Is there a Draft in here?

They say it can take a few years to really analyze an NFL Draft, but in fantasy, we don't have that luxury. We've got to identify the impact players right away in preparation for our own draft. Here are some of the big names taken this year and how they'll fit into your fantasy plans in '07:

• QB JaMarcus Russell to Raiders: Best-case scenario, Russell is a quick learner, takes the starting job early in the season and makes a Vince Young-type impact. Worst-case scenario: he struggles to adjust or, more likely, he gets thrown into the fire but that offensive line crumbles again. Russell is a nice speculative pick as a No. 2 QB for now, but you'll want a proven starter ahead of him.

• WR Calvin Johnson to Lions: Johnson may make the biggest fantasy impact of this rookie class, but take that with a grain of salt. Rookie WRs are anything but a sure but, and Marques Colston is the exception, not the rule. I'm a little more excited about the boost Roy Williams and, to a lesser extent Jon Kitna, will get from adding Johnson to the lineup. Still, Mike Martz will find ways to get Johnson the ball, so that makes him a No. 3 fantasy WR with a ton of upside. He's an obvious target in keeper leagues.

• RB Adrian Peterson to Vikings: Here's another keeper league no-brainer. The bad news is he'll most likely split carries with workhorse Chester Taylor. While the two-back platoon didn't hurt 2006 rookies Laurence Maroney or Reggie Bush that much, the Vikings' offense (perhaps led by Tarvaris Jackson) won't match the Patriots' last year, and Peterson won't contribute in the passing game the way Bush did. Don't get me wrong, I think Peterson will be a star in due time, but factor in a lingering collar bone injury and he might not have a ton of value in 2007 (unless Taylor goes down). For now, treat him as a third or fourth RB.

• WR Ted Ginn Jr. to Dolphins: Wow, Fins fans really weren't happy with this pick, huh? The reason is it's hard to envision Ginn as a stud No. 1 NFL receiver (like, say, Chris Chambers) - he just hasn't demonstrated those skills yet. Miami likes his raw talent and speed and hopes he can make a Devin Hester-type impact on special teams, but that isn't exactly helpful in fantasy terms. He's also been slow to recover from an ankle injury suffered in the BCS title game. Throw in the real possibility we'll see a whole lot of Cleo Lemon under center this year, and Ginn is nothing more than a late-round flier for now.

• RB Marshawn Lynch to Bills: Buffalo had a glaring need in its backfield after dealing Willis McGahee to Baltimore, and it filled that need by making Lynch the second RB taken in the draft. Lynch might not be as talented as draftmate Peterson, but he has the potential to be the more valuable fantasy rookie RB in 2007. That's because he has a good chance of supplanting Anthony Thomas as the Bills' feature back with a good showing in training camp, or at the very least getting a majority of the carries in a platoon system.

• QB Brady Quinn to Browns: Cleveland got its man, albeit later than most draft gurus predicted. Many of those same gurus seem to think Quinn has the skills to compete right away in the NFL. It remains to be seen if he can beat out Charlie Frye for the starting gig, but you have to figure we'll see Quinn starting at some point in '07. The addition of RB Jamal Lewis and rookie OL Joe Thomas will help boost what had been a dismal offense, and TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards are also exciting pieces. If everything goes right, Quinn might be able to make the same kind of impact Matt Leinart did last year, so he'd be an intriguing fantasy backup.

• TE Greg Olsen to Bears: Olsen could eventually be a serious receiving threat in the mold of Todd Heap and fellow Miami product Jeremy Shockey. He has the size (6-4, 250) and speed (4.5 in the 40) to really help QB Rex Grossman, but it will take him time to adjust to the NFL, and Desmond Clark will probably still take plenty of snaps at TE. It's a pretty deep position, so consider Olsen a No. 2 with some upside.

• WR Randy Moss to Patriots: He's not a rookie, but he stole the headlines at the draft when Oakland dealt the malcontent for a fourth-round pick. Moss' days out West were disastrous at best, and he'll try to resurrect his career in New England. I could see this going either way: A) Moss is motivated and happy and flourishes with a living, breathing QB throwing him the ball, gets 1,000 yards and becomes a model citizen in the hopes of winning a championship; or B) isn't happy about sharing the ball with Donte' Stallworth and Wes Welker and Jabar Gaffney and Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown and Ben Watson, and those nagging injuries and negative tendencies pop up again. So you can roll the dice by taking Moss as your No. 2, just recognize the risks and rewards involved.

Back to the blog

Hey, sorry about the lack of blogging lately, I just got back from my honeymoon a few days ago. Internet access was a little pricey at our place in Jamaica, and with all the Cricket World Cup action clogging up the TV, it was a little hard to keep up with baseball. We did get ESPN, so when my beautiful bride and I weren't preoccupied with, ahem, other things (you know, like Red Stripe, rum punch, strawberry daquiris ...) I got to catch a few highlights here and there. Apparently the Yankees didn't have a very good April or something?

Anyway, the past couple days I've tried to play catch up. My fantasy team really tanked the first month of the season but it's finally showing some signs of life. Mark Teixeira hit two homers in two days last week against the Blue Jays. I thought he could jack 40 this year, but I'll settle for 35. Alfonso Soriano finally has a pulse now that the calendar's flipped. Mariano Rivera isn't washed up yet - not one but two saves earlier today in a doubleheader as he slowly chipped away at that ERA.

One guy who's helping me out: Barry Bonds. Picked him up as my fourth OF on draft day, now I'm pretty much starting him on a daily basis, except on day games after night games of course. I figured he'd be a little undervalued in most drafts, but I really didn't anticipate this kind of production. Let's hope that George Mitchell investigation keeps taking its sweet old time.

Some other random thoughts:

• Seems like Chris Carpenter may have dodged a bullet. For a while it seemed like that elbow injury could have taken a pretty serious turn, but he's reported no problems in his rehab and could be back on the mound by next week. Then again, with the way the Cards' season has gone so far that elbow might explode any second.

• Bob Wickman's DL stint is good news for savvy owners who stashed Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez on their roster. The two young guys will split the save opportunities in some fashion ... should be interesting to see how Bobby Cox uses them, and if Wickman will even have a job when he gets back.

• How bittersweet was Phil Hughes' last start? You're watching him mow down the Rangers, patting yourself on the back for grabbing this year's Francisco Liriano, and then - pop goes the hamstring. Out for 4-6 weeks, or more. Take heart though ... I'm not a medical expert of any kind, but I just don't think it's a terribly serious injury. The Yanks are going to proceed with extreme caution. In fact, they wouldn't have even brought Hughes up this early if the rest of the Bombers' starters weren't dropping like flies. Originally the thinking was he'd be a late-season spark, and I still think he can be just that. Keep him around if you can spare the roster space.

Ouch

How's this for a horror story:

So I'm watching the Red Sox-Angels Patriots' Day game today (MLB package free preview, score!) and my guy, Vlad Guerrero is up to bat. Whack! Josh Beckett plunks him on the wrist. My season flashes before my eyes. I sweat out the next couple hours, only to find out X-rays are negative. Crisis averted.

Then a little while later, more bad news. Alfonso Soriano left the Cubs' game with what turned out to be a hamstring injury. Sori was my No. 1 overall, and although he wasn't really doing squat so far, this is still going to hurt. We'll find out later today if the DL is in Soriano's future.

So overall, not a great day for my boys. But it could have been worse. At least I don't own B.J. Ryan ...

A day after blowing his second save, we find out Ryan's out 4-6 weeks with an elbow issue. Whenever the illustrious Dr. James Andrews' name comes up, it's never a good sign - Doc James is the man, but, like the great Tommy John, he's usually attached to the words "season-ending surgery." Right now it looks like Ryan won't be going under the knife, however - just rest, relaxation and rehab - but still, he's one of those cornerstone-type closers you count on, and he won't be easily replaced. Jason Frasor is the obvious replacement, for both the Blue Jays and for your fantasy team. He's saved games before in a pinch, so he'll help (just not to the extent Ryan did the past few years) ... get him now, if he's not already spoken for.

More injury problems for the Jays: Troy Glaus is on the DL too with a bum heel and hamstring, and Reed Johnson needs back surgery and will be sidelined until July. The good news is Johnson's absence opens up a sport for the Jays' top prospect, Adam Lind, a kid with a big-time bat. He's worth looking into.

An open letter to ESPN

Dear Worldwide Leader:

First off let me say I love all the emphasis on fantasy sports. It's great to see you guys recognize the huge geek demographic and pander to us in your magazine, on TV and on your Web site. Who else would even allow Eric Karabell's mug on TV, other than that "To Catch a Predator" show?

But I have a bone to pick with you. For all the money and time you spent promoting your free fantasy baseball leagues, could you at least GET THE SITE WORKING PROPERLY?????? I'm in one of your leagues this year for the first time (a "newbie", as they say on the World Wide Web), and you basically ruined the first week and a half of our season. First we couldn't add or drop players ... then some of our stats weren't being counted ... and then your solution was to default all the scoring to our Opening Day rosters, negating every lineup change we've made since then. Who is your webmaster, Stu Scott? How can you be this incompetent? Did Harold Reynolds hit you with some kind of virus out of revenge? Did Lance Armstrong stop pedaling the generator down in the basement? What gives?

In your defense, you did give us free subscriptions (or subscription extensions) to your Insider stuff. But come on fellas, get your act together. We take this fantasy crap pretty seriously, in case you hadn't noticed. I've got 20 bucks and my reputation riding on this league ... don't blow it for me! Don't make us start adding up all our stats by hand, 1980s style.

Sincerely,

Jason Bartolone
Fantasy Guru

Out on a Lidge

Well, that didn't take too long. Brad Lidge's days as the Astros' closer are over, at least "for the foreseeable future." Manager Phil Garner mercifully pulled the plug on Lidge, who's never been the same since Albert Pujols abused him in the 2005 playoffs. Lidge's two ugly outings in the first week of the season were enough to get him buried at the back of Houston's bullpen in favor of new closer Dan Wheeler, sho responded by notching a save Monday.

Lidge's value is virtually nil at this point, so he's safe to dump in most leagues. His roster spot in Houston should be pretty secure, but I'm not sure how much value he'll have as a middle-relief guy, and he may never get that closer's job back unless everybody else really blows it. If you built your staff around Lidge, my condolences (sucker). If you took a chance on him and are loking for another reliever to take his spot, here are some candidates:

• Wheeler is an obvious first choice. He was a popular draftee in a lot of leagues because of the uncertainty surrounding Lidge, although we weren't expecting him to take over this quickly. Wheeler's never been a closer before in the majors, and he won't approach Lidge's strikeout totals, but he's had two nice years in Houston and is an obvious replacement candidate.

• Salomon Torres might have been skipped over in some shallow mixed leagues, but he won't be available for long if he keeps this up. The guy leads the league in saves so far (4), so ride the hot hand. Matt Capps has been a steady set-up man so far in Pittsburgh, but Torres is keeping him at bay for now.

• Next up is a trio of low-level guys who may be out on the waiver wire but are getting the job done. Ryan Dempster's been fine, working two scoreless innings for two saves, and his job's safe. Armando Benitez says he's almost 100 percent healthy, and believe it or not, he's had success as a closer before. And David Weathers has been the man for Cincinnati so far and is worth trotting out there for the time being. After all, saves are saves

• Al Reyes is probably the best option in the Devil Rays' bullpen, but that's kind of like saying "she's the hottest chick at the retirement home." Reyes is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery, but the veteran was an effective reliever the last time we saw him in St. Louis, and he has the Rays' only save so far. There won't be many to go around for Tampa, but Reyes is the best bet if you're really in dire straits.

• David Riske is the Royals' temporary closer until Octavio Dotel comes back, but I'd keep my distance. A better bet might be little-known Rule 5 draft pick Joakim Soria, a 22-year-old who was fantastic in spring training and before that in the Mexican Pacific League in the winter. And you know how tough the Mexican Pacific League is! Soria's got three scoreless innings under his belt already as a setup man, so keep tabs on him. Dotel is no sure thing.

• If the vets above aren't available, or if you're just not dying for saves at the moment, may I suggest going with a quality set-up man? The two I really recommend are two L.A. dudes, the Angels' Scot Shields, probably the best set-up guy out there, and young Jonathan Broxton of the Dodgers. Shields will get saves whenever Francisco Rodriguez is tired (or when they identify that mysterious substance on K-Rod's cap), but he'll also notch a handful of wins and give you some great ratios. Ditto for the studly Broxton, who has five strikeouts in four scoreless innings thus far and will someday steal the closer's job from Takashi Saito, perhaps before the season's over.

Finally, here's the Youtube clip of the Cincinnati mayor's Opening Day "pitch" I promised. Enjoy.

Opening Day thoughts

Opening Day's in the books! I hope it was everything you dreamed it would be. I also hope you don't go overreacting after one day of action.

Sometimes fantasy players, especially inexperienced ones, have a tendency to be a little too trigger happy. Please, don't go dropping Curt Schilling or Brandon Webb today. Don't trade Johan Santana for Gil Meche, straight up. Don't bury Alfonso Soriano on your bench. It's a long season, people. Relax.

It's hard to put a lot of stock into what happens in just one day of games, but we did legitimately learn a few things Monday. Before I get to those nuggets, though ... anyone see the ceremonial first pitch of the Reds-Cubs game on ESPN? Wow. The Cincinnati mayor either has a bad case of double vision, or it was a horribly failed attempt to throw a gyroball. ESPN's Tim Kirkjian called it the worst pitch ever, and I think I have to agree. I couldn't find it on YouTube, but when I do, I'll share. This thing might have been worse than the Kurt Busch pitch a couple years back. I don't think the guy ever threw a baseball before. Hilarious stuff.

Now, back to those nuggets. Let's check in on some guys with a lot of question marks swirling around them this season:

Brad Lidge didn't exactly put our fears to rest. First game and he's already coughing up leads? He shook it off like it was nothing, but you know something's going on with this guy. Psychiatrists can work wonders nowadays, Brad. Anyway, you can't just drop him, but I'd have some insurance in place. Teammate Dan Wheeler is a solid speculative buy if he's out there.

Richie Sexson is another guy with his share of skeptics following a bad first half last season and a rough spring, but unlike Lidge, he gave his owners a jolt of confidence with a three-run bomb off Dan Haren, who he was previously 1-for-18 against. Even though I didn't start Sexson on Monday, I'm feeling really good about grabbing him in the middle rounds of my draft and plopping him on the bench. He could hit 40 HR this year if he gets his act together at the plate, and he probably isn't even a No. 1 first baseman in a lot of mixed leagues right now.

Felix Hernandez was the real star of the show for the M's. Everyone's making a big deal out of his extreme makeover, and they're right, dropping 20 pounds in the offseason is only going to help him. But when you think about it, even though King Felix didn't pull a Sidney Crosby last year like a lot of fantasy people had hoped, Seattle stuck him out there, let him take his licks, and he's probably a better, more mature pitcher this year because of it. Remember, the kid can't even legally buy a beer yet (And let's hope he doesn't start either, for the sake of his new waistline). I don't think this will be the last time he Ks 12 in a game this season.

Ben Sheets look healthy to you? If a complete-game two-hitter doesn't tell you a guy's OK, I'm not sure what kind of sign you're waiting for. His face in a potato chip maybe? Sheets dispatched of the Dodgers in just 104 pitches. Right now he seems no more of an injury risk than any other guy on the mound. Don't hesitate to ride him from here on out.

Dice-K and impact rookies

Many fantasy owners are targeting Daisuke Matsuzaka in their drafts this year. In fact, you could even say they are "rolling the dice" with Dice-K.

OK, that was an awful pun, but there's some truth to it. Matsuzaka, the Boston Red Sox's high-priced Japanese import, is being treated as a legitimate fantasy ace without ever having thrown a pitch in a meaningful game on American shores.

Fantasy players are often guilty of risking too much on rookies' potential, and last year's astounding class of freshmen pitchers (Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Matt Cain) only spoiled us. Then again, it isn't often a fully mature, 26-year-old "rookie" just pops up on a loaded contender like the Red Sox. By all accounts, Matsuzaka has dominated batters in his homeland with an impressive laundry list of pitches (the mythical "gyroball" may or may not be included), and he seems to possess the talent to be more Hideki Matsui than Hideki Irabu.

That being said, Fenway Park can be an unforgiving place for many young hurlers (just ask Josh Beckett), and the unrelenting lineups of the American League East will throw Matsuzaka no welcoming parties. When it comes to Dice-K's 2007 projections, there would be no shame in a 3.50-4.00 ERA. Fifteen wins could be within reach with a little luck. And he was a strikeout king in Japan, so does 170 Ks sound right for this season? 180? 200? Hard to say.

If Matsuzaka can approach those numbers - and make no mistake, they're All-Star worthy - he'd be at least a top-20 fantasy pitcher, probably top-15. But we're dealing with a lot of unknowns over the course of a season.
There's a handful of elite staff aces out there to build a fantasy team around (Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, etc.), and we probably agree Matsuzaka can't be put in their class yet. Next, there's a large pool of second-tier guys (John Smoltz, John Lackey, Jason Schmidt, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Kazmir and so on) who have proven track records and would also make fine fantasy No. 1s. If the scouts are right, and nothing's lost in translation, Matsuzaka belongs in their class. But for now, however, treat Matsuzaka like a No. 2, and don't pay too much for him.

Some other potential impact rookies for 2007:
• OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Bat-tossing incident behind him, this future 30-30 man is best "true" rookie out there and must be drafted as a fourth (or maybe even third) OF in all formats where available.

• 3B Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals: Big lefty-swinging kid dominated college ball and then Double A last year, hitting for average and power and forcing way into K.C.'s starting lineup this year.

• SP Matt Garza, Minnesota Twins: Righty tore through his lone season in the minors (243/53 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but will start year in Triple A after a rough spring training; just a Sidney Ponson meltdown away from cracking Twins' thin rotation.

• 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, San Diego Padres: Acquired from the Cleveland Indians last fall, fast-rising hitting machine steps into everyday role and will be counted on to supply offense.

• SP Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets: Large (6-foot-7) righty with plus fastball was just announced as Mets' fifth starter, causing spike in his already valuable stock.

• SP Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Perhaps the majors' best pitching prospect, Yanks have whispered Roger Clemens comparisons but are handling him with velvet gloves; Hughes could get called up later this year and make Jered Weaver-type impact.

• OF Chris B. Young, Arizona Diamondbacks: Not to be confused with the Padres pitcher, speedy CF won't help your average much but has 20-20 potential; could be a cheaper version of Mike Cameron .

Other rookies to watch:

• C Chris Iannetta, Rockies
• SS Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
• SS Brandon Wood, Angels
• 2B Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
• 3B Akinori Iwamura, Devil Rays
• SP Homer Bailey, Reds
• SP Andrew Miller, Tigers
• SP Kei Igawa, Yankees