Miguel Cabrera: Fat or phat?

I'm not seeing a lot of love for Miguel Cabrera this year for some reason. In the mock draft podcast we did last week, he fell out of the top 10 and all the way to 16th (average draft position in ESPN leagues: 11). And in a buddy of mine's draft the other day, Cabrera fell to him at the 17th overall pick. Seventeenth!

No doubt a lot of the bad feelings stem from last year's embarrassing binge drinking/domestic dispute episode that coincided with the Tigers coming up short in heated pennant chase. Combine that with Cabrera's oft-mentioned struggles with his weight (listed at 6-foot-4, 240 this year), and I believe that's causing some trepidation among fantasy drafters.

But Miggy has since undergone alcohol counseling and says he's given up drinking and already feels healthier. He's been incredibly durable over his career, never having played fewer than 157 games in a season since becoming a full-timer. And his numbers ... oh, those numbers.

Cabrera's averaged 33 homers and 117 RBIs a season since breaking into the league in 2003. He's a career .311 hitter. His career OPS is .925. He hit .324 last year, his highest average in three years. And he's only 26 years old! Check out his career stats compared to some other ballplayers through age 26 and notice a few of the names: Ken Griffey, Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle ...

Sure, there are a few knocks against Cabrera, and not just over his fitness level. The Tigers lineup, while good on paper, hasn't quite been durable or fearsome. And he'd be more valuable if he had stayed at 3B, a shallower position, than switching to 1B. But ultimately, the pros outweigh (pun intended) the cons, and Cabrera belongs in the top 10 or just below it in 2010.

The power of the podcast

Want some advice for your fantasy draft but too lazy to read? This mock draft podcast I took part in Friday with some of my newspaper cohorts may be just what you're looking for.

Four guys. One microphone. The top 20 fantasy players for 2010. Consider it the "books on tape" version of my Top 50 rankings, with a few twists and a healthy debate about who belongs where.

Enjoy.

Jump on Jason Heyward

It's easy to get caught up in the hype about fantasy baseball prospects. Matt Wieters was supposed to be the second coming of Yogi Berra last year, and while his rookie season was solid, particularly in the second half, he didn't quite revolutionize the catching position.

Sometimes it's best to use caution when trying to project stats for rookies or build your fantasy team around them. But sometimes there are prospects that are simply too enticing to ignore.

Jason Heyward is one of those prospects.

Heyward, Baseball America's minor league player of the year in 2009 and top prospect for this season, has been tearing up the Grapefruit League (.366/.500/.537). He's been turning heads with his power - his 6-foot-4, 245-pound frame doesn't hurt, either - to the point the Braves have considered adding special nets at their spring park to protect the parked cars from getting smashed by his monster home run shots.

Heyward's forced his way into an Opening Day starting spot in right field for Atlanta - not bad for a 20-year-old. And the Braves have a pretty good track record of knowing when a top prospect is ready for the big show - remember Andruw Jones at age 19 and Chipper Jones at 21?

Sure, Heyward doesn't have much minor league seasoning under his belt, only having been in the Braves' system since 2007. But his career .899 OPS on the farm is a great sign, and the rave reviews and Opening Day roster spot are too good to ignore. I'd be more than happy to have Heyward as my fourth or fifth outfielder this year.

- Photo by The Associated Press

New Face, New Place: Curtis Granderson, Yankees

OK, OK, Curtis Granderson can't hit left-handers - or, at least he couldn't in 2009 (.183 vs. LHP). But other than that, there's not much to dislike about the guy this year.

Granderson's move from Detroit to New York seems like a perfect match of his left-handed power and the new Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch. Some have attributed his steady decline in batting average (.249 in 2009, down from .280 in 2008 and .302 in 2007) to Granderson trying to swing for the fences - which would explain his 49-percent flyball rate and career high 30 homers last year. But for fantasy purposes, I say swing away!

It's unclear where Granderson will be slotted in the Yankees' lineup - he could bat second ahead of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, but the optimum spot for his fantasy fortunes would be somewhere around sixth or seventh, where he is free to race around the basepaths. Granderson could easily be a 20-steal, 30-homer OF this year, and if he can raise that average he'll be a steal in the middle rounds.

- Photo by The Associated Press

No Nathan in 2010

The list of elite fantasy closers got a little shorter with the news that the Twins' Joe Nathan will miss 2010 with a bum elbow.

There are very few guys (Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon) you can draft as your closer, pencil in 40 saves and not even worry about it. Nathan was one of those guys. In fact, he led the big leagues in saves (264) since 2004 - it doesn't get more consistent than that.

But now Nathan's done, and who knows if he'll ever be effective again. The Twins could turn to Jon Rauch (26 career saves) or one of their other fine set-up men with little or no closing experience. There's also been talk of a potential deal for Padres closer Heath Bell, but for the time being, Rauch is probably the best bet if you're already stuck with Nathan or just speculating for saves.

Inside the Top 50

A few random insights into my Top 50 players list:

Albert Pujols is the consensus No. 1 fantasy pick in almost every rankings, including mine. But I went with Alex Rodriguez at No. 2 over Hanley Ramirez because I think A-Rod still has at least another year of elite production and could rival Pujols' offensive numbers. If you look at what Rodriguez did last year despite the missed games with a hip injury and the fallout from his steroid admission, you could easily make a case this will be a special year for him.

But I'd still be thrilled to build my team around Han-Ram at shortstop, even though his steals totals have been in decline.

Just a personal preference, but I don't like taking pitchers in the first round, which is why Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum are just outside the top 10. And surprise - I like Halladay this year in the NL just slightly more than fantasy favorite Lincecum.

Evan Longoria edges David Wright as my top third baseman. I just can't put Wright's awful 2009 out of my mind, even though he says this year will be different.

Adrian Gonzalez is a tad higher on my list than some others I've seen. That's in the hopes that he gets traded somewhere this season - Boston, perhaps? He'd have hit 50 HRs or more last year if he didn't play home games in Petco Park.

I'm a little down on Ichiro Suzuki this year. Last season's leg troubles and declining SB/runs totals scare me a little.

I have similar concerns about Brian Roberts, who's stolen base numbers have dropped from 50 to 40 to 30 in the past three seasons and who's still recovering from a herniated disk that's kept him out of spring training games so far. But with 2B being such a shallow position he might be a risk I'm willing to take.

Jonathan Broxton is the only closer who cracks the top-50. And I'd still probably avoid taking him (or any closer) that high.

B.J. Upton rounds out the list in the hopes he'll have a bounce-back year at the plate. He could be a steal.

Fantasy Baseball 2010: Top 50

One man's thoughts on the top 50 fantasy players for 2010:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Hanley Ramirez
4. Ryan Braun
5. Chase Utley
6. Matt Kemp
7. Prince Fielder
8. Mark Teixeira
9. Carl Crawford
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Roy Halladay
12. Tim Lincecum
13. Ryan Howard
14. Joe Mauer
15. Evan Longoria
16. Justin Upton
17. Troy Tulowitzki
18. Felix Hernandez
19. David Wright
20. Jacoby Ellsbury
21. Zack Greinke
22. Ian Kinsler
23. Matt Holliday
24. CC Sabathia
25. Jimmy Rollins
26. Adrian Gonzalez
27. Mark Reynolds
28. Ichiro Suzuki
29. Derek Jeter
30. Grady Sizemore
31. Robinson Cano
32. Dustin Pedroia
33. Dan Haren
34. Jon Lester
35. Pablo Sandoval
36. Joey Votto
37. Justin Morneau
38. Ryan Zimmerman
39. Brandon Phillips
40. Jayson Werth
41. Adam Wainwright
42. Brian McCann
43. Kevin Youkilis
44. Cliff Lee
45. Brian Roberts
46. Jonathan Broxton
47. Victor Martinez
48. Justin Verlander
49. Adam Lind
50. B.J. Upton