BRADENTON, Fla. - Poor Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Will they ever catch a break?
This team's already into its second decade of underachieving - 14 straight losing seasons. Will 2007 be any different? Hard to say. But it's not like there isn't any talent there, and that's what us fantasy nerds are interested in.
Start with OF Jason Bay, the Buccos' most serious fantasy threat. The late-blooming Canadian had offseason knee surgery, and that fact coupled with his big drop-off in steals from 2005 to 2006 (21-11) has me a little concerned in that department. However, his power numbers should be just fine, especially with the addition of impact bat Adam LaRoche in the lineup this season. Bay's a solid second- or third-rounder and would be a fine OF to build around.
As for LaRoche, his breakout '05 campaign (.285/32/90) with the Braves made him a valuable trading chip, and the Pirates gave up closer Mike Gonzalez to get him. The first baseman will bat cleanup in front of Bay in the hopes he'll give a pretty stagnant offense some life. It remains to be seen if the still-developing 27-year-old will turn it up a notch at the plate, and it's probably a little premature to say the lefty will hit 40 homers this year playing home games at PNC Park. Still, I don't think similar production to last year is out of the question, which means he's a no-brainer for NL-only leagues and a good backup 1B in mixed leagues.
C Ronny Paulino, who doubled and hit a two-run homer Saturday in a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, is an up-and-coming hitter who deserves a look in deep leagues. 3B Freddy Sanchez opened everybody's eyes by winning the NL batting title (.347) last year, and while he could also be eligible at 2B, which would boost his value, he's pretty much a one-stat wonder. Ditto goes for leadoff man Chris Duffy (26 steals in 84 games last year), who gives you speed but not much else - although we know how valuable speed is in this game.
There are a ton of young arms in the rotation, but will any of them take the leap this year? Lefty and staff "ace" Zach Duke hasn't come along as fast as the Pirates had hoped. Righty Ian Snell's had a solid spring and offers some strikeout potential as a No. 2. And Tom Gorzelanny, another lefty, has a bunch of talent too. It's your guess as to which of them - if any - make the jump in '07.
Looking for a really deep sleeper? First baseman Brad Eldred has been tearing it up in the Grapefruit League this spring, batting .524 with four homers so far. He was 3-for-4 with two doubles Saturday and showed surprising speed and athleticism for a big guy (6-5, 275 pounds). The Pirates even gave him a tryout in right field, since he's blocked by LaRoche at first. The man they call "Big Country" seems to be an all-or-nothing type guy who swings for the fences, but he's kind of intriguing. He'll likely begin the year in the minors since a broken thumb pretty much wiped out his 2006 season, and he still needs some polishing. But if he proves himself to be at least passable in the outfield, we could see him again there soon in the majors, which would put him in a tie with Adam Dunn as the majors' heaviest outfielder. For real.
Some other observations:
-We've already discussed the fantasy outlook for Pirates closer Salomon Torres. He didn't help ease my mind after surrendering a go-ahead, two-run homer in the nint to pinch-hitter Eric Duncan, once considered the Yankees' best prospect. Be ready, Matt Capps.
-It was another up-and-down outing for Yankees lefty Kei Igawa, who ran into some trouble for the second straight game: Three innings, five hits, four strikeouts, no walks, two runs allowed (on Paulino's homer). The positive is he showed some poise and found the strike zone, which will be key once he gets to the Bronx. If he can earn Joe Torre's trust and keep himself in games long enough, the offensive support is there to at least get him some wins.
-A Yankees fan was seen trying to get Alex Rodriguez to sign a copy of his children's book. It's worth nothing the fan appeared to be in his mid-40s and had no children present with him.
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3 comments:
Yo Jay...are you down in Florida right now? Hangin out at Spring Training complexes?
Two questions for ya:
#1) There's been much speculation over the steals/power situation in fantasy baseball. Some people say that getting a steal guy in the first round is better than snatching a power guy? What are your thoughts?
#2) Considering that your pitchers don't pitch every day, where would you rank them in order of importance for your draft? If you're in a 16-team league and you get a late pick do you snatch a bottom of the barallel first round offensive guy or do you try to get two top tier pitchers, one in the first round and another on the turn?
#1) On the whole, steals are more rare than HRs or RBIs. Consider this: By my count, 33 players hit 30 or more HRs last year; only 18 had 30 or more steals. So the few guys with 50-steal potential (Crawford, Reyes, etc.) who can also give you above-average offense, they can pretty much singlehandedly help you lock down the SB category, plus give you a nice boost elsewhere.
That being said, I wouldn't just pass up an elite HR/RBI guy like Howard or Big Papi either. In the first round, the idea isn't so much speed vs. power as it is asking yourself "How many categories can this guy help me in?" Ideally you want someone who can give you numbers across the board, especially with that first pick.
#2) I usually lean toward offense as opposed to pitching. Pitchers tend to be more unpredictable, and when you're looking at this year's projections I don't see a whole lot of them cracking the first two rounds or so. Santana is the one guy who's head and shoulders above everybody else, so if you can get him in that first round, by all means, go for it. After that I'd be hesitant to grab another one in the second round, because Santana is really on a tier by himself. If you can't get young Johan, go offense with that first pick, and maybe in the second round you grab a nice "second-tier" guy like Halladay, Carpenter, etc.
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