TAMPA, Fla. - It wouldn't be a New York Yankees training camp without controversy.
The latest flap is over the "relationship" between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Don't get any ideas, Red Sox fans - I know A-Rod's recent comments about "not sleeping over Jeter's house" will give you boo-birds some ammo. But we're talking strictly about their friendship, or the perceived lack thereof in the past few years.
There was no sign of hard feelings between the two superstars when the Yankees began full-squad workouts at Legends Field on Tuesday. They were all smiles while taking batting practice together and running through some conditioning drills. And Jeter even responded to Rodriguez's comments a day later in a media session, reinforcing the idea the two aren't as close as they once were but haven't let that affect the clubhouse dynamic or play on the field.
For fantasy purposes, we have to remember these two guys have been lightning rods for controversy and headlines for most of their careers. Everything they say and do, every little happening, is going to be magnified and analyzed in the media spotlight. And while A-Rod's performance did take a slight dip last year as the Big Apple pressure-cooker took its toll, he still finished with top-flight numbers that weren't far off his career averages. And frankly, that's all that matters.
A few other thoughts:
- Johnny Damon played through a lot of pain last year, including a broken bone in his foot. He still managed 25 stolen bases, a three-year high, although he swiped only one bag in the final month of the year. Still, he didn't seem to have much trouble running some sprints (albeit not at full speed) Tuesday. I realize he's 33, but batting at the top of this Yankees lineup is a good way to ward off Father Time, and his ability to run makes him a very useful second or third outfielder.
- I think Kei Igawa is a pretty intriguing player, and judging by the 25-or-so Japanese media members who patiently waited around to talk to him Tuesday, I'm not alone. Projected as the Yankees' fifth starter, the lefty won't go very high on draft day in mixed leagues, if at all, but he should be on your radar. There's a potential for double-digit wins just by virtue of playing for the Yanks (see: Aaron Small, 2005), but of course we really don't know how he'll adjust to the American game. Not a bad guy to tack on at the end of your draft when you're just looking for names you recognize.
- No sign of Bernie Williams at camp ... not that you were going to draft him anyway, but nobody wants to see his Yankees career end with hard feelings.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Sunday, February 18, 2007
CLOSING TIME - AL
While pondering what ever happened to Semisonic, I decided to break down the various closer situations in the AL. Why? Well, because it's the one position that's directly linked to one fantasy stat (saves), and only one guy usually gets the job on each team. Also, because I'm a geek.
BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.
BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.
CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.
CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.
DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.
KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.
LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.
MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.
NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.
OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.
SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.
TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.
TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.
TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.
BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.
BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.
CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.
CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.
DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.
KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.
LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.
MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.
NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.
OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.
SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.
TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.
TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.
TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.
Foulke you!
Keith Foulke has retired without throwing a pitch for the Cleveland Indians, throwing their closer situation into a bit of disarray. Foulke was the clubhouse front-runner to win the closer's job, even though he hadn't earned a save since 2005 and hadn't really been the same since closing out the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
It's probably better this way, since the Indians won't have to pay him, and fantasy players won't have to waste a pick on the guy. And his retirement opens the door for veteran Joe Borowski to win the job. Borowski doesn't exactly have an extensive track record as a closer, but he's succeeded in the role before, in 2003 with the Cubs (33 saves) and last year with the Marlins (36 saves), so he's not a bad pick as a second-tier guy. Couple warning signs though: He's 35, he's switching back to the AL, and he actually signed with the Phillies this season as a setup guy but failed his physical.
Looking further down the Tribe's totem pole, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and the ageless Roberto Hernandez are waiting in the wings, but none of them has much appeal on draft day. Borowski's the guy for now.
Next up, I'll take a look at the rest of the closer situations around the AL, followed by the NL, so stay tuned.
It's probably better this way, since the Indians won't have to pay him, and fantasy players won't have to waste a pick on the guy. And his retirement opens the door for veteran Joe Borowski to win the job. Borowski doesn't exactly have an extensive track record as a closer, but he's succeeded in the role before, in 2003 with the Cubs (33 saves) and last year with the Marlins (36 saves), so he's not a bad pick as a second-tier guy. Couple warning signs though: He's 35, he's switching back to the AL, and he actually signed with the Phillies this season as a setup guy but failed his physical.
Looking further down the Tribe's totem pole, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and the ageless Roberto Hernandez are waiting in the wings, but none of them has much appeal on draft day. Borowski's the guy for now.
Next up, I'll take a look at the rest of the closer situations around the AL, followed by the NL, so stay tuned.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Cheat sheet
Spring has sprung. It may not be official yet, and the northerners up to their eyes in snowdrifts probably don't believe it, but players will slowly be trickling into major league camps in Florida and Arizona this week. Baseball is almost back.
With that in mind, here's my preliminary top 15 fantasy players to help you get started:
1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals:
Now a U.S. citizen, Phat Albert is the most dangerous American to wield a bat.
2. SS Jose Reyes, Mets:
One of the few players who combine outstanding speed with top-notch offensive production. He's got to be the first shortstop off the board.
3. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs:
Takes a slight dip because of the loss of 2B eligibility and the possible complacency that comes with a fat contract. But he still has 40-40 potential, and guys like that don't grow on trees. Plus, he didn't have Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez in the lineup in Washington.
4. 3B Ryan Howard, Phillies:
The secret's out this year, and you'll pay a lot more for Howard on draft day. But he could become the first player to crack 61 homers legitimately ... at least we think it's legitimate.
5. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees:
A-Rod posted elite numbers in what most considered a "down" year in 2006. I'm expecting another run at the MVP award ... and so are a million angry Yankees fans.
6. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox:
Virtually a lock for 40 homers and 130 RBIs as long as Manny is batting behind him in Beantown. Pretty much a safe bet.
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
Made a huge jump in the power department (41 HRs, 116 RBIs, both career highs) last year while still flashing some of his speed (17 SBs). Beltran will help you in multiple categories.
8. OF Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
If a Devil Ray bats .305, steals 58 bases and hits 18 home runs, does anyone notice? Fantasy players do. By the way, Crawford is 25 years old.
9. SP Johan Santana, Twins
Unquestionably the top pitcher in baseball, fantasy or otherwise. Draft him and pencil him in for 15 wins, 130-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. Move him up depending on how much your league values pitching.
10. 3B David Wright, Mets
A third-sacker capable of hitting .300 with 40 homers AND 20 steals. Now I know why the chicks dig him.
11. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
Already has the makings of a future Hall of Famer at age 23 after three stellar full seasons. Don't believe me? Check out his most similar players at baseball-reference.com. However, this news should be a tiny a concern.
12. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
Pronk was as dangerous as any hitter in the league last year before suffering a broken hand. He's an OPS machine and could make a run at an MVP if the Tribe lives up to lofty expectations.
13. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Enough evidence to suggest Utley is a considerable step ahead of the rest of the league's second basemen. There just aren't that many guys capable of doing what he can do at this position.
14. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Vlad will be on the wrong side of 30 this year, but that wouldn't scare me away from taking him early in the second round. You can still squeeze some more production out of him.
15. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
Pretty much the same story as our friend Big Papi: Like the sun rising in the East, Manny will get his 40 HRs and 130 RBIs if healthy.
With that in mind, here's my preliminary top 15 fantasy players to help you get started:
1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals:
Now a U.S. citizen, Phat Albert is the most dangerous American to wield a bat.
2. SS Jose Reyes, Mets:
One of the few players who combine outstanding speed with top-notch offensive production. He's got to be the first shortstop off the board.
3. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs:
Takes a slight dip because of the loss of 2B eligibility and the possible complacency that comes with a fat contract. But he still has 40-40 potential, and guys like that don't grow on trees. Plus, he didn't have Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez in the lineup in Washington.
4. 3B Ryan Howard, Phillies:
The secret's out this year, and you'll pay a lot more for Howard on draft day. But he could become the first player to crack 61 homers legitimately ... at least we think it's legitimate.
5. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees:
A-Rod posted elite numbers in what most considered a "down" year in 2006. I'm expecting another run at the MVP award ... and so are a million angry Yankees fans.
6. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox:
Virtually a lock for 40 homers and 130 RBIs as long as Manny is batting behind him in Beantown. Pretty much a safe bet.
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
Made a huge jump in the power department (41 HRs, 116 RBIs, both career highs) last year while still flashing some of his speed (17 SBs). Beltran will help you in multiple categories.
8. OF Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
If a Devil Ray bats .305, steals 58 bases and hits 18 home runs, does anyone notice? Fantasy players do. By the way, Crawford is 25 years old.
9. SP Johan Santana, Twins
Unquestionably the top pitcher in baseball, fantasy or otherwise. Draft him and pencil him in for 15 wins, 130-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. Move him up depending on how much your league values pitching.
10. 3B David Wright, Mets
A third-sacker capable of hitting .300 with 40 homers AND 20 steals. Now I know why the chicks dig him.
11. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
Already has the makings of a future Hall of Famer at age 23 after three stellar full seasons. Don't believe me? Check out his most similar players at baseball-reference.com. However, this news should be a tiny a concern.
12. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
Pronk was as dangerous as any hitter in the league last year before suffering a broken hand. He's an OPS machine and could make a run at an MVP if the Tribe lives up to lofty expectations.
13. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Enough evidence to suggest Utley is a considerable step ahead of the rest of the league's second basemen. There just aren't that many guys capable of doing what he can do at this position.
14. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Vlad will be on the wrong side of 30 this year, but that wouldn't scare me away from taking him early in the second round. You can still squeeze some more production out of him.
15. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
Pretty much the same story as our friend Big Papi: Like the sun rising in the East, Manny will get his 40 HRs and 130 RBIs if healthy.
Monday, January 29, 2007
Hope for Eli?
There's no question Eli Manning's development has been slower than the director's cut version of Apocalypse Now. This past season was supposed to be his breakout year - you heard it here first- but he actually seemed to take a step back in the second half. Can you count on him in 2007?
Well you probably can't draft him as your starter, at least not in 10-team leagues. Dude's way too inconsistent, and who knows what that offense will be like with Tiki Barber breaking down hot Fall fashions or whatever he'll be doing on network TV next year. But Eli could be a nice sleeper pick as a backup thanks to the hiring of QB coach Chris Palmer.
You may best remember Palmer for a disastrous two-year stint as head coach of the "expansion" Cleveland Browns from 1999-2000. So why get excited for Eli? Palmer is something of a QB guru, and although his time with Tim Couch and Co. didn't work out that well, Palmer has tutored Drew Bledsoe (when he was good), Mark Brunell (when he was good) and David Carr, and he most recently worked wonders with little-known Tony Romo in Dallas. With Palmer tutoring young Eli and newly promoted offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride calling the plays in a make-or-break year for Tom Coughlin's Giants, there is hope for that big breakout statistical season we've been waiting for.
And before we throw in the towel on Manning as an NFL QB at age 26, let's compare his stats (through three seasons) to another No. 1 pick, Mr. John Elway:
ELWAY: 42 games, 47 TDs, 52 INTs, 8,152 yards, 53 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record
ELI: 41 games, 54 TDs, 44 INTs, 8,049 yards, 54 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record
Maybe this is just the deluded Giants fan in me talking (OK, it definitely is), but I still believe there's hope for Eli in '07.
Well you probably can't draft him as your starter, at least not in 10-team leagues. Dude's way too inconsistent, and who knows what that offense will be like with Tiki Barber breaking down hot Fall fashions or whatever he'll be doing on network TV next year. But Eli could be a nice sleeper pick as a backup thanks to the hiring of QB coach Chris Palmer.
You may best remember Palmer for a disastrous two-year stint as head coach of the "expansion" Cleveland Browns from 1999-2000. So why get excited for Eli? Palmer is something of a QB guru, and although his time with Tim Couch and Co. didn't work out that well, Palmer has tutored Drew Bledsoe (when he was good), Mark Brunell (when he was good) and David Carr, and he most recently worked wonders with little-known Tony Romo in Dallas. With Palmer tutoring young Eli and newly promoted offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride calling the plays in a make-or-break year for Tom Coughlin's Giants, there is hope for that big breakout statistical season we've been waiting for.
And before we throw in the towel on Manning as an NFL QB at age 26, let's compare his stats (through three seasons) to another No. 1 pick, Mr. John Elway:
ELWAY: 42 games, 47 TDs, 52 INTs, 8,152 yards, 53 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record
ELI: 41 games, 54 TDs, 44 INTs, 8,049 yards, 54 pct. passing, 0-2 playoff record
Maybe this is just the deluded Giants fan in me talking (OK, it definitely is), but I still believe there's hope for Eli in '07.
Friday, January 19, 2007
Three favorite words in sports
PITCHERS AND CATCHERS is less than a month away, which means it's already time to get geared up for some fantasy baseball. I'm located in a prime spot here in the Sunshine State for some spring training action, so hopefully I'll be able to bring you the inside scoop on some major league camps in the near future. But for now, here are a few random thoughts on some offseason moves and how they'll impact the fantasy game:
Randy Johnson to Diamondbacks: It's no secret the Big Unit has been on a sharp decline the past two years. In 2006, his strikeouts were way down (although his 172 still put him in the top 20 in the league) and his ERA was way up (5.01). He still managed to win 17 games, but much of that was due to the tremendous run support he got from the Yankees, a blessing he likely won't enjoy in Arizona. So why should we even bother with the 43-year-old? Well, at the risk of sounding like some sort of male enhancement commercial, a comfortable Johnson should be a productive Johnson. Moving west, Randy should benefit by facing weaker NL offenses (It seems like ages ago, but he had a 2.60 ERA in 2004, his last year with the D-Backs). Factor in offseason back surgery and being closer to his family's home and farther from the pressure cooker that is New York, and the Unit could help your team in '07, provided you don't pay too much for him.
CF Willy Taveras to Rockies: There's no question Willy, acquired from the Astros in the Jason Jennings deal, can help you in the steals department. He's got wheels (34 and 33 stolen bases the past two years) and should be batting leadoff for the Rocks in '07. But the move to Coors Field and a spot in what should be a potent lineup is what really raises his stock. Of course, so far he's basically been a singles hitter with no pop (four HRs and 59 RBIs in two full seasons) and awful plate discipline (103 strikeouts/25 walks in '05; 88/34 in '06). His speed will help you, but if he can ever start figuring out how to get on base more often he could become a special player.
Relievers Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez to Braves: Blown saves were probably the biggest contributor in Atlanta's fall from the top of the NL East last season. In fact, their bullpen probably supplied TBS with more laughs than all those crappy Sex and the City reruns. That'll change this year. Their acquisition of veteran truck-driver impersonator Bob Wickman gave them a legit closer, and the acquisition of two young power arms in righty Soriano and lefty Gonzalez creates a serious bullpen. In deep leagues, both will help you in the strikeout department and ERA, and Soriano in WHIP (1.08 in 60 innings last year). But here's the best part: one of them will be closing for Atlanta, either in '08 or earlier if Wickman doesn't hold up.
SS Julio Lugo to Red Sox: The past few years Lugo's been one of those guys near the top of the waiver wire around midseason, just begging to help somebody. His numbers were a bit down last year, but he was injured and also split the season between the Devil Rays and Dodgers. Now he's back in the AL East and could be batting leadoff for a powerful Sox offense. He's a career .277 hitter and no Miguel Tejada, but he's put up some decent totals in runs, RBIs and even homers (15 in '03) in the past, and you might even expect career numbers in those categories. He's also got above-average speed (39 steals in '05, who knew?), but expect a dip since the Sox don't really believe much in stolen bases.
Randy Johnson to Diamondbacks: It's no secret the Big Unit has been on a sharp decline the past two years. In 2006, his strikeouts were way down (although his 172 still put him in the top 20 in the league) and his ERA was way up (5.01). He still managed to win 17 games, but much of that was due to the tremendous run support he got from the Yankees, a blessing he likely won't enjoy in Arizona. So why should we even bother with the 43-year-old? Well, at the risk of sounding like some sort of male enhancement commercial, a comfortable Johnson should be a productive Johnson. Moving west, Randy should benefit by facing weaker NL offenses (It seems like ages ago, but he had a 2.60 ERA in 2004, his last year with the D-Backs). Factor in offseason back surgery and being closer to his family's home and farther from the pressure cooker that is New York, and the Unit could help your team in '07, provided you don't pay too much for him.
CF Willy Taveras to Rockies: There's no question Willy, acquired from the Astros in the Jason Jennings deal, can help you in the steals department. He's got wheels (34 and 33 stolen bases the past two years) and should be batting leadoff for the Rocks in '07. But the move to Coors Field and a spot in what should be a potent lineup is what really raises his stock. Of course, so far he's basically been a singles hitter with no pop (four HRs and 59 RBIs in two full seasons) and awful plate discipline (103 strikeouts/25 walks in '05; 88/34 in '06). His speed will help you, but if he can ever start figuring out how to get on base more often he could become a special player.
Relievers Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez to Braves: Blown saves were probably the biggest contributor in Atlanta's fall from the top of the NL East last season. In fact, their bullpen probably supplied TBS with more laughs than all those crappy Sex and the City reruns. That'll change this year. Their acquisition of veteran truck-driver impersonator Bob Wickman gave them a legit closer, and the acquisition of two young power arms in righty Soriano and lefty Gonzalez creates a serious bullpen. In deep leagues, both will help you in the strikeout department and ERA, and Soriano in WHIP (1.08 in 60 innings last year). But here's the best part: one of them will be closing for Atlanta, either in '08 or earlier if Wickman doesn't hold up.
SS Julio Lugo to Red Sox: The past few years Lugo's been one of those guys near the top of the waiver wire around midseason, just begging to help somebody. His numbers were a bit down last year, but he was injured and also split the season between the Devil Rays and Dodgers. Now he's back in the AL East and could be batting leadoff for a powerful Sox offense. He's a career .277 hitter and no Miguel Tejada, but he's put up some decent totals in runs, RBIs and even homers (15 in '03) in the past, and you might even expect career numbers in those categories. He's also got above-average speed (39 steals in '05, who knew?), but expect a dip since the Sox don't really believe much in stolen bases.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
It's never too early ...
... to start planning for your 2007 football draft. I've put together an extremely early top-10 list. Keep in mind a lot can change (new coaching staffs, injuries, free agency, the draft) between now and August, but here's some help if you're in a keeper league, want to get a jump on the competition or, like me, have too much free time:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.
2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.
3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.
4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.
5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.
6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.
7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.
8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."
10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.
OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
Pretty big no-brainer, right? It'd be foolish to expect another record-breaking season from our boy LT2 ... but I wouldn't put it past him either. The only worry I'd have is if he lands on the cover of Madden 2008, so start pulling hard for Drew Brees to make it.
2. Larry Johnson
If it wasn't for LT2's sick year we'd all be talking about LJ. Sure, Herm Edwards basically ran him into the ground, but his knees should be young enough to take some more abuse, and it's nice to know the head coach isn't shy about giving him the ball. If the Chiefs upgrade at QB and/or WR (and after that atrocious playoff performance, they desperately need to) it will only help Johnson next year.
3. Steven Jackson
Jackson only got stronger as the year wore on, establishing himself as a complete player and a bona fide fantasy stud. His game took a massive leap under new coach Scott Linehan, and at this rate, the 23-year-old will soon be putting up Marshall Faulk-type numbers.
4. Frank Gore
Gore is another well-rounded back who set a 49ers season rushing record last year with more than 1,600 yards but who also contributes in the passing game. And just like Gore, the Niners are a team on the rise, with a boatload of spending money (they'll be an estimated $40 million under next year's salary cap), a bunch of extra draft picks and an improving young QB in Alex Smith. These factors can only help Gore post a great season in '07.
5. Shaun Alexander
I know it was a down year for the big guy, due in large part to the infamous cracked bone in his foot. But even before the injury, he didn't quite look like his MVP self from a year earlier. I'm willing to chalk it up to a bad combination of the Madden Curse, a post-Super Bowl letdown for the Seahawks and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson in free agency. Alexander showed glimpses of his past domination late in the year, and although he'll be 30 next season I still think there's a lot of production left in him.
6. Peyton Manning
I'm slotting Peyton in the middle of this list, but his true positioning depends on the type of scoring in your league. Move him up or down depending on how important QBs are in your scoring system, but know this: Manning is the most consistent player at his position and virtually the only lock among fantasy QBs from year to year.
7. Brian Westbrook
Westbrook's always been a tantalizing talent, mostly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. But this year he's also proven himself as a workhorse runner, and except for a brief scare with his knee early in the year, he was surprisingly healthy, too. Before 2006, he'd only twice carried more than 20 times in a game (both times cracking the 100-yard rushing barrier). This year he's had five 20-carry games (including last week's playoff win against the Giants), and each time he rushed for 100 or more. If the Eagles continue to be a balanced offensive team with coordinator Marty Morningweg calling the plays, and if Westbrook's knees remain intact, he can have a stellar 2007.
8. Willie Parker
Fast Willie's gone from no-name to Pro Bowler in two short years. He was severly underrated entering this season, his first as a full-time feature back, but he shut everyone up with a huge year that included two 200-yard games, nearly 1,500 yards on the ground and 13 TDs (even more astonishing when you consider he also had five fumbles on the goal line). It remains to be seen how the Stillers offense will operate under a new coaching regime, but a best-case scenario for Parker and his owners would be if offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt stays on with Pittsburgh either in that capacity or as head coach.
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
This is a little bit of a reach right now, but I'm slotting the little guy in here based on potential. You saw what he's capable of, and that was without carrying the full load. If the Jaguars decide to cut Fred Taylor this offseason, the sky's the limit for the man they call "Pinball."
10. Rudi Johnson
Although his yards-per-carry average dipped below 4.0 for the first time since becoming a starter, RJ scored 12 TDs for the third straight year. If there's one thing fantasy owners love, it's consistency. With Carson Palmer more than a year removed from that ghastly knee injury, the Bengals' offense should be another high-scoring unit, giving Johnson lots of opportunities and making him a safe fantasy pick. Of course, all of this gets thrown out of the window if he gets arrested in an effort to fit in with his teammates.
OTHERS TO WATCH: Joseph Addai could start approaching Edgerrin James territory as the Colts continue to phase out Dominic Rhodes. ... It might be a year late, but Ronnie Brown could have that breakout season we were all expecting in '06. He looked good after coming back from that hand injury, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding his team (new coach, instability at QB, plus the impending second return of Ricky Williams) ... Clinton Portis' value is a little hard to peg right now, given the injuries and emergence of Ladell Betts. I could see him doing anything from reclaiming the sole starting job and being a top-five back, entering the most annoying platoon ever, or maybe even getting traded. ... Palmer is the next best thing after Manning as far as QBs are concerned. I know Drew Brees gained a lot of believers out there, but Palmer has a slightly higher ceiling. ...
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