With all the NFL free agent signings and trades going down this past week, I can't help but turn my attention to a little fantasy football, offseason edition. These owners are stocking up on running backs the way old people buy Chef Boyardee when a hurricane or snowstorm is about to hit. Anyway, how about we take a look at some moves that will have fantasy implications? Thinking about this stuff now will put you ahead of the game come September ...
JAMAL LEWIS TO BROWNS
Lewis is pretty far removed from his 2,000-yard season, and this move to Cleveland isn't going to help his cause. The Brownies were last in the league in rushing last year and have had exactly one 1,000-yard rusher (Reuben Droughns, 2005) since 19-freakin'-85. Lewis is an RB2 at best now, and I'd look for a slight decline in his stats next year.
WILLIS McGAHEE TO RAVENS
The Ravens essentially replaced Lewis with McGahee, a more explosive runner who's two years younger. McGahee does come attached to some injury risk, but he definitely deserves a fantasy upgrade after moving to a solid, ball-control offense that features a much better offensive line. McGahee might even be a low-level fantasy No. 1 next year.
TRAVIS HENRY TO BRONCOS
Henry also improved his fantasy standing by moving to an offense that has a knack for creating star tailbacks. Assuming he keeps his nose clean, Henry should take a firm hold of the starting job now that Tatum Bell is out of the picture (see below). A 1,200- or 1,300-yard campaign is basically a lock, as long as Mike Shanahan doesn't pull his old revolving-door trick with the backfield again.
THOMAS JONES TO JETS
Jones' value should hold steady after his trade to New York. Figure he'll be used much the same way as he was the past two years in Chicago, with young Leon Washington filling the Cedric Benson role as a change-of-pace back. The real question concerns Benson, who was supposed to have already replaced Jones as the Bears' feature back, oh, about two years ago. Can he handle the new role? I'm a little skeptical right now.
REUBEN DROUGHNS TO GIANTS
Droughns was up-and-down as the primary tailback in Cleveland. Now he comes to the Giants, who will attempt to replace Tiki Barber with some combination of himself and Brandon Jacobs. The Giants think highly of the young, bruising Jacobs (new GM Jerry Reese referred to Droughns as a "complement" to Jacobs), but the two may enter some kind of competition for the starting role. Still, I expect a situation similar to the one in Indianapolis this past season, with Jacobs getting about two-thirds of the carries as he slowly adjusts to a feature role (a la Joseph Addai) while the veteran Droughns, like Dominic Rhodes, gets the rest of the work. Both Droughns and Jacobs will be worth a mid-round pick, and we'll see how the situation unfolds.
DOMINIC RHODES TO RAIDERS
Speaking of Rhodes, he goes from the world champs to the league's worst team in '06, and cashes in by doing so. It's unclear what the Silver & Black have in mind for the tandem of Rhodes and LaMont Jordan, but it'll likely be some kind of two-headed attack (or even three-headed if you count recently signed FB Justin Griffith). Judging by the Raiders' recent track record, Rhodes probably won't enjoy the same success he's had with the Colts, and Jordan should be downgraded a peg as well - as if he already wasn't in most of our minds already.
RANDY McMICHAEL TO RAMS
Love this move for St. Louis. Athletic, pass-catching tight ends are kind of like the iPods of the NFL, everybody's got to have one, and Joe Klopfenstein didn't give the Rams that dimension last season. McMichael certainly does. He'll catch a lot of balls, and I expect him to flourish under coach Scott Linehan, his former offensive coordinator in Miami. Mark McMichael down as a legit No. 1 fantasy TE.
AHMAN GREEN TO TEXANS
Green was surprisingly serviceable last season as the feature back on a bad Packers team. He'll probably be serviceable again as the feature back on a bad Texans team next year, even though some younger guys (including Dominick Williams, the Running Back Formerly Known as Dominick Davis) will also be in the mix. Green's at that age 30 danger zone, too, so you'll have to be cautious here.
TATUM BELL, T.J. DUCKETT TO LIONS
Weird situation here - it's a awfully crowded backfield, which also includes Kevin Jones, Shawn Bryson and Brian Calhoun. Each of these guys are lugging big question marks around, too, concerning everything from injuries (Jones, Bryson, Calhoun, Bell) to effort (Bell) to opportunity (Duckett). The way I see it, Jones is probably still the guy, assuming he can stay on the field, which is a big assumption. Bell could share time with him, the way he did the past few years in Denver, but there's also talk of the Lions using him as trade bait. And Duckett will probably sucker some owners into drafting him, but it's hard to say if he'll even get the carries to make it worth your while.
JEFF GARCIA TO BUCS
Could Garcia really start for the Bucs in 2007? I know he was fine for a stretch last year with the Eagles, but the jury's still out on whether he can be an effective starter for a full season. I'd like to think Chris Simms is still the guy the Bucs would LIKE to start for them - they did just give him a contract extension, after all - and bringing in Garcia is a ploy to push Simms in camp and serve as an insurance policy in case of emergency, like, say, another ruptured spleen. Or do you only have one spleen? I dunno, I'm a fantasy expert, not a doctor. Just don't make Garcia your starter next year, OK?
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Monday, March 05, 2007
CLOSING TIME - NL
What better way to get fired up for the coming baseball season than some old school-inspired baseball gear? No, I don't work for Nike, but they do have a pretty dope collection of hats and shirts featuring old school logos. The perfect gift for the nostalgic baseball enthusiast in your life (I wear a Large) ......
Anyway, I digress. On to the closers:'
ARIZONA
Jose Valverde can drive you crazy. He's equally capable of dominating or breaking down. He lost the job last year and even got demoted to Triple A. But the good news is he pitched well after a late-season call-up and has been handed the job again to start the year. Valverde's a high-risk, high-reward type of guy, not a bad second reliever for your team, but certainly don't build your squad around him. Jorge Julio is a logical choice to replace Valverde if he falters, but sometimes he's even more inconsistent, so be warned.
ATLANTA
Bob Wickman seemed to be in the twilight of his career before the Indians dealt him to the Braves last summer. The 38-year-old truck-driver-in-another-life seemed to be rejuvenated by the move (in fact, he was pretty awesome - 18 saves, 1.04 ERA) and helped stabilize a volatile Braves bullpen. He'll try to do it again in '07, but he'll have young guns Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano firebreathing down his neck this time. You know Gonzalez - the lefty was 24-for-24 in save opportunites with the Pirates last year and could be the Braves' closer of the (near) future. And Soriano's got a live arm, too (although he's a Tommy John survivor). Wickman's worthy, Gonzalez should be stashed on your bench, and keep an eye on Soriano, too.
CHICAGO
The Cubs' fortunes have long been tied to the success of Kerry Wood, and it could be a similar story this year, although not quite the same plot. They're banking on Wood coming out of the bullpen now, perhaps as the team's closer, which means incumbent Ryan Dempster - who won't have Dusty Baker in his corner this year - is on the hot seat. As if the nine blown saves last year were helping his cause anyway. Bob Howry could also be in the mix, but Wood (assuming he steers clear of the hot tub and maybe even considers sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber on his days off) is an intriguing possibility.
CINCINNATI
David Weathers and Mike Stanton are the frontrunners right now, but do you really want to go down those roads again? The two vets might give you a couple saves, but the odds of either of them holding down the job all season are slim. Lefty Bill Bray - acquired from the Nationals in a controversial eight-player deal last year - is a possibility at some point and may have the most upside considering it's only his second big-league season. Todd Coffey was a great set-up guy but fizzled in the closer's role last year. Eddie Guardado is lingering, too, but he blew out his arm and may not be available until early summer, if at all.
COLORADO
Lefty Brian Fuentes has posted back-to-back 30-save seasons, the first Rockies pitcher to do so. You can probably expect the same this year along with an ERA somewhere around 3.00. Don't believe what your big brother told you about Rockies pitchers back in the day. Second-year man Ramon Ramirez would probably get the call if Fuentes went down but otherwise doesn't have a whole lot of value.
FLORIDA
The Marlins are essentially holding an American Idol-style open casting call (without the psychos) for the closer's job this spring after losing Joe Borowski in free agency. Lefty Taylor Tankersley did a fine job as a rookie last year in the bullpen and was seen as the front-runner but has recently been dealing with a sore arm. Other candidates include Kevin Gregg, Henry Owens and Ricky Nolasco. Yet another intriguing possibility is rookie Matt Lindstrom, a former Mormon missionary who has hit 102 mph on the radar gun and can reportedly "throw a marshmallow through a battleship." Now that I'd like to see.
HOUSTON
Brad Lidge, 2005: 70.2 IP, 103 Ks, 42 saves, 2.29 ERA
Brad Lidge, 2006: 75 IP, 104 Ks, 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
Hmm, one of those categories really doesn't jive with the other. Did Albert Pujols permanently wreck Lidge's psyche? I don't know. Something happened to the guy last year, though. The Astros even sat him in the time-out chair for a while. Can Lidge bounce back? Houston thinks so. They held onto him at the trade deadline after dangling him, even gave him a new one-year deal. At the very least Lidge will give you strikeouts and saves, and you can keep your fingers crossed he gets things figured out and lowers those ratios. Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are there in case he can't.
LOS ANGELES
Last year, Takashi Saito single-handedly gave creedence to the fantasy adage about not paying too much for saves. The 36-year-old rookie didn't exactly have Daisuke Matsuzaka-level buzz when he came over from Japan and was basically an afterthought until stepping into the closer spot in mid-May. All he did from there was post 24 saves with a 2.07 ERA and lead all major league relievers with 107 strikeouts (compared to just 24 walks). Everyone's predicting a dropoff in his second go-around, and they may prove to be right once the league gets accustomed to him, but you've got to consider Saito a solid second-tier closer to start the year. You'd also be extremely wise to handcuff him to closer-in-waiting Jonathan Broxton, a 6-3, 290-pound, 22-year-old fireballer who trailed only Saito and Lidge in strikeouts among relievers (97) last year.
MILWAUKEE
Francisco Cordero fell out of favor as the closer in Texas last year but really stepped it up after coming over to the Brewers in the Carlos Lee deal. He replaced Derrick Turnbow, so good in 2005, who wigged out and lost his magic touch. Cordero seemed to really take to the league change (4.81 ERA in Texas, 1.69 in Milwaukee), and although his outings can be somewhat of an adventure, he did save 49 games in 2004 and 37 in 2005.
NEW YORK
Assuming he stays healthy, you can pretty much pencil Billy Wagner in for about 35 saves, an ERA around 2.00 and about 90 Ks right now. He's got some live arms behind him with closer potential - Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Ambiorix Burgos - but it's hard to imagine a scenario where manager Willie Randolph replaces Wags.
PHILADELPHIA
Tom Gordon was surprisingly solid in his return to the closer role in '06 after spending a couple years setting the table for Mariano Rivera. He did have to shut it down for a few weeks late in the season with a strained shoulder, but that'll happen when you're almost 40 years old and spend your time throwing a baseball as hard as you can. Flash and the Phils are taking extra steps to make sure he stays in top form this season, as there isn't a whole lot of depth behind him right now. Ryan Madson and Antonio Alfonseca aren't exactly enticing menu options.
PITTSBURGH
Now that Mike Gonzalez is in Atlanta, Salomon Torres is expected to get the nod for the Pirates. King Salomon did a pretty good job filling in when Gonzalez was hurt last year, racking up 12 saves, but he'd saved only five games before that in the previous nine seasons. Will he last a full year? Youngster Matt Capps is supposed to be the closer of the future, but when does the future start? And how many save opportunities will there be in the Steel City? Both of those guys are worth stashing on your roster, but temper your expectations for now.
ST. LOUIS
A hip ailment cost Jason Isringhausen a chance to pitch in the postseason for the World Series champs, but he's back now and reportedly feeling fine. So fine that last year's replacement, 25-year-old Adam Wainright, is being shifted into the rotation. Same goes for setup man Braden Looper, now a starter for the first time in his big-league career. Will Izzy be OK? He says he may need a hip replacement in a few years, which means he and the grandmothers of the world have something in common. We know he can do the job, but proceed with a lot of caution.
SAN DIEGO
The calendar continues to turn, but ageless Trevor Hoffman remains a top closing option. OK, so he's 39, so technically he's not "ageless." But he was arguably as good as ever last year, registering a 2.14 ERA and leading the league in saves with 46. If some unlucky accident should befall him, the Padres have two tremendous options - Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith - warming up in the pen.
SAN FRANCISCO
You pretty much know the deal with Armando Benitez. He's a so-so closer getting up there in age who battled knee problems last year. The trade rumors were swirling big-time this offseason, particularly those involving him going back to the Marlins. Red flags abound. Keep serious tabs on youngsters Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum waiting in the wings. Odds favor one of them taking over at some point, and with a much higher ceiling than Benitez's.
WASHINGTON
We know what Chad Cordero is capable of when everything goes right (47 saves, 1.82 ERA in 2005) ... we also saw what happens when he gets fewer chances and is the only reliable reliever on a bad team (29/3.19 last year). How many chances will the low-brimmed one get from what looks like an awful Nationals squad this year? Consider '05 his high-water mark, which means he'll be solid again but probably won't crack the 30-save barrier.
Anyway, I digress. On to the closers:'
ARIZONA
Jose Valverde can drive you crazy. He's equally capable of dominating or breaking down. He lost the job last year and even got demoted to Triple A. But the good news is he pitched well after a late-season call-up and has been handed the job again to start the year. Valverde's a high-risk, high-reward type of guy, not a bad second reliever for your team, but certainly don't build your squad around him. Jorge Julio is a logical choice to replace Valverde if he falters, but sometimes he's even more inconsistent, so be warned.
ATLANTA
Bob Wickman seemed to be in the twilight of his career before the Indians dealt him to the Braves last summer. The 38-year-old truck-driver-in-another-life seemed to be rejuvenated by the move (in fact, he was pretty awesome - 18 saves, 1.04 ERA) and helped stabilize a volatile Braves bullpen. He'll try to do it again in '07, but he'll have young guns Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano firebreathing down his neck this time. You know Gonzalez - the lefty was 24-for-24 in save opportunites with the Pirates last year and could be the Braves' closer of the (near) future. And Soriano's got a live arm, too (although he's a Tommy John survivor). Wickman's worthy, Gonzalez should be stashed on your bench, and keep an eye on Soriano, too.
CHICAGO
The Cubs' fortunes have long been tied to the success of Kerry Wood, and it could be a similar story this year, although not quite the same plot. They're banking on Wood coming out of the bullpen now, perhaps as the team's closer, which means incumbent Ryan Dempster - who won't have Dusty Baker in his corner this year - is on the hot seat. As if the nine blown saves last year were helping his cause anyway. Bob Howry could also be in the mix, but Wood (assuming he steers clear of the hot tub and maybe even considers sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber on his days off) is an intriguing possibility.
CINCINNATI
David Weathers and Mike Stanton are the frontrunners right now, but do you really want to go down those roads again? The two vets might give you a couple saves, but the odds of either of them holding down the job all season are slim. Lefty Bill Bray - acquired from the Nationals in a controversial eight-player deal last year - is a possibility at some point and may have the most upside considering it's only his second big-league season. Todd Coffey was a great set-up guy but fizzled in the closer's role last year. Eddie Guardado is lingering, too, but he blew out his arm and may not be available until early summer, if at all.
COLORADO
Lefty Brian Fuentes has posted back-to-back 30-save seasons, the first Rockies pitcher to do so. You can probably expect the same this year along with an ERA somewhere around 3.00. Don't believe what your big brother told you about Rockies pitchers back in the day. Second-year man Ramon Ramirez would probably get the call if Fuentes went down but otherwise doesn't have a whole lot of value.
FLORIDA
The Marlins are essentially holding an American Idol-style open casting call (without the psychos) for the closer's job this spring after losing Joe Borowski in free agency. Lefty Taylor Tankersley did a fine job as a rookie last year in the bullpen and was seen as the front-runner but has recently been dealing with a sore arm. Other candidates include Kevin Gregg, Henry Owens and Ricky Nolasco. Yet another intriguing possibility is rookie Matt Lindstrom, a former Mormon missionary who has hit 102 mph on the radar gun and can reportedly "throw a marshmallow through a battleship." Now that I'd like to see.
HOUSTON
Brad Lidge, 2005: 70.2 IP, 103 Ks, 42 saves, 2.29 ERA
Brad Lidge, 2006: 75 IP, 104 Ks, 32 saves, 5.28 ERA
Hmm, one of those categories really doesn't jive with the other. Did Albert Pujols permanently wreck Lidge's psyche? I don't know. Something happened to the guy last year, though. The Astros even sat him in the time-out chair for a while. Can Lidge bounce back? Houston thinks so. They held onto him at the trade deadline after dangling him, even gave him a new one-year deal. At the very least Lidge will give you strikeouts and saves, and you can keep your fingers crossed he gets things figured out and lowers those ratios. Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are there in case he can't.
LOS ANGELES
Last year, Takashi Saito single-handedly gave creedence to the fantasy adage about not paying too much for saves. The 36-year-old rookie didn't exactly have Daisuke Matsuzaka-level buzz when he came over from Japan and was basically an afterthought until stepping into the closer spot in mid-May. All he did from there was post 24 saves with a 2.07 ERA and lead all major league relievers with 107 strikeouts (compared to just 24 walks). Everyone's predicting a dropoff in his second go-around, and they may prove to be right once the league gets accustomed to him, but you've got to consider Saito a solid second-tier closer to start the year. You'd also be extremely wise to handcuff him to closer-in-waiting Jonathan Broxton, a 6-3, 290-pound, 22-year-old fireballer who trailed only Saito and Lidge in strikeouts among relievers (97) last year.
MILWAUKEE
Francisco Cordero fell out of favor as the closer in Texas last year but really stepped it up after coming over to the Brewers in the Carlos Lee deal. He replaced Derrick Turnbow, so good in 2005, who wigged out and lost his magic touch. Cordero seemed to really take to the league change (4.81 ERA in Texas, 1.69 in Milwaukee), and although his outings can be somewhat of an adventure, he did save 49 games in 2004 and 37 in 2005.
NEW YORK
Assuming he stays healthy, you can pretty much pencil Billy Wagner in for about 35 saves, an ERA around 2.00 and about 90 Ks right now. He's got some live arms behind him with closer potential - Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota, Ambiorix Burgos - but it's hard to imagine a scenario where manager Willie Randolph replaces Wags.
PHILADELPHIA
Tom Gordon was surprisingly solid in his return to the closer role in '06 after spending a couple years setting the table for Mariano Rivera. He did have to shut it down for a few weeks late in the season with a strained shoulder, but that'll happen when you're almost 40 years old and spend your time throwing a baseball as hard as you can. Flash and the Phils are taking extra steps to make sure he stays in top form this season, as there isn't a whole lot of depth behind him right now. Ryan Madson and Antonio Alfonseca aren't exactly enticing menu options.
PITTSBURGH
Now that Mike Gonzalez is in Atlanta, Salomon Torres is expected to get the nod for the Pirates. King Salomon did a pretty good job filling in when Gonzalez was hurt last year, racking up 12 saves, but he'd saved only five games before that in the previous nine seasons. Will he last a full year? Youngster Matt Capps is supposed to be the closer of the future, but when does the future start? And how many save opportunities will there be in the Steel City? Both of those guys are worth stashing on your roster, but temper your expectations for now.
ST. LOUIS
A hip ailment cost Jason Isringhausen a chance to pitch in the postseason for the World Series champs, but he's back now and reportedly feeling fine. So fine that last year's replacement, 25-year-old Adam Wainright, is being shifted into the rotation. Same goes for setup man Braden Looper, now a starter for the first time in his big-league career. Will Izzy be OK? He says he may need a hip replacement in a few years, which means he and the grandmothers of the world have something in common. We know he can do the job, but proceed with a lot of caution.
SAN DIEGO
The calendar continues to turn, but ageless Trevor Hoffman remains a top closing option. OK, so he's 39, so technically he's not "ageless." But he was arguably as good as ever last year, registering a 2.14 ERA and leading the league in saves with 46. If some unlucky accident should befall him, the Padres have two tremendous options - Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith - warming up in the pen.
SAN FRANCISCO
You pretty much know the deal with Armando Benitez. He's a so-so closer getting up there in age who battled knee problems last year. The trade rumors were swirling big-time this offseason, particularly those involving him going back to the Marlins. Red flags abound. Keep serious tabs on youngsters Brian Wilson and Tim Lincecum waiting in the wings. Odds favor one of them taking over at some point, and with a much higher ceiling than Benitez's.
WASHINGTON
We know what Chad Cordero is capable of when everything goes right (47 saves, 1.82 ERA in 2005) ... we also saw what happens when he gets fewer chances and is the only reliable reliever on a bad team (29/3.19 last year). How many chances will the low-brimmed one get from what looks like an awful Nationals squad this year? Consider '05 his high-water mark, which means he'll be solid again but probably won't crack the 30-save barrier.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Spring report No. 2
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Believe it or not, but the Tampa Bay Devil Rays might be worth watching this year.
They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.
Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.
Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.
Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.
Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.
There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.
There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.
Some other observations:
- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.
- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.
They don't get much national respect - not that they've earned it by the way they've played for basically the last decade - but there are a bunch of talented Rays who should be on your fantasy radar. A few were on display in Tampa Bay's spring opener Friday, a 3-1 loss to the New York Yankees at Progress Energy Park.
Carl Crawford is slowly moving up the rotisserie ladder, a speed merchant who's just beginning to realize his power potential at age 25 and figures to be at least a top-10 pick on draft day. Crawford anchors arguably the league's most talented outfield along with Rocco Baldelli in center and Delmon Young in right.
Baldelli, also just 25, is often overlooked for a number of reasons - he missed all of 2005 and part of '06 in a string of bad luck that started with a freak flip-flop incident (don't ask), he's overshadowed by Crawford and, of course, he's a Devil Ray. But Rocco Ballgame is just entering his prime, and he proved last year he's basically back to full strength (.302/16/57 with 10 SBs in 92 games). He'd offer a lot of value as a late-round pick assuming he can stay healthy for a full season.
Young's best known for chucking his bat at an ump in a minor league game next year, but if the prognosticators are right it'll just be a post script on a possible Hall of Fame career. Young - the younger brother of former Detroit Tiger Dmitri Young - is one of the finest all-around talents to enter the game in recent memory and a front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year. In other words, the kid's got skills. It'll be just his first full season, so don't overpay, but if Young keeps his head in check and can learn some plate discipline (one walk in 126 at-bats, egads!), he'll make an impact.
Speaking of aggressive youngsters, Elijah Dukes is another phenomenal Rays outfield prospect. The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Dukes, who played linebacker at Tampa's Hillsborough High (known for producing such talented headcases as Dwight Gooden, Gary Sheffield and Carl Everett) has had some problems with aggression and finding his inside voice in the past. The massive 22-year-old probably won't make too much of an impact this year - although he's got a good shot at making the team as a fourth outfielder in an effort to keep him under the watchful eye of the big-league club and get his head straight. Don't forget about him, especially in keeper leagues.
There's a lot of talent elsewhere on the roster too. We all know what ace Scott Kazmir is capable of (10 wins, 3.25 ERA, 125 Ks before the '06 All-Star break), and the shoulder inflammation that forced him to shut it down early last year hasn't been a problem this spring. B.J. Upton, not long ago considered one of baseball's top prospects, has fallen out of favor a bit because of defensive shortcomings but will start his first full season as a sort of uber-utility, Chone Figgins clone who will help at least in the steals department. 2B Jorge Cantu was held back by a broken foot last year, but if healthy he could replicate his stellar 2005 power numbers (28 HRs, 117 RBIs), which would hypothetically put him just behind Chase Utley at the position in terms of fantasy value. Japanese veteran 3B Akinori Iwamura, the team's only notable addition this season, provides a solid bat that could make him worth a late flyer. And waiting in the wings is 3B Evan (Don't Call Me Eva) Longoria, the Rays' top draft pick last year and the "best pure hitter" of that year's college prospects, according to Baseball America.
There's a lot of hypotheticals on this team, and of course they don't mean squat if they can't hobble together some semblance of a major league rotation or bullpen behind Kazmir. But the Rays have given themselves some flexibility and a pretty solid foundation to build on. And they can do the same for your team.
Some other observations:
- Andy Pettitte looked good in his first start of the spring and first game appearance since rejoining the Yankees: 20 pitches (15 strikes), two perfect innings. The Bombers are reportedly confident he's healthy (even though health concerns were supposedly the reason they let go of him in the first place), and I'm expecting the 34-year-old lefty to be rejuvenated by the move. He won't win an ERA title now that he's back in the AL, but with gas left in the tank and a dangerous offense backing him up, he's almost a lock to win 15 games.
- Spotted around the ballpark: Yogi Berra, Reggie Jackson, 1996 World Series hero Jim Leyritz, and Derek Jeter's parents, Charles and Dorothy.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Spring report No. 1
TAMPA, Fla. - It wouldn't be a New York Yankees training camp without controversy.
The latest flap is over the "relationship" between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Don't get any ideas, Red Sox fans - I know A-Rod's recent comments about "not sleeping over Jeter's house" will give you boo-birds some ammo. But we're talking strictly about their friendship, or the perceived lack thereof in the past few years.
There was no sign of hard feelings between the two superstars when the Yankees began full-squad workouts at Legends Field on Tuesday. They were all smiles while taking batting practice together and running through some conditioning drills. And Jeter even responded to Rodriguez's comments a day later in a media session, reinforcing the idea the two aren't as close as they once were but haven't let that affect the clubhouse dynamic or play on the field.
For fantasy purposes, we have to remember these two guys have been lightning rods for controversy and headlines for most of their careers. Everything they say and do, every little happening, is going to be magnified and analyzed in the media spotlight. And while A-Rod's performance did take a slight dip last year as the Big Apple pressure-cooker took its toll, he still finished with top-flight numbers that weren't far off his career averages. And frankly, that's all that matters.
A few other thoughts:
- Johnny Damon played through a lot of pain last year, including a broken bone in his foot. He still managed 25 stolen bases, a three-year high, although he swiped only one bag in the final month of the year. Still, he didn't seem to have much trouble running some sprints (albeit not at full speed) Tuesday. I realize he's 33, but batting at the top of this Yankees lineup is a good way to ward off Father Time, and his ability to run makes him a very useful second or third outfielder.
- I think Kei Igawa is a pretty intriguing player, and judging by the 25-or-so Japanese media members who patiently waited around to talk to him Tuesday, I'm not alone. Projected as the Yankees' fifth starter, the lefty won't go very high on draft day in mixed leagues, if at all, but he should be on your radar. There's a potential for double-digit wins just by virtue of playing for the Yanks (see: Aaron Small, 2005), but of course we really don't know how he'll adjust to the American game. Not a bad guy to tack on at the end of your draft when you're just looking for names you recognize.
- No sign of Bernie Williams at camp ... not that you were going to draft him anyway, but nobody wants to see his Yankees career end with hard feelings.
The latest flap is over the "relationship" between Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. Don't get any ideas, Red Sox fans - I know A-Rod's recent comments about "not sleeping over Jeter's house" will give you boo-birds some ammo. But we're talking strictly about their friendship, or the perceived lack thereof in the past few years.
There was no sign of hard feelings between the two superstars when the Yankees began full-squad workouts at Legends Field on Tuesday. They were all smiles while taking batting practice together and running through some conditioning drills. And Jeter even responded to Rodriguez's comments a day later in a media session, reinforcing the idea the two aren't as close as they once were but haven't let that affect the clubhouse dynamic or play on the field.
For fantasy purposes, we have to remember these two guys have been lightning rods for controversy and headlines for most of their careers. Everything they say and do, every little happening, is going to be magnified and analyzed in the media spotlight. And while A-Rod's performance did take a slight dip last year as the Big Apple pressure-cooker took its toll, he still finished with top-flight numbers that weren't far off his career averages. And frankly, that's all that matters.
A few other thoughts:
- Johnny Damon played through a lot of pain last year, including a broken bone in his foot. He still managed 25 stolen bases, a three-year high, although he swiped only one bag in the final month of the year. Still, he didn't seem to have much trouble running some sprints (albeit not at full speed) Tuesday. I realize he's 33, but batting at the top of this Yankees lineup is a good way to ward off Father Time, and his ability to run makes him a very useful second or third outfielder.
- I think Kei Igawa is a pretty intriguing player, and judging by the 25-or-so Japanese media members who patiently waited around to talk to him Tuesday, I'm not alone. Projected as the Yankees' fifth starter, the lefty won't go very high on draft day in mixed leagues, if at all, but he should be on your radar. There's a potential for double-digit wins just by virtue of playing for the Yanks (see: Aaron Small, 2005), but of course we really don't know how he'll adjust to the American game. Not a bad guy to tack on at the end of your draft when you're just looking for names you recognize.
- No sign of Bernie Williams at camp ... not that you were going to draft him anyway, but nobody wants to see his Yankees career end with hard feelings.
Sunday, February 18, 2007
CLOSING TIME - AL
While pondering what ever happened to Semisonic, I decided to break down the various closer situations in the AL. Why? Well, because it's the one position that's directly linked to one fantasy stat (saves), and only one guy usually gets the job on each team. Also, because I'm a geek.
BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.
BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.
CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.
CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.
DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.
KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.
LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.
MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.
NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.
OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.
SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.
TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.
TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.
TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.
BALTIMORE
Chris Ray was a rookie revelation in 2006, notching 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA while replacing B.J. Ryan. The kid could be even better this year now that the Orioles have overhauled their bullpen (Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker) in an effort to compete with the hellish lineups of the AL East. Remains to be seen if those guys can hack it, but Ray has proven himself. Baez has solid closing experience just in case.
BOSTON
Talk about messing with a good thing. The Red Sox are taking a big gamble by moving Jonathan Papelbon - who was amazing as a rookie closer - into the rotation. He'll probably be succeeded by free-agent signee Joel Pineiro, owner of a bloated 6.36 ERA last year as a starter in Seattle. Pineiro has never closed in the big leagues before and made just 15 relief appearances in '06, where he was effective. Veterans Brendan Donnelly, Mike Timlin and Julian Tavarez are there if he falters, but they're all better suited as setup guys, and youngsters Craig Hansen and Manny Delcarman probably aren't ready at this point. Pineiro's likely the guy for now, and he'll get his chances, but there are a lot of other closers I'd take before calling his name.
CHICAGO
Hard-throwing Bobby Jenks was surprisingly reliable all year for the White Sox in his first full year as closer. He's reportedly lost about 25 pounds this offseason in an effort to be better conditioned (Guess he decided to listen to Ozzie Guillen after all), and with the Sox looking like contenders once more, he should approach the 40-save plateau again. If he can work that Trim Spa magic on his 4.00 ERA, he'll be among the AL's elite closers. Veteran Mike MacDougal is there in case he falters.
CLEVELAND
Touched on this situation in my last blog. Joe Borowski's the guy to own here now that Keith Foulke's called it a career. He'll get you saves, but he doesn't have the upside of some other younger guys out there.
DETROIT
Todd Jones has another go-around in Detroit. He's defied the odds the past two years with the Tigers and Marlins, saving 37 and 40 games, respectively. Jones is a little hard to figure ... he's not exactly overpowering (only 28 Ks in 64 innings last year); I guess a big part of it is he's a light-hearted guy who doesn't take himself too seriously, good traits for a closer. Joel Zumaya is breathing down his neck with those 100-plus mph fastballs (although it remains to be seen how our "Guitar Hero" fares after hurting himself air-guitaring on PS2. Take it easy on the "Smoke on the Water," big guy!). It's only a matter of time before Zumaya takes over the reins, but Jones is the man for the time being. Gotta draft the veteran first, but stick Zumaya in your back pocket anyway, because he can still help you.
KANSAS CITY
Octavio Dotel wasn't exactly the ace in the hole the Yankees were counting on for their middle-relief woes last season (only 10 IP), but apparently he showed enough in those fleeting moments for the Royals to sign him and stick him at the end of their bullpen. On the positive side, he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery (generally considered the grace period for pitchers to recover nowadays), and he's had success closing in the past with Oakland. K.C. would really like to have a stable closer after watching young Ambiorix Burgos and some other guys cough up leads on a nightly basis. Thirty-somethings David Riske and Joe Nelson are also around, but ideally the Royals would like to keep them as setup men.
LOS ANGELES
Did you realize Francisco Rodriguez is only 25? Damn. I'll probably rank K-Rod as my preseason No. 1 closer. Minuscule ratios, big strikeout numbers ... nothing not to like here. Scot (too cool for a second T) Shields is next in line, and he'd probably make a good closer on some other team, but the Halos smartly hung onto him for the eighth inning, where he excels. Shields can help those in deep mixed leagues.
MINNESOTA
If Rodriguez is No. 1, Joe Nathan is probably No. 1A. He came just short of 40 saves for a third straight season last year (36), but he reached new lows in ERA and WHIP. Once K-Rod's off the board, Nathan should quickly follow.
NEW YORK
You know the drill here. Mariano Rivera. Need we say more? Haters are waiting for him to fall off, and he really never has. In 2006, Mo didn't quite reach 2005's incredible numbers (probably should have won the Cy Young that year, but that's another story for another blog), yet he was still among the league's best. No reason to think otherwise this year, especially since Joe Torre and the Yanks are finally wising up about their overuse and abuse of their relievers. Supposedly, Rivera will be restricted only to the ninth inning, which should keep him off the DL and strong for the late summer (and postseason). Don't read too much into his recent mouthing off about his contract - Rivera's a straight shooter, and he deserves to get paid. Kyle Farnsworth would close in his absence, but you know that's basically a doomsday scenario for the Bombers.
OAKLAND
Huston Street looked like a big-time sophomore slump candidate at the start of last year. The 2005 AL Rookie of the Year sported an ERA well above 4.00 until June, and he blew a whopping 11 saves (second most among AL closers). He was dealing with a strained pectoral, however, and even spent some time on the DL. The A's are counting on a big bounceback, and so should you, because Street's a top-10 closer.
SEATTLE
J.J. Putz was no putz in '06 (36 saves, 2.30 ERA). He made both Eddie Guardado and Rafael Soriano expendable, really sinking his teeth into the Mariners' closer job. There could be some concern about how many opportunities Putz gets, which probably knocks him down just a peg from the elite guys, but that wasn't a huge problem last year even though the Ms were pretty dreadful. I think he can come close to those numbers again.
TAMPA BAY
His days as a starter are pretty much over, but Seth McClung has a decent shot at closing out games for the Devil Rays. Joe Maddon's bullpen was "amorphous" (his words) last year, but I'm sure in the second-year manager's ideal world McClung would clamp down, take over ninth-inning duties and never let go. The big guy (6-6, 255) has dominant stuff when he's on, but he's prone to breakdowns and the occasional bad luck that comes hand-in-hand with being a Ray. McClung's not gonna get a ton of save chances, and if he really tanks they won't hesitate to go to someone else (Dan Miceli? Shawn Camp? Who knows? Who cares?), but he's a sleeper to be sure.
TEXAS
Akinori Otsuka was so good last year (32-for-36 in save opportunities; 2.11 ERA). How do the Rangers reward him? By signing Eric Gagne and handing HIM Otsuka's closer role. It's easy to forget just how great the injury-prone Gagne used to be - a simpler time, back in the early '00s, when Britney Spears was hot. Can Gagne come back? Maybe. Anything's possible. Britney could grow her hair back (Apparently the carpet really does match the drapes now - just had to be the first to make that joke). Anyway, moving to the AL doesn't help Gagne's case, though, and neither does playing in Arlington. Could be a disaster. Texas would be prudent to hold onto Otsuka - who's not happy, as you'd expect - and he'll get chances when/if Gagne goes down or needs a break. Both guys have potential, which puts them both somewhere around the middle of the pack among the league's top 30 or so closers.
TORONTO
Lefty B.J. Ryan is an elite stopper, a lock to be among the top five closers drafted. He makes a lot of multiple-inning saves, which doesn't help matters when you're trying to squeeze a full season out of him, but Ryan is one of those rare guys capable of 100 Ks and 40 saves. You can build around him.
Foulke you!
Keith Foulke has retired without throwing a pitch for the Cleveland Indians, throwing their closer situation into a bit of disarray. Foulke was the clubhouse front-runner to win the closer's job, even though he hadn't earned a save since 2005 and hadn't really been the same since closing out the 2004 World Series for the Red Sox.
It's probably better this way, since the Indians won't have to pay him, and fantasy players won't have to waste a pick on the guy. And his retirement opens the door for veteran Joe Borowski to win the job. Borowski doesn't exactly have an extensive track record as a closer, but he's succeeded in the role before, in 2003 with the Cubs (33 saves) and last year with the Marlins (36 saves), so he's not a bad pick as a second-tier guy. Couple warning signs though: He's 35, he's switching back to the AL, and he actually signed with the Phillies this season as a setup guy but failed his physical.
Looking further down the Tribe's totem pole, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and the ageless Roberto Hernandez are waiting in the wings, but none of them has much appeal on draft day. Borowski's the guy for now.
Next up, I'll take a look at the rest of the closer situations around the AL, followed by the NL, so stay tuned.
It's probably better this way, since the Indians won't have to pay him, and fantasy players won't have to waste a pick on the guy. And his retirement opens the door for veteran Joe Borowski to win the job. Borowski doesn't exactly have an extensive track record as a closer, but he's succeeded in the role before, in 2003 with the Cubs (33 saves) and last year with the Marlins (36 saves), so he's not a bad pick as a second-tier guy. Couple warning signs though: He's 35, he's switching back to the AL, and he actually signed with the Phillies this season as a setup guy but failed his physical.
Looking further down the Tribe's totem pole, Fernando Cabrera, Rafael Betancourt and the ageless Roberto Hernandez are waiting in the wings, but none of them has much appeal on draft day. Borowski's the guy for now.
Next up, I'll take a look at the rest of the closer situations around the AL, followed by the NL, so stay tuned.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Cheat sheet
Spring has sprung. It may not be official yet, and the northerners up to their eyes in snowdrifts probably don't believe it, but players will slowly be trickling into major league camps in Florida and Arizona this week. Baseball is almost back.
With that in mind, here's my preliminary top 15 fantasy players to help you get started:
1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals:
Now a U.S. citizen, Phat Albert is the most dangerous American to wield a bat.
2. SS Jose Reyes, Mets:
One of the few players who combine outstanding speed with top-notch offensive production. He's got to be the first shortstop off the board.
3. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs:
Takes a slight dip because of the loss of 2B eligibility and the possible complacency that comes with a fat contract. But he still has 40-40 potential, and guys like that don't grow on trees. Plus, he didn't have Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez in the lineup in Washington.
4. 3B Ryan Howard, Phillies:
The secret's out this year, and you'll pay a lot more for Howard on draft day. But he could become the first player to crack 61 homers legitimately ... at least we think it's legitimate.
5. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees:
A-Rod posted elite numbers in what most considered a "down" year in 2006. I'm expecting another run at the MVP award ... and so are a million angry Yankees fans.
6. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox:
Virtually a lock for 40 homers and 130 RBIs as long as Manny is batting behind him in Beantown. Pretty much a safe bet.
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
Made a huge jump in the power department (41 HRs, 116 RBIs, both career highs) last year while still flashing some of his speed (17 SBs). Beltran will help you in multiple categories.
8. OF Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
If a Devil Ray bats .305, steals 58 bases and hits 18 home runs, does anyone notice? Fantasy players do. By the way, Crawford is 25 years old.
9. SP Johan Santana, Twins
Unquestionably the top pitcher in baseball, fantasy or otherwise. Draft him and pencil him in for 15 wins, 130-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. Move him up depending on how much your league values pitching.
10. 3B David Wright, Mets
A third-sacker capable of hitting .300 with 40 homers AND 20 steals. Now I know why the chicks dig him.
11. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
Already has the makings of a future Hall of Famer at age 23 after three stellar full seasons. Don't believe me? Check out his most similar players at baseball-reference.com. However, this news should be a tiny a concern.
12. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
Pronk was as dangerous as any hitter in the league last year before suffering a broken hand. He's an OPS machine and could make a run at an MVP if the Tribe lives up to lofty expectations.
13. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Enough evidence to suggest Utley is a considerable step ahead of the rest of the league's second basemen. There just aren't that many guys capable of doing what he can do at this position.
14. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Vlad will be on the wrong side of 30 this year, but that wouldn't scare me away from taking him early in the second round. You can still squeeze some more production out of him.
15. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
Pretty much the same story as our friend Big Papi: Like the sun rising in the East, Manny will get his 40 HRs and 130 RBIs if healthy.
With that in mind, here's my preliminary top 15 fantasy players to help you get started:
1. 1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals:
Now a U.S. citizen, Phat Albert is the most dangerous American to wield a bat.
2. SS Jose Reyes, Mets:
One of the few players who combine outstanding speed with top-notch offensive production. He's got to be the first shortstop off the board.
3. OF Alfonso Soriano, Cubs:
Takes a slight dip because of the loss of 2B eligibility and the possible complacency that comes with a fat contract. But he still has 40-40 potential, and guys like that don't grow on trees. Plus, he didn't have Derrek Lee or Aramis Ramirez in the lineup in Washington.
4. 3B Ryan Howard, Phillies:
The secret's out this year, and you'll pay a lot more for Howard on draft day. But he could become the first player to crack 61 homers legitimately ... at least we think it's legitimate.
5. 3B Alex Rodriguez, Yankees:
A-Rod posted elite numbers in what most considered a "down" year in 2006. I'm expecting another run at the MVP award ... and so are a million angry Yankees fans.
6. DH David Ortiz, Red Sox:
Virtually a lock for 40 homers and 130 RBIs as long as Manny is batting behind him in Beantown. Pretty much a safe bet.
7. Carlos Beltran, Mets
Made a huge jump in the power department (41 HRs, 116 RBIs, both career highs) last year while still flashing some of his speed (17 SBs). Beltran will help you in multiple categories.
8. OF Carl Crawford, Devil Rays
If a Devil Ray bats .305, steals 58 bases and hits 18 home runs, does anyone notice? Fantasy players do. By the way, Crawford is 25 years old.
9. SP Johan Santana, Twins
Unquestionably the top pitcher in baseball, fantasy or otherwise. Draft him and pencil him in for 15 wins, 130-plus Ks and a sub-3.00 ERA. Move him up depending on how much your league values pitching.
10. 3B David Wright, Mets
A third-sacker capable of hitting .300 with 40 homers AND 20 steals. Now I know why the chicks dig him.
11. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Marlins
Already has the makings of a future Hall of Famer at age 23 after three stellar full seasons. Don't believe me? Check out his most similar players at baseball-reference.com. However, this news should be a tiny a concern.
12. DH Travis Hafner, Indians
Pronk was as dangerous as any hitter in the league last year before suffering a broken hand. He's an OPS machine and could make a run at an MVP if the Tribe lives up to lofty expectations.
13. 2B Chase Utley, Phillies
Enough evidence to suggest Utley is a considerable step ahead of the rest of the league's second basemen. There just aren't that many guys capable of doing what he can do at this position.
14. OF Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
Vlad will be on the wrong side of 30 this year, but that wouldn't scare me away from taking him early in the second round. You can still squeeze some more production out of him.
15. OF Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
Pretty much the same story as our friend Big Papi: Like the sun rising in the East, Manny will get his 40 HRs and 130 RBIs if healthy.
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