Thursday, August 21, 2008

Is McFadden this year's Peterson?

Inquiring minds want to know: Who is this year's Adrian Peterson?

AP dropped a bomb on fantasy leagues last year, rushing for 1,341 yards and 12 touchdowns after starting his rookie year in a platoon situation for the Minnesota Vikings. His 296-yard performance in Week 9 against the vaunted San Diego Chargers defense is one that will live in fantasy lore for the ages.

Peterson was taken in the fifth round or later in many drafts last year, but now the secret's out, and he has vaulted to the No. 2 running back ranking behind fantasy stalwart LaDainian Tomlinson. You'll no longer get such a huge return on your investment, since a minimum of 1,300 yards and 12 TDs will be expected from Peterson this year as a first-rounder.

So who's this year's Peterson?

Darren McFadden of the Oakland Raiders seems to be a popular answer. He's the highest rated rookie runner on most lists, including mine, and with good reason: he was an explosive and versatile collegiate back at Arkansas, as dominant as Peterson was at Oklahoma.



The only problem is while Peterson landed in a perfect situation in Minnesota, McFadden's is a bit murkier. Oakland's offensive line isn't quite up to par with last year's group in Minnesota (which included two Pro Bowlers). And Peterson only had to compete with veteran Chester Taylor for carries, while McFadden must fend off both Justin Fargas (who broke out for 1,000 yards last year) and Michael Bush, a 2007 fourth-round draft pick and a former Heisman Trophy contender at Louisville who sat out last year with a broken leg.

That doesn't mean McFadden can't have the same impact as Peterson - it just makes it less likely. And it means you'd be foolish to draft McFadden - or any other rookie - counting on him to be your No. 1 RB.

Here's a look at the rest of the rankings:

1. Tomlinson, Chargers: Even with last year's knee injury (which didn't require surgery), he's simply too good and too consistent to go any lower than No. 1 overall.

2. Peterson, Vikings.

3. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles: Played every game last year and got a contract extension from the notoriously stingy Birds. It's safe to remove the "injury risk" tag and simply say he's good.

4. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: An unexciting but consistent pick with very few question marks - that's what wins championships.

5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams: Holdout has ended, and O-line simply has to be better than last year. A risk, for sure, but he has more fantasy upside than any player ranked below him.

6. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: Will be running people over (pun intended) this year as Buffalo's offensive focal point.

7. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins: New coach Jim Zorn plans to put the ball in Portis' hands a lot.

8. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: Mike Martz is supposed to work wonders - but how did that work out for Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell last year? Gore should at least see more passes (but then again, look at who's throwing them). Be cautious.

9. Marion Barber, Dallas Cowboys: At his best when he's part of a one-two punch; will be a TD machine again only if rookie Felix Jones can fill the departed Julius Jones' shoes.

10. Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers: Camp hasn't been encouraging, but he's got fresher legs and more job security than backs ranked below him.

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