How's this for a horror story:
So I'm watching the Red Sox-Angels Patriots' Day game today (MLB package free preview, score!) and my guy, Vlad Guerrero is up to bat. Whack! Josh Beckett plunks him on the wrist. My season flashes before my eyes. I sweat out the next couple hours, only to find out X-rays are negative. Crisis averted.
Then a little while later, more bad news. Alfonso Soriano left the Cubs' game with what turned out to be a hamstring injury. Sori was my No. 1 overall, and although he wasn't really doing squat so far, this is still going to hurt. We'll find out later today if the DL is in Soriano's future.
So overall, not a great day for my boys. But it could have been worse. At least I don't own B.J. Ryan ...
A day after blowing his second save, we find out Ryan's out 4-6 weeks with an elbow issue. Whenever the illustrious Dr. James Andrews' name comes up, it's never a good sign - Doc James is the man, but, like the great Tommy John, he's usually attached to the words "season-ending surgery." Right now it looks like Ryan won't be going under the knife, however - just rest, relaxation and rehab - but still, he's one of those cornerstone-type closers you count on, and he won't be easily replaced. Jason Frasor is the obvious replacement, for both the Blue Jays and for your fantasy team. He's saved games before in a pinch, so he'll help (just not to the extent Ryan did the past few years) ... get him now, if he's not already spoken for.
More injury problems for the Jays: Troy Glaus is on the DL too with a bum heel and hamstring, and Reed Johnson needs back surgery and will be sidelined until July. The good news is Johnson's absence opens up a sport for the Jays' top prospect, Adam Lind, a kid with a big-time bat. He's worth looking into.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Saturday, April 14, 2007
An open letter to ESPN
Dear Worldwide Leader:
First off let me say I love all the emphasis on fantasy sports. It's great to see you guys recognize the huge geek demographic and pander to us in your magazine, on TV and on your Web site. Who else would even allow Eric Karabell's mug on TV, other than that "To Catch a Predator" show?
But I have a bone to pick with you. For all the money and time you spent promoting your free fantasy baseball leagues, could you at least GET THE SITE WORKING PROPERLY?????? I'm in one of your leagues this year for the first time (a "newbie", as they say on the World Wide Web), and you basically ruined the first week and a half of our season. First we couldn't add or drop players ... then some of our stats weren't being counted ... and then your solution was to default all the scoring to our Opening Day rosters, negating every lineup change we've made since then. Who is your webmaster, Stu Scott? How can you be this incompetent? Did Harold Reynolds hit you with some kind of virus out of revenge? Did Lance Armstrong stop pedaling the generator down in the basement? What gives?
In your defense, you did give us free subscriptions (or subscription extensions) to your Insider stuff. But come on fellas, get your act together. We take this fantasy crap pretty seriously, in case you hadn't noticed. I've got 20 bucks and my reputation riding on this league ... don't blow it for me! Don't make us start adding up all our stats by hand, 1980s style.
Sincerely,
Jason Bartolone
Fantasy Guru
First off let me say I love all the emphasis on fantasy sports. It's great to see you guys recognize the huge geek demographic and pander to us in your magazine, on TV and on your Web site. Who else would even allow Eric Karabell's mug on TV, other than that "To Catch a Predator" show?
But I have a bone to pick with you. For all the money and time you spent promoting your free fantasy baseball leagues, could you at least GET THE SITE WORKING PROPERLY?????? I'm in one of your leagues this year for the first time (a "newbie", as they say on the World Wide Web), and you basically ruined the first week and a half of our season. First we couldn't add or drop players ... then some of our stats weren't being counted ... and then your solution was to default all the scoring to our Opening Day rosters, negating every lineup change we've made since then. Who is your webmaster, Stu Scott? How can you be this incompetent? Did Harold Reynolds hit you with some kind of virus out of revenge? Did Lance Armstrong stop pedaling the generator down in the basement? What gives?
In your defense, you did give us free subscriptions (or subscription extensions) to your Insider stuff. But come on fellas, get your act together. We take this fantasy crap pretty seriously, in case you hadn't noticed. I've got 20 bucks and my reputation riding on this league ... don't blow it for me! Don't make us start adding up all our stats by hand, 1980s style.
Sincerely,
Jason Bartolone
Fantasy Guru
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Out on a Lidge
Well, that didn't take too long. Brad Lidge's days as the Astros' closer are over, at least "for the foreseeable future." Manager Phil Garner mercifully pulled the plug on Lidge, who's never been the same since Albert Pujols abused him in the 2005 playoffs. Lidge's two ugly outings in the first week of the season were enough to get him buried at the back of Houston's bullpen in favor of new closer Dan Wheeler, sho responded by notching a save Monday.
Lidge's value is virtually nil at this point, so he's safe to dump in most leagues. His roster spot in Houston should be pretty secure, but I'm not sure how much value he'll have as a middle-relief guy, and he may never get that closer's job back unless everybody else really blows it. If you built your staff around Lidge, my condolences (sucker). If you took a chance on him and are loking for another reliever to take his spot, here are some candidates:
• Wheeler is an obvious first choice. He was a popular draftee in a lot of leagues because of the uncertainty surrounding Lidge, although we weren't expecting him to take over this quickly. Wheeler's never been a closer before in the majors, and he won't approach Lidge's strikeout totals, but he's had two nice years in Houston and is an obvious replacement candidate.
• Salomon Torres might have been skipped over in some shallow mixed leagues, but he won't be available for long if he keeps this up. The guy leads the league in saves so far (4), so ride the hot hand. Matt Capps has been a steady set-up man so far in Pittsburgh, but Torres is keeping him at bay for now.
• Next up is a trio of low-level guys who may be out on the waiver wire but are getting the job done. Ryan Dempster's been fine, working two scoreless innings for two saves, and his job's safe. Armando Benitez says he's almost 100 percent healthy, and believe it or not, he's had success as a closer before. And David Weathers has been the man for Cincinnati so far and is worth trotting out there for the time being. After all, saves are saves
• Al Reyes is probably the best option in the Devil Rays' bullpen, but that's kind of like saying "she's the hottest chick at the retirement home." Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but the veteran was an effective reliever the last time we saw him in St. Louis, and he has the Rays' only save so far. There won't be many to go around for Tampa, but Reyes is the best bet if you're really in dire straits.
• David Riske is the Royals' temporary closer until Octavio Dotel comes back, but I'd keep my distance. A better bet might be little-known Rule 5 draft pick Joakim Soria, a 22-year-old who was fantastic in spring training and before that in the Mexican Pacific League in the winter. And you know how tough the Mexican Pacific League is! Soria's got three scoreless innings under his belt already as a setup man, so keep tabs on him. Dotel is no sure thing.
• If the vets above aren't available, or if you're just not dying for saves at the moment, may I suggest going with a quality set-up man? The two I really recommend are two L.A. dudes, the Angels' Scot Shields, probably the best set-up guy out there, and young Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers. Shields will get saves whenever Francisco Rodriguez is tired (or when they identify that mysterious substance on K-Rod's cap), but he'll also notch a handful of wins and give you some great ratios. Ditto for the studly Broxton, who has five strikeouts in four scoreless innings thus far and will someday steal the closer's job from Takashi Saito, perhaps before the season's over.
Finally, here's the Youtube clip of the Cincinnati mayor's Opening Day "pitch" I promised. Enjoy.
Lidge's value is virtually nil at this point, so he's safe to dump in most leagues. His roster spot in Houston should be pretty secure, but I'm not sure how much value he'll have as a middle-relief guy, and he may never get that closer's job back unless everybody else really blows it. If you built your staff around Lidge, my condolences (sucker). If you took a chance on him and are loking for another reliever to take his spot, here are some candidates:
• Wheeler is an obvious first choice. He was a popular draftee in a lot of leagues because of the uncertainty surrounding Lidge, although we weren't expecting him to take over this quickly. Wheeler's never been a closer before in the majors, and he won't approach Lidge's strikeout totals, but he's had two nice years in Houston and is an obvious replacement candidate.
• Salomon Torres might have been skipped over in some shallow mixed leagues, but he won't be available for long if he keeps this up. The guy leads the league in saves so far (4), so ride the hot hand. Matt Capps has been a steady set-up man so far in Pittsburgh, but Torres is keeping him at bay for now.
• Next up is a trio of low-level guys who may be out on the waiver wire but are getting the job done. Ryan Dempster's been fine, working two scoreless innings for two saves, and his job's safe. Armando Benitez says he's almost 100 percent healthy, and believe it or not, he's had success as a closer before. And David Weathers has been the man for Cincinnati so far and is worth trotting out there for the time being. After all, saves are saves
• Al Reyes is probably the best option in the Devil Rays' bullpen, but that's kind of like saying "she's the hottest chick at the retirement home." Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but the veteran was an effective reliever the last time we saw him in St. Louis, and he has the Rays' only save so far. There won't be many to go around for Tampa, but Reyes is the best bet if you're really in dire straits.
• David Riske is the Royals' temporary closer until Octavio Dotel comes back, but I'd keep my distance. A better bet might be little-known Rule 5 draft pick Joakim Soria, a 22-year-old who was fantastic in spring training and before that in the Mexican Pacific League in the winter. And you know how tough the Mexican Pacific League is! Soria's got three scoreless innings under his belt already as a setup man, so keep tabs on him. Dotel is no sure thing.
• If the vets above aren't available, or if you're just not dying for saves at the moment, may I suggest going with a quality set-up man? The two I really recommend are two L.A. dudes, the Angels' Scot Shields, probably the best set-up guy out there, and young Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers. Shields will get saves whenever Francisco Rodriguez is tired (or when they identify that mysterious substance on K-Rod's cap), but he'll also notch a handful of wins and give you some great ratios. Ditto for the studly Broxton, who has five strikeouts in four scoreless innings thus far and will someday steal the closer's job from Takashi Saito, perhaps before the season's over.
Finally, here's the Youtube clip of the Cincinnati mayor's Opening Day "pitch" I promised. Enjoy.
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Opening Day thoughts
Opening Day's in the books! I hope it was everything you dreamed it would be. I also hope you don't go overreacting after one day of action.
Sometimes fantasy players, especially inexperienced ones, have a tendency to be a little too trigger happy. Please, don't go dropping Curt Schilling or Brandon Webb today. Don't trade Johan Santana for Gil Meche, straight up. Don't bury Alfonso Soriano on your bench. It's a long season, people. Relax.
It's hard to put a lot of stock into what happens in just one day of games, but we did legitimately learn a few things Monday. Before I get to those nuggets, though ... anyone see the ceremonial first pitch of the Reds-Cubs game on ESPN? Wow. The Cincinnati mayor either has a bad case of double vision, or it was a horribly failed attempt to throw a gyroball. ESPN's Tim Kirkjian called it the worst pitch ever, and I think I have to agree. I couldn't find it on YouTube, but when I do, I'll share. This thing might have been worse than the Kurt Busch pitch a couple years back. I don't think the guy ever threw a baseball before. Hilarious stuff.
Now, back to those nuggets. Let's check in on some guys with a lot of question marks swirling around them this season:
Brad Lidge didn't exactly put our fears to rest. First game and he's already coughing up leads? He shook it off like it was nothing, but you know something's going on with this guy. Psychiatrists can work wonders nowadays, Brad. Anyway, you can't just drop him, but I'd have some insurance in place. Teammate Dan Wheeler is a solid speculative buy if he's out there.
Richie Sexson is another guy with his share of skeptics following a bad first half last season and a rough spring, but unlike Lidge, he gave his owners a jolt of confidence with a three-run bomb off Dan Haren, who he was previously 1-for-18 against. Even though I didn't start Sexson on Monday, I'm feeling really good about grabbing him in the middle rounds of my draft and plopping him on the bench. He could hit 40 HR this year if he gets his act together at the plate, and he probably isn't even a No. 1 first baseman in a lot of mixed leagues right now.
Felix Hernandez was the real star of the show for the M's. Everyone's making a big deal out of his extreme makeover, and they're right, dropping 20 pounds in the offseason is only going to help him. But when you think about it, even though King Felix didn't pull a Sidney Crosby last year like a lot of fantasy people had hoped, Seattle stuck him out there, let him take his licks, and he's probably a better, more mature pitcher this year because of it. Remember, the kid can't even legally buy a beer yet (And let's hope he doesn't start either, for the sake of his new waistline). I don't think this will be the last time he Ks 12 in a game this season.
Ben Sheets look healthy to you? If a complete-game two-hitter doesn't tell you a guy's OK, I'm not sure what kind of sign you're waiting for. His face in a potato chip maybe? Sheets dispatched of the Dodgers in just 104 pitches. Right now he seems no more of an injury risk than any other guy on the mound. Don't hesitate to ride him from here on out.
Sometimes fantasy players, especially inexperienced ones, have a tendency to be a little too trigger happy. Please, don't go dropping Curt Schilling or Brandon Webb today. Don't trade Johan Santana for Gil Meche, straight up. Don't bury Alfonso Soriano on your bench. It's a long season, people. Relax.
It's hard to put a lot of stock into what happens in just one day of games, but we did legitimately learn a few things Monday. Before I get to those nuggets, though ... anyone see the ceremonial first pitch of the Reds-Cubs game on ESPN? Wow. The Cincinnati mayor either has a bad case of double vision, or it was a horribly failed attempt to throw a gyroball. ESPN's Tim Kirkjian called it the worst pitch ever, and I think I have to agree. I couldn't find it on YouTube, but when I do, I'll share. This thing might have been worse than the Kurt Busch pitch a couple years back. I don't think the guy ever threw a baseball before. Hilarious stuff.
Now, back to those nuggets. Let's check in on some guys with a lot of question marks swirling around them this season:
Monday, April 02, 2007
Dice-K and impact rookies
Many fantasy owners are targeting Daisuke Matsuzaka in their drafts this year. In fact, you could even say they are "rolling the dice" with Dice-K.
OK, that was an awful pun, but there's some truth to it. Matsuzaka, the Boston Red Sox's high-priced Japanese import, is being treated as a legitimate fantasy ace without ever having thrown a pitch in a meaningful game on American shores.
Fantasy players are often guilty of risking too much on rookies' potential, and last year's astounding class of freshmen pitchers (Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Cain) only spoiled us. Then again, it isn't often a fully mature, 26-year-old "rookie" just pops up on a loaded contender like the Red Sox. By all accounts, Matsuzaka has dominated batters in his homeland with an impressive laundry list of pitches (the mythical "gyroball" may or may not be included), and he seems to possess the talent to be more Hideki Matsui than Hideki Irabu.
That being said, Fenway Park can be an unforgiving place for many young hurlers (just ask Josh Beckett), and the unrelenting lineups of the American League East will throw Matsuzaka no welcoming parties. When it comes to Dice-K's 2007 projections, there would be no shame in a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Fifteen wins could be within reach with a little luck. And he was a strikeout king in Japan, so does 170 Ks sound right for this season? 180? 200? Hard to say.
If Matsuzaka can approach those numbers - and make no mistake, they're All-Star worthy - he'd be at least a top-20 fantasy pitcher, probably top-15. But we're dealing with a lot of unknowns over the course of a season.
There's a handful of elite staff aces out there to build a fantasy team around (Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, etc.), and we probably agree Matsuzaka can't be put in their class yet. Next, there's a large pool of second-tier guys (John Smoltz, John Lackey, Jason Schmidt, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Kazmir and so on) who have proven track records and would also make fine fantasy No. 1s. If the scouts are right, and nothing's lost in translation, Matsuzaka belongs in their class. But for now, however, treat Matsuzaka like a No. 2, and don't pay too much for him.
Some other potential impact rookies for 2007:
• OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Bat-tossing incident behind him, this future 30-30 man is best "true" rookie out there and must be drafted as a fourth (or maybe even third) OF in all formats where available.
• 3B Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: Big lefty-swinging kid dominated college ball and then Double A last year, hitting for average and power and forcing way into K.C.'s starting lineup this year.
• SP Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins: Righty tore through his lone season in the minors (243/53 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but will start year in Triple A after a rough spring training; just a Sidney Ponson meltdown away from cracking Twins' thin rotation.
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres: Acquired from the Cleveland Indians last fall, fast-rising hitting machine steps into everyday role and will be counted on to supply offense.
• SP Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Large (6-foot-7) righty with plus fastball was just announced as Mets' fifth starter, causing spike in his already valuable stock.
• SP Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Perhaps the majors' best pitching prospect, Yanks have whispered Roger Clemens comparisons but are handling him with velvet gloves; Hughes could get called up later this year and make Jered Weaver-type impact.
• OF Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Not to be confused with the Padres pitcher, speedy CF won't help your average much but has 20-20 potential; could be a cheaper version of Mike Cameron .
Other rookies to watch:
• C Chris Iannetta, Rockies
• SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
• SS Brandon Wood, Angels
• 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
• 3B Akinori Iwamura, Devil Rays
• SP Homer Bailey, Reds
• SP Andrew Miller, Tigers
• SP Kei Igawa, Yankees
OK, that was an awful pun, but there's some truth to it. Matsuzaka, the Boston Red Sox's high-priced Japanese import, is being treated as a legitimate fantasy ace without ever having thrown a pitch in a meaningful game on American shores.
Fantasy players are often guilty of risking too much on rookies' potential, and last year's astounding class of freshmen pitchers (Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Cain) only spoiled us. Then again, it isn't often a fully mature, 26-year-old "rookie" just pops up on a loaded contender like the Red Sox. By all accounts, Matsuzaka has dominated batters in his homeland with an impressive laundry list of pitches (the mythical "gyroball" may or may not be included), and he seems to possess the talent to be more Hideki Matsui than Hideki Irabu.
That being said, Fenway Park can be an unforgiving place for many young hurlers (just ask Josh Beckett), and the unrelenting lineups of the American League East will throw Matsuzaka no welcoming parties. When it comes to Dice-K's 2007 projections, there would be no shame in a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Fifteen wins could be within reach with a little luck. And he was a strikeout king in Japan, so does 170 Ks sound right for this season? 180? 200? Hard to say.
If Matsuzaka can approach those numbers - and make no mistake, they're All-Star worthy - he'd be at least a top-20 fantasy pitcher, probably top-15. But we're dealing with a lot of unknowns over the course of a season.
There's a handful of elite staff aces out there to build a fantasy team around (Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, etc.), and we probably agree Matsuzaka can't be put in their class yet. Next, there's a large pool of second-tier guys (John Smoltz, John Lackey, Jason Schmidt, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Kazmir and so on) who have proven track records and would also make fine fantasy No. 1s. If the scouts are right, and nothing's lost in translation, Matsuzaka belongs in their class. But for now, however, treat Matsuzaka like a No. 2, and don't pay too much for him.
Some other potential impact rookies for 2007:
• OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Bat-tossing incident behind him, this future 30-30 man is best "true" rookie out there and must be drafted as a fourth (or maybe even third) OF in all formats where available.
• 3B Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: Big lefty-swinging kid dominated college ball and then Double A last year, hitting for average and power and forcing way into K.C.'s starting lineup this year.
• SP Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins: Righty tore through his lone season in the minors (243/53 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but will start year in Triple A after a rough spring training; just a Sidney Ponson meltdown away from cracking Twins' thin rotation.
• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres: Acquired from the Cleveland Indians last fall, fast-rising hitting machine steps into everyday role and will be counted on to supply offense.
• SP Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Large (6-foot-7) righty with plus fastball was just announced as Mets' fifth starter, causing spike in his already valuable stock.
• SP Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Perhaps the majors' best pitching prospect, Yanks have whispered Roger Clemens comparisons but are handling him with velvet gloves; Hughes could get called up later this year and make Jered Weaver-type impact.
• OF Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Not to be confused with the Padres pitcher, speedy CF won't help your average much but has 20-20 potential; could be a cheaper version of Mike Cameron .
Other rookies to watch:
• C Chris Iannetta, Rockies
• SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
• SS Brandon Wood, Angels
• 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
• 3B Akinori Iwamura, Devil Rays
• SP Homer Bailey, Reds
• SP Andrew Miller, Tigers
• SP Kei Igawa, Yankees
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Spring Report No. 5
BRADENTON, Fla. - Ryan Howard owners can breathe easy.
Howard, suffering through a 1-for-23 slump, broke out in a huge way Thursday by sending a Shawn Chacon offering an estimated 420 feet for a towering home run in the Phillies' 5-5 tie with the Pirates at McKechnie Field.
Howard's been struggling to find his groove this spring, and a strained thigh hasn't helped him reach his comfort level. The hefty lefty is dealing with giant expectations this year, making his disappointing March all the more discouraging.
I warned in a column earlier this year that Howard might be a bust in 2007. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I still think Howard is capable of another monster season, but those expecting him to just unleash 70 homers season might need to slow down. The league will adjust to him, he'll get walked, and he'll have his slumps, as we've seen this spring.
That being said, Thursday's homer was a reminder of Howard's tremendous power potential, and he's sure to launch his fair share of balls out of Citizen's Bank Park this season. I'm a little more concerned about the dude batting behind him, Pat Burrell, a guy Philly fans love to hate. Burrell was experimenting with contact lenses earlier this spring after some poor results on a vision test, and his career average .258 average isn't exactly ideal. The 30-year-old OF did homer immediately after Howard on Thursday, and despite the crappy average he's still a good bet for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, so all hope is not lost.
Some other observations from Thursday's game:
-Ronny Paulino continues to impress. The Pittsburgh catcher stroked a double, and he's now batting .500 this spring. I know you can't read a lot into what happens in Grapefruit League games, but when you consider' Paulino's hot spring along with his breakout 2006, he's clearly a catcher on the rise. Consider him a No. 2 guy for now in mixed leagues and a very nice NL-only option; we may have to move him into the top 10 catchers for 2008 as some of the old stand-bys begin to fade away.
-It was a scary moment when Chacon took a line drive from the Phils' Michael Bourn off the chest and glove in the first inning. It's hard to understand exactly how fast the ball travels back at a pitcher on plays like that unless you see it live, and from our vantage point next to the visiting dugout, almost at field level (thanks to my pal Doug for the sweet ticket), it was an eye-opener.
-Spotted in the stands: Dallas Green, former Phillies manager and owner of one of the coolest names in baseball.
Howard, suffering through a 1-for-23 slump, broke out in a huge way Thursday by sending a Shawn Chacon offering an estimated 420 feet for a towering home run in the Phillies' 5-5 tie with the Pirates at McKechnie Field.
Howard's been struggling to find his groove this spring, and a strained thigh hasn't helped him reach his comfort level. The hefty lefty is dealing with giant expectations this year, making his disappointing March all the more discouraging.
I warned in a column earlier this year that Howard might be a bust in 2007. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I still think Howard is capable of another monster season, but those expecting him to just unleash 70 homers season might need to slow down. The league will adjust to him, he'll get walked, and he'll have his slumps, as we've seen this spring.
That being said, Thursday's homer was a reminder of Howard's tremendous power potential, and he's sure to launch his fair share of balls out of Citizen's Bank Park this season. I'm a little more concerned about the dude batting behind him, Pat Burrell, a guy Philly fans love to hate. Burrell was experimenting with contact lenses earlier this spring after some poor results on a vision test, and his career average .258 average isn't exactly ideal. The 30-year-old OF did homer immediately after Howard on Thursday, and despite the crappy average he's still a good bet for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, so all hope is not lost.
Some other observations from Thursday's game:
-Ronny Paulino continues to impress. The Pittsburgh catcher stroked a double, and he's now batting .500 this spring. I know you can't read a lot into what happens in Grapefruit League games, but when you consider' Paulino's hot spring along with his breakout 2006, he's clearly a catcher on the rise. Consider him a No. 2 guy for now in mixed leagues and a very nice NL-only option; we may have to move him into the top 10 catchers for 2008 as some of the old stand-bys begin to fade away.
-It was a scary moment when Chacon took a line drive from the Phils' Michael Bourn off the chest and glove in the first inning. It's hard to understand exactly how fast the ball travels back at a pitcher on plays like that unless you see it live, and from our vantage point next to the visiting dugout, almost at field level (thanks to my pal Doug for the sweet ticket), it was an eye-opener.
-Spotted in the stands: Dallas Green, former Phillies manager and owner of one of the coolest names in baseball.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Spring Report No. 4
SARASOTA, Fla. - You know someone's gonna do it. Somebody in your league is going to draft Ken Griffey Jr.
It's only a matter of time before Junior's name gets called, and then the jokes are gonna start flying. Calling him injury-prone is an understatement at this point, and he even got started early this year, breaking his hand while wrestling with his kids on the family's yacht in the offseason (coulda happened to any of us).
So should YOU be the one who takes a chance on Griffey this year? Maybe you convince yourself he got the yearly injury out of the way already. And hey, he hasn't lost that sweet home run swing, even after all these years (18, do you believe it?!).
Then reality begins to set in. Griffey hasn't had 500 at-bats in a season since 2000. He was on the bench yet again Thursday against the New York Yankees and has yet to make an appearance this spring. And this week the Reds announced he's moving to right field - a change that hasn't exactly made him jump for joy but is a surefire sign his career is winding down.
You don't want to be the one who gets suckered in by Griffey this time around, but that doesn't mean you have to avoid him at all costs. Instead of considering him a once-great player in decline, treat him more like an unproven rookie. He should be no more than your fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues, but look at some of the other guys available to fill those slots - Brian Giles, Moises Alou, Milton Bradley, and so on. Do any of those stiffs have the potential to hit 40 home runs? I think not. In a perfect world, Griff does, no matter how unlikely that scenario might be.
Don't let Griffey break your heart. But if you haven't taken many risks with your lineup, and you can afford to dump him the moment a hamstring tears or a tendon snaps, he's not a terrible pick. No matter how much they laugh at you on draft day.
Some other observations from Reds camp:
- Griffey's position change isn't the only interesting story in the Rays outfield. Josh Hamilton - the 1999 No. 1 overall draft pick by the Devil Rays who had his career derailed by drug addiction - has been the feel-good story this spring as he attempts a comeback. Hamilton, still just 25, has taken steps to get his life back in order and was reinstated by MLB last season. He was taken by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft this year, then the Reds acquired him and decided to give him another chance, and they haven't been disappointed. He's been one of the hottest hitters in the Grapefruit League (.527 in 46 at-bats) as he gets an extended look in right with Griffey still on the shelf. He's a five-tool player, and he seems to have a great shot at making the Opening Day roster (the Reds will lose him if he doesn't). We've all seen springtime All-Stars who fizzle in the regular season, and we know the demons of addiction will always be with him, but Hamilton is still a player who bears watching this year.
-Carl Pavano had a decent, if underwhelming, start Thursday (three runs, eight hits in 4.1 innings). He did show a little tenacity by getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the first inning unscathed, and perhaps best of all, he didn't get injured. I'm still not sold on the guy, though (neither are his teammates), so I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach.
-Derek Jeter showed off some of his trademark hustle in the middle of Thursday's game when he and Alex Rodriguez bolted off the field to avoid a giant swarm of bees making its way to the outfield. I haven't checked out the New York tabloids yet, but I didn't exactly see Jeter attempt to save A-Rod from the swarm, so their friendship may have reached a new low.
It's only a matter of time before Junior's name gets called, and then the jokes are gonna start flying. Calling him injury-prone is an understatement at this point, and he even got started early this year, breaking his hand while wrestling with his kids on the family's yacht in the offseason (coulda happened to any of us).
So should YOU be the one who takes a chance on Griffey this year? Maybe you convince yourself he got the yearly injury out of the way already. And hey, he hasn't lost that sweet home run swing, even after all these years (18, do you believe it?!).
Then reality begins to set in. Griffey hasn't had 500 at-bats in a season since 2000. He was on the bench yet again Thursday against the New York Yankees and has yet to make an appearance this spring. And this week the Reds announced he's moving to right field - a change that hasn't exactly made him jump for joy but is a surefire sign his career is winding down.
You don't want to be the one who gets suckered in by Griffey this time around, but that doesn't mean you have to avoid him at all costs. Instead of considering him a once-great player in decline, treat him more like an unproven rookie. He should be no more than your fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues, but look at some of the other guys available to fill those slots - Brian Giles, Moises Alou, Milton Bradley, and so on. Do any of those stiffs have the potential to hit 40 home runs? I think not. In a perfect world, Griff does, no matter how unlikely that scenario might be.
Don't let Griffey break your heart. But if you haven't taken many risks with your lineup, and you can afford to dump him the moment a hamstring tears or a tendon snaps, he's not a terrible pick. No matter how much they laugh at you on draft day.
Some other observations from Reds camp:
- Griffey's position change isn't the only interesting story in the Rays outfield. Josh Hamilton - the 1999 No. 1 overall draft pick by the Devil Rays who had his career derailed by drug addiction - has been the feel-good story this spring as he attempts a comeback. Hamilton, still just 25, has taken steps to get his life back in order and was reinstated by MLB last season. He was taken by the Cubs in the Rule 5 draft this year, then the Reds acquired him and decided to give him another chance, and they haven't been disappointed. He's been one of the hottest hitters in the Grapefruit League (.527 in 46 at-bats) as he gets an extended look in right with Griffey still on the shelf. He's a five-tool player, and he seems to have a great shot at making the Opening Day roster (the Reds will lose him if he doesn't). We've all seen springtime All-Stars who fizzle in the regular season, and we know the demons of addiction will always be with him, but Hamilton is still a player who bears watching this year.
-Carl Pavano had a decent, if underwhelming, start Thursday (three runs, eight hits in 4.1 innings). He did show a little tenacity by getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the first inning unscathed, and perhaps best of all, he didn't get injured. I'm still not sold on the guy, though (neither are his teammates), so I'd suggest a wait-and-see approach.
-Derek Jeter showed off some of his trademark hustle in the middle of Thursday's game when he and Alex Rodriguez bolted off the field to avoid a giant swarm of bees making its way to the outfield. I haven't checked out the New York tabloids yet, but I didn't exactly see Jeter attempt to save A-Rod from the swarm, so their friendship may have reached a new low.
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