A few random insights into my Top 50 players list:
Albert Pujols is the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick in almost every rankings, including mine. But I went with Alex Rodriguez at No. 2 over Hanley Ramirez because I think A-Rod still has at least another year of elite production and could rival Pujols' offensive numbers. If you look at what Rodriguez did last year despite the missed games with a hip injury and the fallout from his steroid admission, you could easily make a case this will be a special year for him.
But I'd still be thrilled to build my team around Han-Ram at shortstop, even though his steals totals have been in decline.
Just a personal preference, but I don't like taking pitchers in the first round, which is why Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum are just outside the top 10. And surprise - I like Halladay this year in the NL just slightly more than fantasy favorite Lincecum.
Evan Longoria edges David Wright as my top third baseman. I just can't put Wright's awful 2009 out of my mind, even though he says this year will be different.
Adrian Gonzalez is a tad higher on my list than some others I've seen. That's in the hopes that he gets traded somewhere this season - Boston, perhaps? He'd have hit 50 HRs or more last year if he didn't play home games in Petco Park.
I'm a little down on Ichiro Suzuki this year. Last season's leg troubles and declining SB/runs totals scare me a little.
I have similar concerns about Brian Roberts, who's stolen base numbers have dropped from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past three seasons and who's still recovering from a herniated disk that's kept him out of spring training games so far. But with 2B being such a shallow position he might be a risk I'm willing to take.
Jonathan Broxton is the only closer who cracks the top-50. And I'd still probably avoid taking him (or any closer) that high.
B.J. Upton rounds out the list in the hopes he'll have a bounce-back year at the plate. He could be a steal.
Showing posts with label Jonathan Broxton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jonathan Broxton. Show all posts
Friday, March 19, 2010
Sunday, August 24, 2008
The crazy world of closers
Closers can drive you crazy. No position in fantasy is more polarizing or volatile from year to year.
The fact that only one man on one team in any given game can possibly earn a save makes that category scarce and hard to predict. A comparison of last year's top 10 closers and this year's saves leaders illustrates the point.
Scanning last year's list, we see a few familiar names. Jose Valverde, 2007's major league saves leaders (47) with the Arizona Diamondbacks, could match that total this year with his new team, the Houston Astros. Francisco Rodriguez, tied for fifth last year with 40 saves, is threatening Bobby Thigpen's record of 57 this year. And Francisco Cordero, Trevor Hoffman and Bobby Jenks probably won't return to the 40-save plateau but have been solid nonetheless.
But that doesn't even account for half the list.
What happened to Joe Borowski, second in the league last year with 45 saves? He managed only six this year (with an unsightly 7.56 ERA) for the Cleveland Indians while wasting away on the DL and ultimately getting released.
What about J.J. Putz? He too has spent more time on the DL than the field for the Seattle Mariners, not even recording a quarter of last year's 40 saves and posting an ERA almost three full runs higher.
What of Takashi Saito? He was off to another fine start (17 saves) before suffering an elbow injury. Now at 38, his future as the Los Angeles Dodgers' closer is in jeopardy with young gun Jonathan Broxton taking his place.
How about Todd Jones? His dreadful ratios (4.97 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) weren't that much of a shock, but with the Detroit Tigers' struggles this year, his 18 saves aren't even half of last year's total (38). Now he's on his second DL stint of the year and might not return.
And finally, where's Chad Cordero? After 37 saves in '07 with the Washington Nationals, he went 0-for-2008 and is out for the year with a torn labrum.
Those aren't the only horror stories: Veteran Billy Wagner might not appear in a New York Mets uniform again this year; Huston Street's stock is plummeting with the Oakland A's; Eric Gagne's tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers has been a disaster; injuries spoiled Rafael Soriano's season for the Atlanta Braves; the Texas Rangers' C.J. Wilson went down in flames; and a creaky Jason Isringhausen recently told some St. Louis Cardinals personnel he's "done."
Sure, the biggest names haven't disappointed - Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon have been stupendous, to no one's surprise. But consider these other surprise standouts:
Brad Lidge looked finished in Houston but has been outstanding for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Few people heard of George Sherrill before this year, but he'll finish with more than 30 saves for the Baltimore Orioles, despite his recent shoulder problem.
The Kansas City Royals' Joakim Soria and the San Francisco Giants' Brian Wilson are both top-10 closers. So much for guys on bad teams not getting save opportunities.
Former retiree Troy Percival is closing in on 30 saves with the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, and if not for his various injuries he'd have 40 already.
Chris Perez has emerged as a stopper in his rookie season - the Cardinals' third ninth-inning option this year.
B.J. Ryan continues to get the job done for the Toronto Blue Jays, just 15 months after Tommy John surgery.
Someone named Brad Ziegler has been almost untouchable and has unseated Street in Oakland.
The lesson is this: saves can be found everywhere, and your best-laid plans for your bullpen at the start of the season will probably go awry. Keep that in mind as you're speculating on the waiver wire for saves and debating whether to keep a closer for next year.
The fact that only one man on one team in any given game can possibly earn a save makes that category scarce and hard to predict. A comparison of last year's top 10 closers and this year's saves leaders illustrates the point.
Scanning last year's list, we see a few familiar names. Jose Valverde, 2007's major league saves leaders (47) with the Arizona Diamondbacks, could match that total this year with his new team, the Houston Astros. Francisco Rodriguez, tied for fifth last year with 40 saves, is threatening Bobby Thigpen's record of 57 this year. And Francisco Cordero, Trevor Hoffman and Bobby Jenks probably won't return to the 40-save plateau but have been solid nonetheless.
But that doesn't even account for half the list.
What happened to Joe Borowski, second in the league last year with 45 saves? He managed only six this year (with an unsightly 7.56 ERA) for the Cleveland Indians while wasting away on the DL and ultimately getting released.
What about J.J. Putz? He too has spent more time on the DL than the field for the Seattle Mariners, not even recording a quarter of last year's 40 saves and posting an ERA almost three full runs higher.
What of Takashi Saito? He was off to another fine start (17 saves) before suffering an elbow injury. Now at 38, his future as the Los Angeles Dodgers' closer is in jeopardy with young gun Jonathan Broxton taking his place.
How about Todd Jones? His dreadful ratios (4.97 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) weren't that much of a shock, but with the Detroit Tigers' struggles this year, his 18 saves aren't even half of last year's total (38). Now he's on his second DL stint of the year and might not return.
And finally, where's Chad Cordero? After 37 saves in '07 with the Washington Nationals, he went 0-for-2008 and is out for the year with a torn labrum.
Those aren't the only horror stories: Veteran Billy Wagner might not appear in a New York Mets uniform again this year; Huston Street's stock is plummeting with the Oakland A's; Eric Gagne's tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers has been a disaster; injuries spoiled Rafael Soriano's season for the Atlanta Braves; the Texas Rangers' C.J. Wilson went down in flames; and a creaky Jason Isringhausen recently told some St. Louis Cardinals personnel he's "done."
Sure, the biggest names haven't disappointed - Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon have been stupendous, to no one's surprise. But consider these other surprise standouts:
Brad Lidge looked finished in Houston but has been outstanding for the Philadelphia Phillies.
Few people heard of George Sherrill before this year, but he'll finish with more than 30 saves for the Baltimore Orioles, despite his recent shoulder problem.
The Kansas City Royals' Joakim Soria and the San Francisco Giants' Brian Wilson are both top-10 closers. So much for guys on bad teams not getting save opportunities.
Former retiree Troy Percival is closing in on 30 saves with the upstart Tampa Bay Rays, and if not for his various injuries he'd have 40 already.
Chris Perez has emerged as a stopper in his rookie season - the Cardinals' third ninth-inning option this year.
B.J. Ryan continues to get the job done for the Toronto Blue Jays, just 15 months after Tommy John surgery.
Someone named Brad Ziegler has been almost untouchable and has unseated Street in Oakland.
The lesson is this: saves can be found everywhere, and your best-laid plans for your bullpen at the start of the season will probably go awry. Keep that in mind as you're speculating on the waiver wire for saves and debating whether to keep a closer for next year.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Out on a Lidge
Well, that didn't take too long. Brad Lidge's days as the Astros' closer are over, at least "for the foreseeable future." Manager Phil Garner mercifully pulled the plug on Lidge, who's never been the same since Albert Pujols abused him in the 2005 playoffs. Lidge's two ugly outings in the first week of the season were enough to get him buried at the back of Houston's bullpen in favor of new closer Dan Wheeler, sho responded by notching a save Monday.
Lidge's value is virtually nil at this point, so he's safe to dump in most leagues. His roster spot in Houston should be pretty secure, but I'm not sure how much value he'll have as a middle-relief guy, and he may never get that closer's job back unless everybody else really blows it. If you built your staff around Lidge, my condolences (sucker). If you took a chance on him and are loking for another reliever to take his spot, here are some candidates:
• Wheeler is an obvious first choice. He was a popular draftee in a lot of leagues because of the uncertainty surrounding Lidge, although we weren't expecting him to take over this quickly. Wheeler's never been a closer before in the majors, and he won't approach Lidge's strikeout totals, but he's had two nice years in Houston and is an obvious replacement candidate.
• Salomon Torres might have been skipped over in some shallow mixed leagues, but he won't be available for long if he keeps this up. The guy leads the league in saves so far (4), so ride the hot hand. Matt Capps has been a steady set-up man so far in Pittsburgh, but Torres is keeping him at bay for now.
• Next up is a trio of low-level guys who may be out on the waiver wire but are getting the job done. Ryan Dempster's been fine, working two scoreless innings for two saves, and his job's safe. Armando Benitez says he's almost 100 percent healthy, and believe it or not, he's had success as a closer before. And David Weathers has been the man for Cincinnati so far and is worth trotting out there for the time being. After all, saves are saves
• Al Reyes is probably the best option in the Devil Rays' bullpen, but that's kind of like saying "she's the hottest chick at the retirement home." Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but the veteran was an effective reliever the last time we saw him in St. Louis, and he has the Rays' only save so far. There won't be many to go around for Tampa, but Reyes is the best bet if you're really in dire straits.
• David Riske is the Royals' temporary closer until Octavio Dotel comes back, but I'd keep my distance. A better bet might be little-known Rule 5 draft pick Joakim Soria, a 22-year-old who was fantastic in spring training and before that in the Mexican Pacific League in the winter. And you know how tough the Mexican Pacific League is! Soria's got three scoreless innings under his belt already as a setup man, so keep tabs on him. Dotel is no sure thing.
• If the vets above aren't available, or if you're just not dying for saves at the moment, may I suggest going with a quality set-up man? The two I really recommend are two L.A. dudes, the Angels' Scot Shields, probably the best set-up guy out there, and young Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers. Shields will get saves whenever Francisco Rodriguez is tired (or when they identify that mysterious substance on K-Rod's cap), but he'll also notch a handful of wins and give you some great ratios. Ditto for the studly Broxton, who has five strikeouts in four scoreless innings thus far and will someday steal the closer's job from Takashi Saito, perhaps before the season's over.
Finally, here's the Youtube clip of the Cincinnati mayor's Opening Day "pitch" I promised. Enjoy.
Lidge's value is virtually nil at this point, so he's safe to dump in most leagues. His roster spot in Houston should be pretty secure, but I'm not sure how much value he'll have as a middle-relief guy, and he may never get that closer's job back unless everybody else really blows it. If you built your staff around Lidge, my condolences (sucker). If you took a chance on him and are loking for another reliever to take his spot, here are some candidates:
• Wheeler is an obvious first choice. He was a popular draftee in a lot of leagues because of the uncertainty surrounding Lidge, although we weren't expecting him to take over this quickly. Wheeler's never been a closer before in the majors, and he won't approach Lidge's strikeout totals, but he's had two nice years in Houston and is an obvious replacement candidate.
• Salomon Torres might have been skipped over in some shallow mixed leagues, but he won't be available for long if he keeps this up. The guy leads the league in saves so far (4), so ride the hot hand. Matt Capps has been a steady set-up man so far in Pittsburgh, but Torres is keeping him at bay for now.
• Next up is a trio of low-level guys who may be out on the waiver wire but are getting the job done. Ryan Dempster's been fine, working two scoreless innings for two saves, and his job's safe. Armando Benitez says he's almost 100 percent healthy, and believe it or not, he's had success as a closer before. And David Weathers has been the man for Cincinnati so far and is worth trotting out there for the time being. After all, saves are saves
• Al Reyes is probably the best option in the Devil Rays' bullpen, but that's kind of like saying "she's the hottest chick at the retirement home." Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but the veteran was an effective reliever the last time we saw him in St. Louis, and he has the Rays' only save so far. There won't be many to go around for Tampa, but Reyes is the best bet if you're really in dire straits.
• David Riske is the Royals' temporary closer until Octavio Dotel comes back, but I'd keep my distance. A better bet might be little-known Rule 5 draft pick Joakim Soria, a 22-year-old who was fantastic in spring training and before that in the Mexican Pacific League in the winter. And you know how tough the Mexican Pacific League is! Soria's got three scoreless innings under his belt already as a setup man, so keep tabs on him. Dotel is no sure thing.
• If the vets above aren't available, or if you're just not dying for saves at the moment, may I suggest going with a quality set-up man? The two I really recommend are two L.A. dudes, the Angels' Scot Shields, probably the best set-up guy out there, and young Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers. Shields will get saves whenever Francisco Rodriguez is tired (or when they identify that mysterious substance on K-Rod's cap), but he'll also notch a handful of wins and give you some great ratios. Ditto for the studly Broxton, who has five strikeouts in four scoreless innings thus far and will someday steal the closer's job from Takashi Saito, perhaps before the season's over.
Finally, here's the Youtube clip of the Cincinnati mayor's Opening Day "pitch" I promised. Enjoy.
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