Friday, August 14, 2009

How does Vick fit into the fantasy world?


Michael Vick continues to grab all the headlines and will be perhaps the biggest story in the NFL as the season opens. But that doesn't mean he should command too much attention from fantasy players.

Vick's signing with the Eagles is the kind of storyline fans and pundits will be talking about for weeks and months, but for fantasy purposes it's just another transaction. No need to go making a major overhaul to your pre-draft rankings. Sure, Vick's an intriguing late-round sleeper because Philly figures to use him in the wildly popular "Wildcat" role that often results in big plays. He gives the Eagles another skilled player who can certainly be an effective runner/passer/receiver in their West Coast offense. But honestly, how many touches can he get in an offense that also includes Pro Bowl performers like Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook and young playmakers DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin?

The idea behind the Wildcat is to utilize the elements of surprise and unpredictability, so how consistently would Vick be used anyway? At least other presumed Wildcat players around the league - Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams in Miami, Percy Harvin in Minnesota - will be taking more snaps at their regular positions throughout the game, whereas Vick would only be stepping onto the field at a few strategic points when the Eagles use the package.

Make no mistake, McNabb is the starting QB. This won't be an even timeshare. Of course, taking into account McNabb's history, there is a decent chance of him getting injured at some point and Vick perhaps taking over, but that's not something you can bank on. And even then, the Eagles do have a supposed QB of the future, Kevin Kolb (although he's hurt right now). And assuming Vick is listed on Philly's roster as a QB and is eligible at that position in fantasy leagues, it's hard to justify taking him as your No. 2 fantasy QB when you could instead own another starter in the league - say, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, etc. - who will see the field far more often and produce many more points on a more consistent basis.

If your league allows three QBs, by all means, take Vick. If your league allows really deep rosters with open bench spots from any position, Vick's your guy. If the Eagles for some reason use Vick exclusively as a RB/WR, snatch him up. The potential is there for some cheap fantasy points. But good luck predicting when they might come.

The true concern for fantasy purposes should rest with anyone who owns an Eagles skill player. Every time Vick touches the ball he'll be taking away potential points from Westbrook, Jackson and co. And more alarmingly, how will the signing affect McNabb's psyche? You could look at it as yet another slap in the face for a franchise QB who's been maligned by his team's fans for years, witnessed the franchise draft a potential replacement (Kolb) and who was benched by his coach last year for poor play. Now McNabb's got to deal with the circus that follows such a publicized move, and the guy may have to take a backseat to Vick at key points in the game and give up snaps. There's potential here for bad blood and fan backlash if the Eagles, clearly in a win-now-at-all-costs mode, aren't winning. And instability is never a good thing for fantasy production. Maybe it's no big deal, but it's something to think about

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

2009 QB RANKINGS

1. Drew Brees
2. Tom Brady
3. Peyton Manning
4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Philip Rivers
6. Kurt Warner
7. Matt Ryan
8. Donovan McNabb
9. Tony Romo
10. Matt Schaub
11. Matt Cassel
12. Jay Cutler
13. Carson Palmer
14. Eli Manning
15. Kyle Orton
16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. Matt Hasselbeck
18. Trent Edwards
19. David Garrard
20. Jason Campbell
21. Chad Pennington
22. Jake Delhomme
23. Shaun Hill
24. Joe Flacco
25. Sage Rosenfels
26. JaMarcus Russell
27. Marc Bulger
28. Brady Quinn
29. Mark Sanchez
30. Luke McCown

NOTES: As we've already discussed, Brees gets the nod as the top overall QB by a hair over Brady and Manning. Those three form the upper tier of the list ...

Just below them are two young guns, Rodgers and Rivers, who I think are capable of being the top fantasy QB if none of the other three big guys really has a standout year. But I think one of them will, and my guess is Brees. ...

Warner obviously has the talent and the amazing receiving corps to be a top-flight fantasy QB, but I worry that his deal with the devil could expire yet again at age 38. If you're drafting him, please get a trustworthy backup QB (or Matt Leinart) ...

There's a dropoff after Ryan and McNabb, who are helped by offseason acquisitions in the passing game. ...

Romo has to be devalued a bit after losing Terrell Owens as a target. He'll still throw it a bunch, though. ...

I view Schaub, Cassel, Cutler, Palmer, and Orton similarly: all have big upside, but each could blow up in your face, for a variety of reasons. ...

Hasselbeck will show you he has something left, but there will be hiccups along the way. ...

Edwards will be a good spot starter. He and T.O. will have a few monster games when the matchups dictate, but at other times, when the weather's bad in Buffalo especially, he'll be useless. ...

Is this the year Campbell takes The Leap? I'd give him a shot, but only if I was pairing him with a rock-steady guy like Brees or Manning as my No. 1. Campbell could easily become droppable a few weeks in. ...

Bulger took a big tumble - remember when he was a top-five fantasy QB? I'm not going down that road. ...

In cases where one of the lower-ranked guys doesn't win a starting job, you can pretty much substitute with the guy who beats them out - Derek Anderson for Quinn, Kellen Clemens for Sanchez, etc. - and keep them ranked right where they're at. If an NFL team doesn't have a clear-cut starter at this point, the eventual starter's fantasy prospects are tied much more to the team around them than their individual talent. In other words, the Vikings QB, whoever it is, might be worth a late-round flier simply because he'll be throwing to Percy Harvin and working behind a good offensive line.

Thursday, August 06, 2009

The great QB debate

Who's the top QB to target in fantasy this year? For me, the choice comes down to three: Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

Let's start with old reliable, Mr. Manning. Has he had a disappointing season yet? He's never missed a start in 11 seasons. He's never thrown for fewer than 3,700 yards or 26 TDs in a season either. Now, Manning is a long way from his amazing 49-TD season in 2004, the record-breaking Reggie Wayne-Marvin Harrison duo is no more, and he's dealing with the most significant coaching changes of his NFL career. At age 33, Peyton doesn't offer the same kind of upside he once did - but at the same time, there's probably no safer pick in all of fantasy. He checks in at No. 3 on this year's QB rankings.

If you're more of a gambler, Brady might be your pick. Some people want to pretend like last year's devastating Week 1 knee injury never happened and Brady will pick up where he left off with 2007's 50-TD campaign. I'm not sure I can go with that, and I'd have to think long and hard before making Brady my QB. We've seen other quarterbacks - Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb - struggle to come back from similar ACL injuries, but they were much more mobile than Brady to begin with. Carson Palmer also suffered a similar injury in 2005 but bounced back nicely the following season. Can Brady do the same? He's had a full year to recover, and his strong point has never been his legs anyway. Can he return to the same record-setting, fantasy-MVP level he was at in '07? Maybe. He's got just as many receiving targets - Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis - a similar running back committee and and the same mastermind, Bill Belichick, running the offense. There may not be a QB with more fantasy potential, but if that knee isn't fully healed, taking Brady with a first-round pick could devastate your team. He's No. 2 on our list.

That leaves Brees as this year's top fantasy QB. He's led the league in pass attempts the past two seasons, and although the Saints might like to be a little more balanced on offense, Sean Payton's not afraid to air it out, meaning Brees has a legit shot at hitting the 5,000-yard mark and maybe setting the single-season passing record. With a complete arsenal - Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Billy Miller, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas - to spread the ball around to, Brees could finish head and shoulders above the rest of the league's QBs.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Audio: Hear me talk fantasy sports with Doobie

In case you missed me on the airwaves Monday, click below to hear me talk fantasy football with Ryan "Doobie" Boyd on the "Talk Sports With Doobie" radio program on 1490-AM WWPR in Bradenton, FL.

Monday, August 03, 2009

Hear me on the radio today

You can hear me live on the radio today, chatting about fantasy football on the "Talk Sports with Doobie" show, 2:45 p.m. on 1490-AM in Bradenton, FL or online here.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Phillies settle for Lee


The Phillies couldn't work out a long-rumored deal for Roy Halladay, so they settled for Cliff Lee, the second-best pitcher on the trade market. How does the move affect Lee's fantasy fortunes? Could this move mirror last year's deadline deal that sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee? The Indians traded the reigning Cy Young winner to the National League in that one and it worked out pretty well for CC owners (11-2, 1.65 ERA down the stretch as a Brewer).

It's hard to say Lee will enjoy that kind of dominance, but he should get a boost from facing weaker NL lineups. Lee owns a 3.18 career ERA against the NL, compared to a 4.13 vs. the AL. He does move to a much more hitter-friendly stadium - Citizens Bank Park is in the top 10 in runs and homers allowed per game, while Progressive Field is in the bottom three in runs and dead last in homers surrendered. But also consider Lee is receiving some of the lowest run support in the AL (4.32 runs per nine innings), while three of Philly's starters - Jamie Moyer (6.75), Cole Hamels (6.41) and J.A. Happ (5.35) - rank in the top 20 in the NL in run support. In short, the Phillies' offense is much better than the Indians', which should only help Lee's stats in the next two months. Lee owners should be extremely pleased with this deal.

Photo by The Associated Press

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Switching gears to the gridiron

The dog days of summer are here, and for those of us whose fantasy baseball teams have fallen out of contention, it can seem like the season drags on endlessly.

The good news: Football is right around the corner.

Fantasy football's always been the lifeblood of this blog. Sure, baseball's fun for the first few months, but the daily grind can take its toll, especially when your team's been stuck in ninth place like mine for what seems an eternity. I'll admit I've been slacking lately on the baseball posts, for a variety of reasons - vacation, hectic times at my "other" job and the general suckiness of my team. But it's my pledge to you now that I'll be posting more regularly as we get ready for football season.

Don't worry, baseball fanatics: I'll still be blogging on America's pastime when the mood strikes me, especially if we see any big moves as the MLB trade deadline approaches. But from here on out the primary focus will be on the gridiron, and I've got lots of thoughts. Is Adrian Peterson a lock for the No. 1 overall pick? How long should you wait to draft a QB this year? Is Jay Cutler better off as a Bear? Can Terrell Owens still be a fantasy force in Buffalo? I'll be dropping some knowledge on these and many other topics in the coming weeks, as well as unveiling my position-by-position rankings, plus some more surprises. So stay tuned.