Monday, August 24, 2009

Mock draft podcast

I took part in a mock draft last week with some of my co-workers at the Bradenton Herald as part of our 2009 fantasy football preview, and we recorded it in a podcast for your listening pleasure:



You can spend hours reading magazines and making lists as you prepare for your season, but it's not easy to predict how others in your league will approach the draft and what strategies will unfold. Hopefully our podcast, featuring myself and five other self-proclaimed fantasy nuts, will offer some insight into how the first round might unfold. Some interesting tidbits we saw in our mock draft: Two QBs and two WRs made the top 10 and LaDainian Tomlinson and DeAngelo Williams didn't.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

2009 RB RANKINGS

1. Adrian Peterson
2. Michael Turner
3. Matt Forte
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Steven Jackson
6. Chris Johnson
7. LaDainian Tomlinson
8. DeAngelo Williams
9. Frank Gore
10. Brandon Jacobs
11. Steve Slaton
12. Clinton Portis
13. Brian Westbrook
14. Marion Barber
15. Ryan Grant
16. Kevin Smith
17. Pierre Thomas
18. Ronnie Brown
19. Derrick Ward
20. Darren McFadden
21. Thomas Jones
22. Joseph Addai
23. Jonathan Stewart
25. Willie Parker
26. Marshawn Lynch
27. Larry Johnson
28. Knowshon Moreno
29. LenDale White
30. Ahmad Bradshaw
31. Jamal Lewis
32. Reggie Bush
33. Ray Rice
34. Cedric Benson
35. Julius Jones
36. Donald Brown
37. Felix Jones
38. Beanie Wells
39. Fred Jackson
40. Earnest Graham
41. Rashard Mendenhall
42. Darren Sproles
43. Leon Washington
44. LeSean McCoy
45. Willis McGahee
46. Tim Hightower
47. Jamaal Charles
48. Ricky Williams
49. Justin Fargas
50. Shonn Green
51. Chester Taylor
52. Jerious Norwood
53. Fred Taylor
54. Michael Bush
55. Tashard Choice
56. Maurice Morris
57. T.J. Duckett
58. Kevin Faulk
59. Glen Coffee
60. James Davis

NOTES: Peterson is the clear No. 1 player on the board. Sure, his running style sometimes exposes him to a lot of wear and tear. But he's just 24 years old and has both the size to wear down defenses as well as the speed to break off game-changing runs and put them out of their misery. He led the league in rushing last year and is a good bet to do it again. ...

Turner (much like the Falcons as a team) isn't going to surprise anyone this year, nor is he going to get 376 carries again, only because the human body can't withstand such punishment. But as a career backup before last year, he hasn't taken a lot of abuse, and Atlanta's improved passing game will help keep defenses off him. He's not likely to repeat last year's numbers, but he's the team's unquestioned feature back and will get the first crack at the goal line. ...

I'm having a hard time separating Jones-Drew and Forte at three and four. Both are heavily featured in their teams' passing game, which adds to their value, especially in PPR leagues. I give Forte the nod because the Bears have a better passing attack than the Jags, plus he proved last year he can carry the load all by himself. MJD has been dangerous as a change-of-pace back, but can he still be as effective without Fred Taylor around to soften up defenses for him? ...

After the first four RBs there are plenty of question marks. Steven Jackson's had his last two seasons marred by injuries and awful OL play, but if the Rams stay lucky in those two respects, he has the raw skills to be fantasy's top back. ...

I love Chris Johnson and I think the run-heavy Titans' reported plans to use him more are wise. The presence of White - even the new slim-and-trim version after he cut back on the alcohol - is still cause for concern, but here's hoping more of the goal-line duties go to Johnson. ...

Here's where things really get tricky. I think LT2 can still be effective and I wouldn't mind having him on my team. But I do have a problem spending my first-round pick on a dude who threw up so many red flags last year and is 30 years old. As we've seen before, when a workhorse running back - especially a stud like Tomlinson or Priest Holmes or Shaun Alexander - hits the wall, there's no turning back. I can't build my team around a guy with so much risk, so let someone else reach for him with a top-10 or even top-five pick. ...

DeAngelo Williams also comes with a similar risk, even though he's much younger. Last year's fantasy MVP season was something of a fluke if you really think about it - the Panthers' backfield was supposed to be a timeshare with Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and Williams had been nothing more than mediocre before 2008. His stats last year were incredible - though they were inflated a bit by two four-TD games. And it's another timeshare situation this year as long as Stewart's healthy - and who's to say Stewart doesn't get the hot hand in a couple games and steal some of the glory? Nope, too much risk for me to take Williams that high. If he falls to me in the second round, however, I'd scoop him up for sure ....

I think Gore, Jacobs and Slaton could each become top-five backs if everything breaks right for them this year. Big upside for guys you can probably get in the second round or later. ...

Westbrook always carries a certain amount of drama, as you have to wonder each week if he's healthy enough to play or not. He almost always comes through for his owners, but you have to wonder if this is the year he lets us down, if his age and injuries finally catch up to him. He could really be a bargain if he falls into the late second round or beyond ... or he could really burn you. Big opportunity for rookie backup and Westbrook clone LeSean McCoy to step up. ...

I think Ward can succeed as the Bucs' feature back. Granted, having Brandon Jacobs softening up defenses for him helped him be a superb change-of-pace runner last year for the Giants, who also provided a very good offensive line to run behind. But Tampa Bay's up-and-coming OL won't be too bad, and if Earnest Graham can still get the job done, Ward can be that much more effective. Both are ownable, but Ward moreso because he figures to get more touches. ...

I'd be leery of counting on Thomas Jones too much. He's 31 now, and the Jets drafted Shonn Green for a reason. There will be a lot of running by Gang Green, with an inexperienced QB under center and new coach Rex Ryan leaning toward a back-by-committee approach (see the Ravens last year), and that probably means you can take away about half of Jones' 13 TDs from a year ago and split them up among Green and Leon Washington this year. ...

There are a lot of RBs I'll be looking to grab in the later rounds this year : Bradshaw is a violent and elusive runner who will get all those extra carries that went to Ward last year with the Giants ... I like Donald Brown a lot in Indy and wouldn't be surprised to see him supplant Addai at No. 1 on the Colts' depth chart at some point this year ... Ditto for Mendenhall in Pittsburgh unseating Fast Willie ... Felix Jones, Sproles and Washington are all guys who might not be useable every week but who can put up big points when the matchups are in their teams' favor. ...

Jamaal Charles averaged 5.3 yards a carry last year in limited duty for K.C. He's also one Larry Johnson injury/meltdown/suspension away from being the Chiefs' starter ... Just throwing that out there. ...

Saturday, August 22, 2009

2009 DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS RANKINGS

1. Steelers
2. Giants
3. Vikings
4. Jets
5. Titans
6. Eagles
7. Chargers
8. Ravens
9. Patriots
10. Cowboys
11. Bears
12. Redskins
13. Texans
14. Colts
15. Packers
16. Dolphins
17. 49ers
18. Panthers
19. Buccaneers
20. Bills
21. Raiders
22. Cardinals
23. Seahawks
24. Falcons
25. Jaguars
26. Browns
27. Saints
28. Rams
29. Broncos
30. Bengals
31. Chiefs
32. Lions

Friday, August 21, 2009

2009 KICKER RANKINGS

1. Jason Elam
2. Stephen Gostkowski
3. Ryan Longwell
4. David Akers
5. Nate Kaeding
6. Mason Crosby
7. Robbie Gould
8. Rob Bironas
9. Neil Rackers
10. John Kasay
11. Lawrence Tynes
12. John Carney
13. Rob Bironas
14. Kris Brown
15. Joe Nedney
16. Matt Prater
17. Rian Lindell
18. Jay Feely
19. Dan Carpenter
20. Shayne Graham
21. Phil Dawson
22. Josh Scobee
23. Adam Vinatieri
24. Jason Hanson
25. Mike Nugent

Thursday, August 20, 2009

2009 WR RANKINGS

1. Andre Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Randy Moss
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Greg Jennings
6. Steve Smith
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Roddy White
9. Marques Colston
10. Anquan Boldin
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Terrell Owens
13. Wes Welker
14. Roy Williams
15. Brandon Marshall
16. Anthony Gonzalez
17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
18. Vincent Jackson
19. Chad Ochocinco
20. Braylon Edwards
21. Eddie Royal
22. Lee Evans
23. Santana Moss
24. DeSean Jackson
25. Bernard Berrian
26. Antonio Bryant
27. Kevin Walter
28. Devin Hester
29. Hines Ward
30. Jerricho Cotchery
31. Lance Moore
32. Torry Holt
33. Domenik Hixon
34. Ted Ginn Jr.
35. Percy Harvin
36. Lance Moore
37. Josh Morgan
38. Donnie Avery
39. Laveranues Coles
40. Derrick Mason
41. Michael Crabtree
42. Steve Breaston
43. Patrick Crayton
44. Nate Washington
45. Jeremy Maclin
46. Justin Gage
47. Isaac Bruce
48. Bobby Engram
49. Joey Galloway
50. Devery Henderson

Notes: Johnson gets the surprise nod at No. 1 over fantasy favorite Fitzgerald. AJ did lead the league in receptions and yards last year, not Fitz, after all. And while Johnson's QB, Matt Schaub, is a bit unproven, he's no more of an injury risk than Kurt Warner. Plus there's the Madden Curse to consider with Fitzgerald, as well as the post-Super Bowl hangover. ...

I don't think you can go wrong with making any of the top 10 guys your No. 1 fantasy receiver, and if you can grab two of those top-10 guys, you'll be golden. ...

I think White's numbers take a slight dip after the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who should definitely take away some TD opportunities. ...

I don't have too many worries about T.O. in Buffalo, but Trent Edwards is no Tony Romo (or Donovan McNabb, or Jeff Garcia) and the upstate N.Y. winds will be a legit concern as the season wears on. Don't overpay for Owens. ...

If you draft Marshall you might want to invest in some antacid pills. The constant stream of bad news associated with him that's come out of Denver's camp is enough to cause an upset stomach, yet he's too talented to let fall too far. Broncos possession receiver Eddie Royal, a great mid-round pick in his own right in Josh McDaniels' new offense, will be that much more valuable in case of a Marshall meltdown. ...

I think Hester, Holt, Hixon and Ginn could all be steals. They're all likely No. 1 receivers on their respective teams, but you can draft them at a spot where your leaguemates might be taking real-life No. 2s or No. 3s (Moore, Breaston, Coles) who will have their share of big games but be way less consistent. ...

Surprised to see Morgan ahead of Crabtree? I was too. But Crabtree's prolonged holdout (will he seriously sit out all year?) and the ill will that comes with it have really set him back in San Fran. It's hard enough for rookie receivers to step in and be fantasy-worthy in Year 1, and at this point I'd have trouble justifying putting him on a roster in leagues that carry four WRs. He might make a better midseason pickup after we see some positive signs out of him. ...

Favre's fantasy outlook

Just when you thought it was safe to rank your fantasy QBs ... Brett Favre is back.

Remember this?



Forget it.

And this?



Never happened.

The old guy's latest return to the NFL shouldn't shake up things too much. If there's anything his 2008 campaign with the Jets taught us, it's that Favre is simply an average QB at this point (22 TDs, 22 INTs), one who is still capable of putting points on the board but is also a major injury risk. At age 39 (40 in October), that's to be expected.

The move to Minnesota shouldn't drastically alter his output, either. He's got some nice weapons at WR (Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin), but then, he had some in New York too. He'll obviously have a stronger running game to rely on - maybe the league's best with Adrian Peterson toting the rock - but that just means he won't have to wing it as much as he has in years past, something which actually helped pad his fantasy stats in years past.

I'm amending my 2009 QB rankings to put Favre at No. 18, which makes him a low-level No. 2 QB in most 10-team leagues. In other words, he might make for a decent spot starter, but you can't rely on him to carry a team, and I wouldn't take him over younger, healthier, steadier veterans (Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck) or less established QBs who have more upside (Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton).

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

2009 TE RANKINGS

1. Jason Witten
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Antonio Gates
4. Dallas Clark
5. Chris Cooley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Greg Olsen
8. Kevin Boss
9. Kellen Winslow
10. John Carlson
11. Anthony Fasano
12. Zach Miller
13. Visanthe Shiancoe
14. Dustin Keller
15. Tony Scheffler
16. Jeremy Shockey
17. Donald Lee
18. Brent Celek
19. Bo Scaife
20. Heath Miller
21. Brandon Pettigrew
22. Marcedes Lewis
23. LJ Smith
24. Vernon Davis
25. Ben Watson
26. Chase Coffman
27. Todd Heap
28. Shawn Nelson
29. Billy Miller
30. Desmond Clark

Notes: I went against the grain a bit in making Witten the No. 1 TE this year over Gonzalez, who seems to be the consensus pick. I just think Witten's familiarity with BFF Tony Romo and the touchdown void created by Terrell Owens' absence means big things are in store for the Cowboys TE. But Gonzalez should still have a super season playing in an upgraded Falcons offense that's thirsty for a pass-catching threat at the position. ...

I also expect great seasons for now-healthy Gates in San Diego and the ever-reliable Clark in Indianapolis, making those four guys the upper-echelon TEs. ...

The position is incredibly deep after that, with the next 10 guys or so on the list all being deserving No. 1 fantasy starters. ...

The addition of Jay Cutler makes Olsen's stock rise because the QB has shown a knack for getting the ball to the tight end. ...

Boss will continue to be the Giants' primary red-zone target on pass plays until/if another wide receiver emerges to take Plaxico Burress' place. ...

Move up Shiancoe a spot or two if Brett Favre is indeed the Vikings' starting QB this year, because you know the old guy loves to hit his TE. ...

I wouldn't be surprised to see Scheffler and Keller take a step back because both teams have seemingly been downgraded at QB. ...

This could be the first time Shockey is undervalued in your draft, rather than overvalued, because the shine finally wore off last year (zero TDs). There's always hope for a revival with Drew Brees under center.