Saturday, December 23, 2006

Great Dayne?

-This isn't easy for me as a Giants fan, but I'm recommending Ron Dayne this week. Not one of my favorite players, and his record as a pro is pretty spotty. That being said, the guy's on a considerable roll right now (at least 87 rushing yards in his last three games, plus three TDs in that span) and it comes at the perfect time - he faces the Colts on Sunday, and you know all about their run defense. Just recognize the risk involved (it's Ron Dayne after all, and he is a Texan). It's a gamble worth taking if you're lacking a solid No. 2 back.

-A stronger bet is Ladell Betts, who's making his case to be part of a platoon with Clinton Portis next season. Four straight 100-yard efforts make him almost a no-brainer against the Rams this week. That Skins backfield situation will be really interesting next season. And at the start of this year, who could have guessed we'd be considering Betts a better fantasy option than Shaun Alexander?

-As if you needed any more incentive to start Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor has been ruled out this week. Get him in that lineup.

-Is Tim Rattay actually a legit fantasy start? Well, the Bucs' offense finally stopped its Weekend at Bernie's impression last week in a surprisingly competitive game with the Bears, and most of that was due to Rattay (268 yards, three TDs). Unlike most of the other late-season replacement QBs around the league this year, Rattay actually has some NFL seasoning, and he's got a great matchup against the Browns. If you've got a void at QB, you could do worse. Just be a little wary of these late-season games that pit two bottom-feeders (see Thursday's Packers-Vikings game, last week's Packers-Lions game) - facing a poor defense isn't always a cure-all for a bad offense.

-Speaking of the Bucs, Cadillac Williams is out this week - too bad, because he misses out on the Brownies, a rare team he might have been able to run against. Michael Pittman will get most of the work, with a little Mike Alstott mixed in, but I don't think I'd be willing to risk my playoff life on either of those guys unless I'm in a super-deep league or I can time-warp to 2001.

-I'd ride the Mike Vick rollercoaster again this week. You never really know what you're going to get out of the guy, but he's got a tantalizing matchup at home against a Carolina's bruised bodies and bruised egos. His groin seems to be OK, and the last time he was coming off a four-TD game he followed it up with three scores (waiting another week to fizzle against the Lions and Browns and give his owners the finger).

-Gotta have a little Laveranues Coles in your stocking this Christmas (get it?) against the Dolphins ... he's had a couple huge games this year (last week included), and although his dealing with some back issues, the dude never misses games, and he always comes up big against Miami.

-Speaking of the Jets, this photo offers some insight on mastermind coach Eric Mangini's offensive gameplanning meetings. I think the furry red guy might be Brian Schottenheimer.

-Vernon Davis has scored in three of his first five games as a pro. If not for that broken leg he'd be near the top of all these discussions of the Great Rookie Class of '06. Start him against Arizona and keep him on your 2007 watch list. He'll be next year's Kellen Winslow.

-I like Buffalo's defense against Tennessee. Vince Young may be the greatest QB in the history of football, but I think the Bills will force the rook to make some mistakes up at the Ralph and maybe even score another TD.

-Willie Parker's been great, but he might have a tough time against the Ravens, who stuffed him in their first meeting (22 yards). Unless you're really deep at RB you might have to suck it up and start him, though. Hines Ward is an easier choice, as Ben Roethlisberger will be testing that hurting Baltimore secondary - as long as Big Ben can stay upright this time.

-I'd probably stay away from Donte' Stallworth this week. Last week's five-yard showing brought an end to a lot of fantasy seasons, and Stallworth's totals have been a mixed bag since Jeff Garcia took over as Eagles QB. Don't let your fate rest on this guy.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Damn you Mannings!

Plenty of playoff matchups were decided by Monday night's Colts-Bengals showdown, my own included. I had a decent-sized lead on my opponent entering that game, but that lucky S.O.B. had both Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison in his lineup. I knew I'd have to hold my breath and pray for a miracle.

After the first Manning-to-Harrison TD I was dismayed but still hanging on to hope. After the duo's second TD connection, I was fuming. Stupid Bengals defense! How about a little more time studying film and a little less lawbreaking? By the third Manning-Marvin hookup, I think I switched over to some mid-90s world billiards championship on the Deuce. And with that, another season was in the books.

Sure, it was a disappointing end. Not only was I burned by Peyton, I started Eli Manning and he did diddly squat against the Eagles. Double-damn those Manning brothers (I got no beef with Cooper though).

It also didn't help that I didn't even sniff the postseason in my other main league thanks to an ill-fated roster that included LaMont Jordan, Clinton Portis, Chris Chambers, Mike Vanderjagt, Kurt Warner, Eli and the Bucs defense. Talk about ugly! But those are the breaks in fantasy land. It looked good on paper back in August.

I'm sure plenty of you have your own horror stories and heartbreaking tales from the 2006 season. And I bet a lucky few are still alive this week, perhaps thanks to that awesome display by Peyton and Co. I'll have some lineup advice for you later in the week, and as always, post your questions/comments right here or send them via e-mail to jbartolone@semosportsweb.com.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Playoffs??!!?

Many apologies for my recent slacking on the blog updates. I spent last weekend in my home state of New Jersey with my fiancee for a combined bachelor party/wedding shower, plus a trip to NYC, so I only got to sneak in a little bit of football watching. I'll let you guess which was greater: total beers consumed by yours truly, or number of spatulas we received as gifts. But anyway, I'm totallly focused on this weekend's crucial playoff matchups, and I'd like to make it up to you with some advice for Week 15:

-Arlen Harris seems like a quick fix for anyone suffering a code-red emergency at RB, particularly those who had Kevin Jones. Facing the Green Bay Packers might make just about anyone a semi-attractive fantasy option. But think carefully about what you're doing: Do you really want your playoff fate riding on Arlen Harris?

-While I'm not a big fan of Harris this week, I like just about everybody else in the Lions-Packers showdown: Donald Driver, Ahman Green, Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Brett Favre, heck, even Jon Kitna. On paper, this game should be a fantasy points bonanza.

-Speaking of which, Monday night's Colts-Bengals tilt shouldn't be half-bad either if it comes anywhere close to last season's shootout. Rudi Johnson owners are salivating, and rightfully so against that sorry run defense of Indy's. Cincinnati's pass D isn't that much better, so Peyton Manning and Co. seem in line for their usual aerial success. With Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley out, Bryan Fletcher, Ben Utecht or even Ricky Proehl (yup, he's back!) might get in on the action, but you know none of those guys is a sure thing. As for the Bengals, the studs should get their numbers - even Chris Henry, assuming he's not incarcerated in the next few days.

-I like Cedric Benson a lot against the defense formerly known as the Buccaneers. Benson was already seeing a steady increase in carries before Thomas Jones tweaked his ankle. Jones is listed as questionable.

-If you really need help, give Justin Fargas a try. He's auditioning for a starting role and a new contract in 2007, and while he's been mediocre so far since with the Raiders, the Rams' run defense might offer the big breakthrough he's been looking for.

-Flash-in-the-pan Saints FB Mike Karney is not the solution, three TDs be damned. Didn't the Marcel Shipp saga teach you anything? Karney goes back to being Deuce McAllister's personal plow this week. Stick with the rest of the Saints' skill players instead - except Joe Horn, who's shut down for the rest of the regular season.

-How fun is Sunday night's LT vs. LJ matchup going to be for fantasy players? This could actually be the first time where the networks' hyping of individual players actually means more than the game itself. Between the Chiefs-Chargers on Sunday and the Colts-Bengals on Monday night, there could be some record ratings in store thanks to the fantasy playoffs. Enjoy, and good luck.

Monday, December 04, 2006

WEEK 13 - Sunday Recap

-There were a number of huge performances this week from guys who were probably on most owners' benches. Start with Reggie Bush, who had that USC-esque game we've been waiting for (four TDs), but given his track record so far, I can't blame you for not starting him. And he's probably too risky to start next Sunday night at Dallas except as a flex player.

-And how about Marcel Shipp? Talk about a blast from the past ... dude hasn't scored a TD since 2002, then out of nowhere he busts out THREE against the Rams. Please don't be the guy who goes and picks up Shipp today off the waiver wire .... Edgerrin James even cracked 100 yards against St. Louis' sorry run defense - couldn't he have at least taken one of those TDs, if only so Edge owners could say they at least got one good game out of their first-rounder?

-Corey Dillon also joined Week 13's three-TD club. Not a huge surprise since it came against the Lions - but he did have only 25 yards on nine carries, and Laurence Maroney (four for 14 yards) was even worse.

-Cedric Houston ground out 105 yards and two scores as the Jets pounded the Packers. Hey, I thought Leon Washington was going to get most of the carries ... what gives? I guess Eric Mangini is the new Mike Shanahan ....

-You probably figured the Chiefs would just pound the ball with Larry Johnson against the Browns. And of course the ever-reliable L.J. got his 100 yards, but Trent Green goes nuts for 297 yards and four TDs.

-The winds of change are blowing in Chicago, and it doesn't involve Rex Grossman (the Bears are still sticking with him, but hopefully you punted him weeks ago) ... Cedric Benson has been steadily cutting into Thomas Jones' workload these past couple weeks, and he's got a TD in his last two games. If you need help the next couple weeks, think about starting Benson against the Rams and/or Bucs since he's getting about 10 carries a game and is a good bet for a score.

-LaDainian Tomlinson: 178 yards, two TDs. That's it? Come on, man. Step it up.

-How far has former USC stud Mike Williams fallen? Well, besides watching Mike Furrey become a fantasy force for the Lions, Josh McCown is getting more snaps at WR than him. Yeah, THAT Josh McCown, the backup QB. Let's hope Dwayne Jarrett fares better.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

WEEK 12 - Sunday Recap

-OK, so I was a little off on my "sit Willis McGahee" advice .... but seriously, who could have predicted two TDs? ... between the broken ribs, the splitting of carries with Anthony Thomas, the Jags' supposed run-stopping abilities and the fact that McGahee had one TD entering the game .... I guess that's why they play the games.

-What's going on with Torry Holt? The dude was on fire earlier in the year, scoring a TD every week in a five-game stretch that culminated with a 154-yard, three-TD showing in Week 8 against Seattle. Then came the bye, and he hasn't scored or cracked 73 receiving yards since. The tough part is he's been so good and so consistent for so long, it's almost impossible to imagine benching him. He could break out at any time - especially this week against Arizona.

-Looks like Shaun Alexander's foot is juuuuust fine. He should benefit from having fresh legs down the stretch. Getting 40 carries a game won't hurt either.

-LaDainian Tomlinson has been incredible (three more TDs last week - including another one passing!), but you almost wish he'd save some of these scores for the fantasy playoffs when we REALLY need them. Here's hoping he can keep up this amazing run.

-So much for Mike Vanderjagt being a top fantasy option this year. Damn Idiot Kicker. See what I mean about kickers and defenses being unpredictable? I'm not sure Martin Gramatica will be any better though.

-You have to love what Drew Brees and the Saints are doing right now. WR Devery Henderson (154 yards, TD vs. Atlanta) is a must-own, and Terrance Copper should get a shot too as long as Marques Colston's hand is still a problem. And as I expected, Deuce McAllister (74 yards, two TDs) is a much better option than Reggie Bush (45 total yards), who doesn't really even deserve a roster spot at this point except in really deep leagues.

-You might not guess it on the surface, but if you've got Chester Taylor as one of your top two backs, you might be playing with fire. Sure, he's scored three times in the last two games and just gashed the Cardinals, but up next are the Bears, who are capable (although not always consistently) of shutting down the run and held Taylor to 74 yards and no TDs in their first meeting this season. After that, things get considerably easier for Taylor and the Vikes (Lions, Jets, Packers, Rams), but Taylor has been dealing with "body soreness" in his first full season as a featured back. Those look like appealing matchups, but I'd have a backup plan just in case he hits a wall in the near future.

-It's time to think about benching Eli Manning if you haven't already. I have to admit I had much higher hopes for young Elisha, both as a Giants fan and as a fantasy player with Manning on two of my teams. I was even so bold as to predict he'd finish with slightly better numbers than Peyton a few weeks ago, back when the G-Men actually looked like a playoff team. But if Eli couldn't break out of it against the Titans, then it's hard to imagine things getting much better the rest of the way. I'm not saying he should be benched in real life, nor should you go cutting him and picking up Bruce Gradkowski or something, because the potential is still there for Eli ... but if you've got another proven QB on your roster or a nice matchup, by all means, go for it.

-I thought Leon Washington was just starting to become a valuable commodity a few weeks ago, but the Jets' backfield has been a mysterious mess, and they couldn't even do anything against the Texans. Washington's stock has plummeted the past few weeks, while the value of his rookie trading card has skyrocketed ("East siiiide!"). You need to start thinking about a possible upgrade if you've got Leon or any of the Jets' runners as a third or fourth RB.

-Sunday was a day to forget for Willie Parker (10 carries, 22 yards) and the rest of the reigning Super Bowl champs. They were flat-out steamrolled by the Ravens in a shutout loss, though it was easy to imagine going in that Parker might not have much room to run and the Steelers would be playing from behind. Fast Willie hasn't exactly been consistent, but he's had his share of big games, and I'd expect two more in the coming weeks against the Bucs and Browns.

-That reminds me, it might be easy to forget about the weekly Thursday game now, especially if you don't have the NFL Network, but you'll want to get your Bengals and Ravens in your starting lineup ASAP.

-And by the way, It looks like the NFL is losing its battle with the major cable companies so far. It seems their hard-line stance hasn't worked out the way they had expected by now. Here's hoping the league will give in and lower its price so all of us can enjoy these Thursday games - without extra charges on our cable bill.

-It seems like ages ago but we should touch on the Thanksgiving games too:

Joey Harrington was predictably good against a bad Lions defense, though it would be great if Chris Chambers could have gotten just a little piece of the action. ...

Tony Romo was surprisingly great against the Bucs. You should basically start all your offensive players against the Bucs' D because they've inexplicably fallen off the face of the Earth and can't stop anybody - just don't expect five passing TDs all the time. ...

And Larry Johnson turned in another fine performance. I probably don't need to say this, but never bench him. I don't think anyone is sorry they drafted him, and if it wasn't for LT's otherworldly production the past few weeks LJ would be getting a lot more pub.

-And finally, for those of you who are also college football fans, or just readers of blogs in general, check out my friend Rick Burchfield's college football blog.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Cutler gets the call

There's a report out there that the Broncos are going to hand over the starting QB reins to rookie Jay Cutler after watching Jake Plummer struggle all season. Cutler is intriguing from a fantasy perspective, as he's been considered by some to be the most NFL-ready QB in this year's rookie class. He also takes over control of a team thought to be a playoff contender, and ESPN's John Clayton says the change is expected to be permanent. It's probably safe to dump Plummer at this point - and let's face it, he probably wasn't helping too many teams out there anyway - and Cutler is worth a shot if you're looking for QB help.

Some other things you need to know:

-Saints rookie sensation Marques Colston will be a game-time decision with his high ankle sprain, which means you should probably look elsewhere if you have options. Hopefully the guy will be back soon to solidify that offensive rookie of the year award.

-The Bills are optimistic Willis McGahee will make his return against Jacksonville today. If he does, I'd imagine he'd split some carries with Anthony Thomas at least for one week and have a hard time against the Jags' run defense. Sit him for another week if you can.

-Matt Hasselbeck is expected to start Monday against Green Bay, and after seeing what Tom Brady and the Pats did to the Packers last week, this should be a great opportunity for Hasselbeck to shake off that rust.

Monday, November 20, 2006

WEEK 11 - Sunday Recap

It was a pretty exciting football weekend from start to finish, with lots of huge performances and big injuries to talk about. So let's do this.

-We'll start with Donovan McNabb. Mr. Chunky Soup himself was shaping up to be 2006 Fantasy MVP, but now he's gone for the season (again), this time with a torn ACL. This is a crushing blow, and I don't think Jeff Garcia is going to be of much use as a backup plan. You may want to see if somebody like Tony Romo or Steve McNair is still up for grabs. Good luck with that.

-LaDainian Tomlinson ... four TDs ... we're not worthy! To quote one of my old high school football teammates, "I'M A MACHINE!!!!!"

-Lee Evans gave us a sneak preview of that new Denzel Washington movie Deja Vu with not one but two 83-yard TD catches in the same quarter against Houston. Evans has had some clunkers this season, but the deep threat was a good option against the Texans, and he rewarded owners with a 265-yard showing, the most put up by a WR this season. He's the kind of guy you've got to roll the dice on each week unless you've got two studs ahead of him on your depth chart.

-Chad Johnson had another sick game (190 yards, three TDs), even with a sore hamstring. I think that early season slump is pretty much over, don't you?

-Lost in all the commotion was Drew Brees' 500 (yes, 500) yards passing in a loss to Cincy. He's flinging the ball around like he was in the Arena League (TDs to Joe Horn and Terrance Copper this time), although he did lose rookie sensation Marques Colston to an ankle sprain, plus he was picked off three times (twice in the end zone). The Saints' defensive problems are only helping Brees, as he's had to play catch-up lately. I'd expect him to air it out again next Sunday against Atlanta.

-Tom Brady had a predictably fine day (four TDs) against a pathetic Packers passing defense, but Brett Favre didn't hold up his end of the bargain in what should have been a shootout. The Pats' secondary was missing three starters, and Favre - who's been playing well and not turning it over, plus he was playing at home, in good weather - couldn't get anything (and I mean anything) done before leaving with an injured arm. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him start next Monday at Seattle - there's no way in hell wily ol' Brett is gonna let that Aaron Rodgers kid stay on the field, future of the franchise be damned!

-Frank Gore had another ridiculous game (212 yards). He's got the kind of young legs that can help carry you through the playoffs, plus a very favorable schedule (St. Louis, New Orleans, Green Bay, Seattle, Arizona, Denver), so you may want to think about acquiring him if someone attempts to sell high after this performance. The only cause for concern is an early-season fumbling problem that popped up again Sunday.

-Shaun Alexander was just ... eh in his much-awaited return to the lineup (17 carries for 37 yards). Not exactly what we had in mind, but I understand it might take him a while to get his rhythm back. I'd expect a little more against the Packers on Monday.

-I love the suit look from Niners coach Mike Nolan. Very classy move by the anti-Bill Belichick - I didn't even see any ketchup stains!

-The Cowboys' upset of the previously undefeated Colts was due in large part to their commitment to the running game. Once again that was a bittersweet pill for Julius Jones owners, however, as he rushed 22 times for 79 yards but yielded two short-yardage TDs to Marion Barber III. Jones was even brought down at the 1-yard line on one run. It's gotten to the point that Barber is a better fantasy option than Jones. Sad but true.

-Another injury note: Kevin Jones left with an ankle sprain after managing eight yards on four carries. No word on the extent yet, but it might be asking a lot for him to be back and ready to go on Turkey Day against Miami.

-Edgerrin James actually cracked the 90-yard mark for the first time this season. You may want to consider dealing him if you can find a gullible trading partner since Edge has put up three straight above-average rush totals.

-Braylon Edwards' big game (137 yards, TD) against the Steelers could have been even bigger. He had two desperation end-zone heaves - one just before halftime and one at the end of the game - bounce off his hands. But the real story is he's looking fully recovered from that knee surgery, and I like him a lot next week against a Bengals D that was just lit up by Brees.

-Is there a less surprising headline than "LaMont Jordan likely done for year with torn MCL?" Most owners might have guessed he actually tore it weeks ago but didn't tell anyone. Anyway, the real news is Justin Fargas, who was already chipping away at Jordan's carries, is going to get a lot of work the rest of the way. I wouldn't expect much on the road against San Diego next week, but Week 13 against Houston seems like as good a day as any for a breakout game.

-Trent Green didn't do a whole lot in his return from a concussion, as you would expect - especially with Tony Gonzalez (separated shoulder) out. Green's main job was to hand off to Larry Johnson (31 carries, 154 yards, two TDs), and rightfully so. Look for more of the same on Thanksgving against Denver - only if you get the NFL Network, that is.

-The Broncos' RB situation is kind of like the NFL's version of The OC, only with a lot fewer skinny white chicks. There's lots of drama, shocking revelations and gossip on a weekly basis. Tatum Bell stars as the stud with personal problems (fumbling, turf toe). Mike Bell plays the young newcomer who doesn't always get along with his hardass dad (Mike Shanahan). Damien Nash is the new kid in town. Cedric Cobbs' character was killed off weeks ago in a freak chemical explosion.

Seriously though ... Mike Bell thinks his deactivation in Week 10 was a message from the coaching staff, and he responded with 90 yards and two TDs against the Chargers. Nash also made some big plays, garnering 56 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards after basically doing nothing all season. But it could all be a moot point as Denver was reportedly resting Tatum's toes in anticipation of getting the most out of him Thursday against the Chiefs. We've known since preseason this situation would be hard to read, but this is taking it to new extremes. Be thankful if you don't have to deal with it on a weekly basis.

-I almost forgot to mention the Rams, but there really wasn't much to see here. In another column this week I mentioned that outside of LT and LJ, Steven Jackson was the one highly-regarded RB from the preseason who hasn't been disappointing in any way this year - and then he gets just 27 yards on the ground and 30 through the air in St. Louis' stinker against Carolina. Don't press the panic button though after one bad game. Patience, grasshopper.

-Speaking of disappointments, Cadillac Williams actually cracked the century mark for the second time this year. Just don't hold your breath for it to happen Thursday at Dallas.

-There are a few somewhat misleading point totals worth mentioning. Jamal Lewis had a career-high three TDs in the second half against Atlanta, but even Lewis admitted the Ravens running game took advantage of a tired Falcons D late in the game. I'm not ready to declare him a must-start from here on out. The same goes for Chester Taylor, who finished with 80 yards and two TDs but was also stopped on the goal line, fumbled twice and averaged 2.9 yards a carry. You'll have to consider the matchup carefully before inserting Taylor in your lineup now that he's without fine fullback and lead blocker Tony Richardson (arm).

-Jason Campbell was OK in his first start, but I don't expect a PS3-style mad rush to go out and get him off the waiver wire. It is a good sign, however, that he recognizes TE Chris Cooley (five catches, 58 yards, TE) is a weapon.

-There were 10 defensive/special teams TDs scored Sunday, including two each by Cleveland, Miami and Cincinnati, but none by the Ravens or Bears. Go figure. Once again this proves defenses are extremely hard to predict.