? Because this guy would be a perfect fit for the Yankees, he's ace material and he really, really wants to pitch in New York ..
BC: We're good.
SS: OK, but I'm just sayin, think about it bud. Hey I gotta run, they're doing karaoke down in the lounge, you wanna come?
BC: No thanks.
SS: Alright, well hey, you know where to reach me if you change your mind.
BC: Uh huh.


Alright enough of that, Let's start with Mr. Alex Rodriguez, the game's greatest player who apparently nobody wants. Maybe it has something to do with his outrageous demands and the Yankees' refusal to jump in the bidding war and drive up the price for that greedy little creep Scott Boras, but right now we have no idea where A-Rod will end up. Anaheim? Boston? San Francisco? Chicago? Or back in New York, with the Mets or even the Yankees? We'll have to wait and see .... personally I think the Yankees might get back into it after A) Boras finds out there's nobody else willing to come close to what he's asking for and he has to come crawling back to the Steinbrenners with hat in hand and B) they realize Wilson Betemit just isn't going to cut it next year at third base. But regardless of where he ends up, in fantasy, A-Rod is still A-Rod and should be the No. 1 player on your draft board. He's that good.


Sticking with the Yankees, seems like they're unwilling to deal their young pitchers (Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy), even if it means bringing back Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana. A move to New York would bring a spike to both those guys' fantasy value, even though they're already in the upper-echelon for their respective positions. Cabrera is the one guy who could come close to replicating A-Rod's monstrous 2007 numbers and would be in a tremendous everyday lineup, and Santana would have better offensive support and a chance to win 20 games. As for the young pitchers mentioned, I'd take a long look at each of them on draft day, because they've already shown glimpses of their potential and now get a chance to be full-time members of the Yankees' rotation.

There was one actual trade made at the mettings, and that was a five-player deal that involved Brad Lidge going to the Phillies. He's clearly going to be the Phils' closer next year, with Brett Myers moving back into the rotation. We all know the story on Lidge, he's got great stuff but the mental makeup is what you worry about, and a relocation and a fresh start can only help him get his mind right. His strikeout potential (88 in 67 innings last year) make him at least a second-tier closer to target next year, although we'll have to see how he responds after he gives up his first bomb in the Citizens Bank bandbox. Myers actually responded well to the job change, but he's needed more in the Phils' rotation. As for the Astros, the main commodity they got back was OF Michael Bourn, who up until now has been strictly a speed guy (.277, six RBIs, 18 steals in 119 at-bats last season) but should get a chance to play everyday and prove he can hit. He's somebody to watch.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dave threw out an outrageous scenario that involved A-Rod in Cardinal red. Any chance from your perspective? And also...if A-Rod does go to a lower budget team will it destroy that team in the future due to the amount of money they are handing to one player?

JASON BARTOLONE said...

I'd say no chance unless the Cards find some wheelbarrows of cash buried under the old Busch Stadium. A-Rod is going to the highest bidder, pure and simple, and frankly I don't think St. Louis is that dumb, so that's a compliment.

A-Rod's long-term deal is only going to be crippling to a team that isn't basically ensured of continuous revenue stream for years to come, whether it be from a new stadium, their own regional sports network, steady attendance figures and of course a consistent winning product on the field (and preferably all of these). There are only a handful of teams out there that can meet those requirements and thereby protect themselves when A-Rod is a 43-year-old slugger making $32 mil a year. There are only a few clubs that make sense as players in the A-Rod game (Yanks, Sox, etc.), becuase yeah, most of the other franchises would collapse without the other long-term sources of income to help offset A-Rod's salary.