Warning signs for pitchers

Prepping for fantasy baseball season? It's never too early, you know, especially with that magical time of year unfolding here in sunny Florida and out in Arizona.

As you begin to consider who will make up your fantasy squad this year, Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci offers a very helpful guide to young pitchers who may be at risk of injury or ineffectiveness. The venerable baseball scribe identifies those hurlers who could suffer from what he's coined the "Verducci Effect," a breakdown that occurs after pitching too many innings too soon.

It's just a guide, of course, but among those at most risk: the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain, the Reds' Homer Bailey and Rick Porcello of the Tigers. Just something to think about as you start setting your big board for the draft.

Reds loaded with fantasy prospects

SARASOTA, Fla. - Fantasy players on the prowl for young talent might want to drop by Ed Smith Stadium some time in the next month or so.

There's a whole host of prospects on display at the Cincinnati Reds' spring training complex, and you'd be wise to familiarize yourself with the names of some players who could make a big fantasy impact this year.

Start with outfielder Jay Bruce (above), Baseball America's 2007 Minor League Player of the Year. Bruce's skills at the plate have been favorably compared to Larry Walker, and he's a strong candidate to win the Reds' starting CF job at just 20 years of age.

New Reds manager Dusty Baker got his first live glimpse of Bruce's swing Wednesday during the team's first full-squad workout and came away impressed.

"He has a very good stroke," Baker told the Reds' team Web site. "He comes through the zone with good balance, keeps his head still and down. Talking to him, he's very confident he can hit without being arrogant. That's the first thing you like to see in a young hitter."

Bruce doesn't have the speed of a prototypical leadoff hitter, which is a slot the team is looking to fill at the same time as its open CF spot. Kenny Lofton's name has popped up as a possible acquisition, which would probably keep Bruce in Triple-A to start the year. Still, you'll want to keep track of how he progresses this spring and if he can win over Baker and Reds management. It won't be long before Bruce breaks through at the big-league level, so I advise you to get in on the ground floor.

Another young infielder to keep tabs on is Joey Votto, who appears to be in line to take over the majority of playing time at 1B from Scott Hatteberg this season. Votto flashed his skills in a brief big-league stint last year - .321, four HRs, 17 RBIs in 84 at-bats - and could be an overlooked source of power in deep leagues in 2008.

The Reds aren't without pitching prospects, either. You've probably heard the name Homer Bailey, a much-heralded, 21-year-old righty who made his debut last season. Things didn't go quite as expected in Bailey's rookie year (4-2, 5.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 45.1 innings), but that's no reason to give up on the kid so soon. Bailey is a lock for the Reds' starting rotation, probably as the No. 3, and will be given every opportunity to show off the repertoire that led some scouts to place him on par with the Yankees' Phil Hughes.

Two other young pitchers to watch: 24-year-old Edinson Volquez, acquired in the Josh Hamilton deal and once the Texas Rangers' top minor league pitcher, and Johnny Cueto, a 22-year-old rookie with an outside shot at making the big-league roster out of spring training.

Price is right, and other young arms

It's understandable if you didn't catch baseball's amateur draft on ESPN2 this week. Not everyone is lucky enough to have absolutely nothing better to do at 2 p.m. on a Thursday.

I, on the other hand, watched most of the first round, and at the risk of giving away too many inside secrets to my fantasy competitors, there's one name I can share with you: David Price, the No. 1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Price, a 21-year-old left-hander from Vanderbilt, is already a polished product who could be on the fast track to the majors. Of course, just because he was the top player taken doesn't make him can't-miss - anybody still waiting for Paul Wilson's career to pan out? - but Price is a guy to at least file away in your memory banks.


It's always a good idea for fantasy players to familiarize themselves with some of the game's top prospects, even if you're not in a keeper league.

That kind of knowledge can put you ahead of the curve when rookie talent enters your league, and while not every call-up goes on to immediate superstardom, you'll at least have a chance at finding a rare gem who makes an impact.

Let's check in with some pitching prospects whom you may or may not already know:

• Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: Cincy has been cautious bringing along Bailey, the organization's top prospect in each of the past three seasons and one of the game's elite young arms. The 21-year-old pitched five solid innings in his major-league debut Friday night, and while he's still working on his command, his excellent fastball and curve make him someone who can certainly contribute this season and be a stud by next year.

• Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: Lincecum, a 2006 first-rounder, forced his way into the Giants' starting rotation and hasn't looked back. The righty has had a couple shaky outings, but has also held his own against Roy Oswalt twice and dominated at times. If he's not already owned in your league, there's something wrong.

• Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Hughes already made a splash this year with a near-no-hitter that was ruined by a hamstring pull. Of course, every prospect gets magnified in the fish bowl that is New York, but Hughes is the real deal. The only concern is injuries - he was already going to be sidelined until later this summer, then he rolled an ankle last week while rehabbing. But until we hear otherwise, Hughes could still be the kind of late-season difference-maker you'll want to keep in your DL spot if you can afford to do so.

• Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: Gallardo has a live arm and a four-pitch repertoire. He's currently tearing his way through Triple-A. He led all minor-league pitchers in strikeouts in 2006 (188 in 155 innings) and seems to be knocking on the door of the big leagues. The Brew Crew don't have a spot in their rotation or a pressing need for him right now, but run to the waiver wire whenever this young man gets called up.

"D'oh!"

You might end making an annoyed grunt of your own if you haven't already added Homer Bailey.

Bailey, the Reds' top prospect the past three seasons, is set to make his major league debut Friday against the Cleveland Indians. In case you don't already know, Bailey is considered one of the premier pitching prospects in the game, on par with Phil Hughes and Tim Lincecum. The 6-foor-4, 204-pounder can touch the high-90s with his fastball, and he's 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA at Triple-A Louisville.

But before you get too excited, realize the stars aren't quite aligned for Bailey to be an immediate success. While Cincinnati's taken a very careful approach bringing Bailey through its system, this was because they don't exactly have a good track record of success with young arms. Bailey's easily one of the most anticipated Reds rookies in recent memory, so he'll be feeling a lot of pressure to be the savior of an extremely disappointing team that isn't very good. On top of all that, his first big league start comes against one of the premier offenses from the superior American League. That's an awful lot of strikes against the kid.

That being said, Bailey is still someone worth picking up, and that doesn't just go for keeper leagues. If you can get your hands on him, I'd probably keep him on the bench for now and see how this first game goes. He's got the goods to contribute, and the Reds have said he'll get at least another start regardless of how the first one goes. So let's see what he's got.

I'll have a little more on Bailey and some other pitching prospects in my next post.