Saturday, June 23, 2007

Ailing arms

Got an injured pitcher? Join the club.

Curt Schilling and A.J. Burnett have sore shoulders. Jason Schmidt’s shoulder is even more messed up. Rickety Randy Johnson’s old back problems are flaring up, and even the usually durable Dontrelle Willis and John Lackey are talking about missing starts.

Injuries are virtually unavoidable when it comes to your pitching staff. Whether it’s mildly bad news (Schilling likely just needs to take two aspirin and some cortisone shots) or a disastrous diagnosis (Schmidt is done for the year), these things can be expected when a human being is asked to violently hurl a baseball at a catcher’s mitt a few thousand times a year.

Fantasy players were counting on some serious innings from the starters mentioned above. I had Schmidt pegged as a solid contributor this year – and so did the Los Angeles Dodgers, who gave him $47 million this offseason in exchange for one victory in 2007. Schilling, just a few weeks removed from a near no-hitter, saw a quick decline in velocity and is obviously an injury risk at age 40. Ditto for the 43-year-old Johnson, who’s found the fountain of youth in the Arizona desert but may have to pitch through pain the rest of the year. Burnett’s had injuries before but says he’ll be OK, and the aches experienced by Willis and Lackey seem like nothing, but you never know.

So, if you own one of these pitchers, what’s your backup plan? Of course it depends on the severity of the injury – Schmidt owners have to think about long-term replacements, while Schilling owners might be best served just grabbing a few spot starters. Either way, here are some options:

• You may have an opportunity to get an ailing ace dirt-cheap, especially if the rest of your league is in zombie mode. Chris Carpenter, Rich Harden and Pedro Martinez are all expected back at some point this year, and although all three carry considerable risk they could serve as a serious ace up your sleeve. Carpenter and Martinez probably won’t be useful until late summer, but Harden returns from the DL next week and will initially work out of the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen.

• It’s only a matter of time before the Boston Red Sox call up Jon Lester. The promising young lefty has been taking it slow in the minors as he works his way back from non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The Fenway front office is rightfully concerned about Lester’s long-term health and won’t say if he’ll be coming up to take Schilling’s place, but keep an eye out for his return.

• We do know for certain Chad Billingsley is replacing Schmidt, at least for the time being. The big boy (6-foot, 244 pounds) experienced some ups and downs as a rookie starter last year and had been used out of the bullpen in ‘07, but now he's easing back into a starting role. It'll be slow going, but at the tender age of 22, this youngster has lots of upside.

• Baltimore Orioles rookie Jeremy Guthrie hasn't given up more than three runs in any of his 10 starts this season. He'd probably have more than four wins too if it weren't for the O's sorry offense and bullpen, but it's hard to ignore Guthrie's 2.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP at this point.

• The San Diego Padres' Justin Germano is another unheralded youngster worth checking out. His numbers (5-1, 2.63 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) since taking Clay Hensley's spot in the rotation have been dynamite, so don't hesitate to throw him out there, at least until he cools off.

• There’s also the ageless Kenny Rogers, who looked great in his first start of the year Friday night for the Detroit Tigers after experiencing a blood clot in his left (throwing) shoulder. It seems he's fully recovered, so we pretty much know what to expect from Rogers – namely a half-decent ERA and a good shot at some Ws. Cameramen beware.

Josh Johnson just came off the DL and promptly had his world rocked by the Chicago White Sox in his first game back. Your leaguemates may have brushed him off, but the right-hander did go 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA last year for the Florida Marlins. Give him a chance.

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