Sunday, May 18, 2008

I'm buying Ryan Howard (and a Philly cheesesteak)

Ryan Howard is trying to boldly go where no hitter has ever gone before: 200 strikeouts in a season.

Adam Dunn has tried his hardest. So have Jim Thome, Jose Hernandez and the late Bobby Bonds. Howard came oh-so-close last year, reaching a new single-season benchmark with 199 whiffs. But 2008 could be the year he achieves the impossible dream - the Philadelphia Phillies slugger is on pace to strike out a mind-blowing 226 times.

Now, I don't mean to get on the big guy's case. I kid because I love. Howard's homers are as beautiful as any rainbow or shooting star nature has ever produced. I won't forget the first time I witnessed Howard go yard firsthand - May 17, 2005, at Citizen's Bank Park during his rookie season, a beefy solo shot as delicious as the Philly cheesesteak I enjoyed at the legendary Pat's Steaks (never Geno's!) after the game. Philly people know what I'm talking about ...



Anyway, I bring up Howard's Ks only because they're a good partial explanation for his .188 average, which probably keeps his owners up at night. They drafted Howard for his homers, of course (and he does have nine of those), but they were at least expecting him to bat his weight this season. They're probably extremely frustrated - and that's where you come in.

Now is a great time to make an offer for Howard. He won't win a batting title (that .313 average from 2006 is looking more and more like a mirage every day), but he's better than this. Remember, Howard hit .221 last April and .225 last May before getting his average up to a respectable .268 for the season. Oh, and he hit 47 homers along the way. Could your team use some of those?

Howard is just one of several great buy-low candidates. Here are some more:

g Justin Verlander has pitched a little better than his 1-7 record indicates. His strikeout rate is way down (about five Ks per nine innings, compared to eight K/9 last year), which has to be a concern. But Verlander's also had terrible run support - he's only getting about 2.3 runs per nine innings from the Detroit Tigers, one of the lowest marks of all the league's starters. If you believe the disappointing Tigers' bats will eventually heat up, good things could be on the way for their ace.

g Victor Martinez is homerless, a troubling fact for anyone who made the Cleveland Indians star their starting catcher. Part of the reason is he's putting the ball on the ground too much - a 2.5 ground ball/fly ball ratio. Last year, when he went deep 25 times, that ratio was down to 1.23. His batting average has been just fine (.320 through Saturday), so things should start to even out, and the round-trippers will come.

g Eric Byrnes vaulted up the draft boards after last year's .286, 21-homer, 50-steal campaign, but those who paid a high price for him this season are probably wishing more of his TV appearances came in the highlights and less in the pregame nonsense. He's batting .222 with just four homers and four steals, a fact partly attributed to sore legs that have bothered him for much of the year. Byrnes reports they're getting better, however, which should help boost his all-around game. It might not cost you much right now to get a possible 20-20 (or better) guy.

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