Monday, March 05, 2007

CLOSING TIME - NL

What better way to get fired up for the coming baseball season than some old school-inspired baseball gear? No, I don't work for Nike, but they do have a pretty dope collection of hats and shirts featuring old school logos. The perfect gift for the nostalgic baseball enthusiast in your life (I wear a Large) ......

Anyway, I digress. On to the closers:'

ARIZONA
Jose Valverde can drive you crazy. He's equally capable of dominating or breaking down. He lost the job last year and even got demoted to Triple A. But the good news is he pitched well after a late-season call-up and has been handed the job again to start the year. Valverde's a high-risk, high-reward type of guy, not a bad second reliever for your team, but certainly don't build your squad around him. Jorge Julio is a logical choice to replace Valverde if he falters, but sometimes he's even more inconsistent, so be warned.

ATLANTA
Bob Wickman seemed to be in the twilight of his career before the Indians dealt him to the Braves last summer. The 38-year-old truck-driver-in-another-life seemed to be rejuvenated by the move (in fact, he was pretty awesome - 18 saves, 1.04 ERA) and helped stabilize a volatile Braves bullpen. He'll try to do it again in '07, but he'll have young guns Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano firebreathing down his neck this time. You know Gonzalez - the lefty was 24-for-24 in save opportunites with the Pirates last year and could be the Braves' closer of the (near) future. And Soriano's got a live arm, too (although he's a Tommy John survivor). Wickman's worthy, Gonzalez should be stashed on your bench, and keep an eye on Soriano, too.

CHICAGO
The Cubs' fortunes have long been tied to the success of Kerry Wood, and it could be a similar story this year, although not quite the same plot. They're banking on Wood coming out of the bullpen now, perhaps as the team's closer, which means incumbent Ryan Dempster - who won't have Dusty Baker in his corner this year - is on the hot seat. As if the nine blown saves last year were helping his cause anyway. Bob Howry could also be in the mix, but Wood (assuming he steers clear of the hot tub and maybe even considers sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber on his days off) is an intriguing possibility.

CINCINNATI
David Weathers and Mike Stanton are the frontrunners right now, but do you really want to go down those roads again? The two vets might give you a couple saves, but the odds of either of them holding down the job all season are slim. Lefty Bill Bray - acquired from the Nationals in a controversial eight-player deal last year - is a possibility at some point and may have the most upside considering it's only his second big-league season. Todd Coffey was a great set-up guy but fizzled in the closer's role last year. Eddie Guardado is lingering, too, but he blew out his arm and may not be available until early summer, if at all.

COLORADO
Lefty Brian Fuentes has posted back-to-back 30-save seasons, the first Rockies pitcher to do so. You can probably expect the same this year along with an ERA somewhere around 3.00. Don't believe what your big brother told you about Rockies pitchers back in the day. Second-year man Ramon Ramirez would probably get the call if Fuentes went down but otherwise doesn't have a whole lot of value.

FLORIDA
The Marlins are essentially holding an American Idol-style open casting call (without the psychos) for the closer's job this spring after losing Joe Borowski in free agency. Lefty Taylor Tankersley did a fine job as a rookie last year in the bullpen and was seen as the front-runner but has recently been dealing with a sore arm. Other candidates include Kevin Gregg, Henry Owens and Ricky Nolasco. Yet another intriguing possibility is rookie Matt Lindstrom, a former Mormon missionary who has hit 102 mph on the radar gun and can reportedly "throw a marshmallow through a battleship." Now that I'd like to see.

HOUSTON
Brad Lidge, 2005: 70.2 IP, 103 Ks, 42 saves, 2.29 ERA
Brad Lidge, 2006: 75 IP, 104 Ks, 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
Hmm, one of those categories really doesn't jive with the other. Did Albert Pujols permanently wreck Lidge's psyche? I don't know. Something happened to the guy last year, though. The Astros even sat him in the time-out chair for a while. Can Lidge bounce back? Houston thinks so. They held onto him at the trade deadline after dangling him, even gave him a new one-year deal. At the very least Lidge will give you strikeouts and saves, and you can keep your fingers crossed he gets things figured out and lowers those ratios. Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are there in case he can't.

LOS ANGELES
Last year, Takashi Saito single-handedly gave creedence to the fantasy adage about not paying too much for saves. The 36-year-old rookie didn't exactly have Daisuke Matsuzaka-level buzz when he came over from Japan and was basically an afterthought until stepping into the closer spot in mid-May. All he did from there was post 24 saves with a 2.07 ERA and lead all major league relievers with 107 strikeouts (compared to just 24 walks). Everyone's predicting a dropoff in his second go-around, and they may prove to be right once the league gets accustomed to him, but you've got to consider Saito a solid second-tier closer to start the year. You'd also be extremely wise to handcuff him to closer-in-waiting Jonathan Broxton, a 6-3, 290-pound, 22-year-old fireballer who trailed only Saito and Lidge in strikeouts among relievers (97) last year.

MILWAUKEE
Francisco Cordero fell out of favor as the closer in Texas last year but really stepped it up after coming over to the Brewers in the Carlos Lee deal. He replaced Derrick Turnbow, so good in 2005, who wigged out and lost his magic touch. Cordero seemed to really take to the league change (4.81 ERA in Texas, 1.69 in Milwaukee), and although his outings can be somewhat of an adventure, he did save 49 games in 2004 and 37 in 2005.

NEW YORK
Assuming he stays healthy, you can pretty much pencil Billy Wagner in for about 35 saves, an ERA around 2.00 and about 90 Ks right now. He's got some live arms behind him with closer potential - Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Ambiorix Burgos - but it's hard to imagine a scenario where manager Willie Randolph replaces Wags.

PHILADELPHIA
Tom Gordon was surprisingly solid in his return to the closer role in '06 after spending a couple years setting the table for Mariano Rivera. He did have to shut it down for a few weeks late in the season with a strained shoulder, but that'll happen when you're almost 40 years old and spend your time throwing a baseball as hard as you can. Flash and the Phils are taking extra steps to make sure he stays in top form this season, as there isn't a whole lot of depth behind him right now. Ryan Madson and Antonio Alfonseca aren't exactly enticing menu options.

PITTSBURGH
Now that Mike Gonzalez is in Atlanta, Salomon Torres is expected to get the nod for the Pirates. King Salomon did a pretty good job filling in when Gonzalez was hurt last year, racking up 12 saves, but he'd saved only five games before that in the previous nine seasons. Will he last a full year? Youngster Matt Capps is supposed to be the closer of the future, but when does the future start? And how many save opportunities will there be in the Steel City? Both of those guys are worth stashing on your roster, but temper your expectations for now.

ST. LOUIS
A hip ailment cost Jason Isringhausen a chance to pitch in the postseason for the World Series champs, but he's back now and reportedly feeling fine. So fine that last year's replacement, 25-year-old Adam Wainright, is being shifted into the rotation. Same goes for setup man Braden Looper, now a starter for the first time in his big-league career. Will Izzy be OK? He says he may need a hip replacement in a few years, which means he and the grandmothers of the world have something in common. We know he can do the job, but proceed with a lot of caution.

SAN DIEGO
The calendar continues to turn, but ageless Trevor Hoffman remains a top closing option. OK, so he's 39, so technically he's not "ageless." But he was arguably as good as ever last year, registering a 2.14 ERA and leading the league in saves with 46. If some unlucky accident should befall him, the Padres have two tremendous options - Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith - warming up in the pen.

SAN FRANCISCO
You pretty much know the deal with Armando Benitez. He's a so-so closer getting up there in age who battled knee problems last year. The trade rumors were swirling big-time this offseason, particularly those involving him going back to the Marlins. Red flags abound. Keep serious tabs on youngsters Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum waiting in the wings. Odds favor one of them taking over at some point, and with a much higher ceiling than Benitez's.

WASHINGTON
We know what Chad Cordero is capable of when everything goes right (47 saves, 1.82 ERA in 2005) ... we also saw what happens when he gets fewer chances and is the only reliable reliever on a bad team (29/3.19 last year). How many chances will the low-brimmed one get from what looks like an awful Nationals squad this year? Consider '05 his high-water mark, which means he'll be solid again but probably won't crack the 30-save barrier.

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