Thursday, September 13, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 2

It's still early, so don't overreact if you started out 0-1 (like I did) and start overhauling your roster.

If you can't resist, however, or if you just realized you drafted three kickers, here are a couple guys you might look into picking up:

• RB Chris Brown, Tennessee Titans: Brown smoked the Chiefs (19 carries, 175 yards) and left platoon-mate LenDale White (18 carries, 66 yards) in his dust.

The bad news: The platoon might still be in place for the foreseeable future, the Titans won't play the Chiefs every game, and it's Chris Brown. A useful pickup, but don't get too excited.

• RB Derrick Ward, New York Giants: The spry, little-used Ward did his best Tiki Barber impression after Brandon Jacobs went down with a knee injury Sunday night (116 total yards, TD).

The bad news: The bulk of those yards came in one 44-yard chunk, the Cowboys defense didn't seem much interested in stopping the Giants, and Reuben Droughns is still lurking in the backfield. Jacobs could also be back in a few weeks, but for the short term, I'd rather have Ward, as Droughns is playing fullback.

• WR Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders: There was some potential for either Curry or Jerry Porter to be a contributor this year. Curry (133 yards, TD) took a big step forward, while Porter (two catches, 26 yards) didn't. In fact, Curry led all NFL receivers with 10 catches in Week 1.

The bad news: Just when Curry was showing a little rapport with QB Josh McCown, we learn McCown hurt his finger and foot in Week 1, and Daunte Culpepper may take over the starting reins. Who knows what we can expect from him. Oh, and they're also facing a challenging Broncos defense this week. Consider yourself warned.

Worried about Steven Jackson?

Just a few weeks ago I said I had no worries about making Steven Jackson the No. 2 overall fantasy pick this year. True to my word, I even went out and did exactly that in one of my drafts.

Jackson rewarded me with a 58-yard, no-TD opener against Carolina. Even more disconcerting, he caught just one pass for three yards, lost two fumbles, and his best blocker, Rams left tackle Orlando Pace, got hurt and is out for the year?

So am I worried yet? No. Here are three reasons why:

1. Carolina had Jackson's number last year, too. They held him to just 27 yards in Week 10 of 2006, by far his lowest output last season. The Panthers can play a little defense.

2. Pace missed the last seven games of last season. Jackson's rushing average during that stretch: 106 yards a game. Throwing out the Carolina game, which came the week following Pace's injury: 119 yards a game. And he continued to be a receiving threat. Pace's absence won't hurt Jackson that much this year, either.

3. Jackson faces the 49ers this week. The same 49ers that let him rush for 103 yards and 121 yards in their two matchups last season. The same 49ers that also let him catch nine passes for 91 yards in their second meeting last year. If Jackson doesn't have a nice day this Sunday, maybe then I'll start considering possibly thinking about worrying.

But not now.

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Thursday outlook

Enough of this preseason crap ... let's play some real football!

Saints-Colts seems like a heck of a way to kick off the 2007 season. It's one of those dream matchups for fantasy nerds like myself thanks to all the skill players involved. Here are some thoughts ....

• You want to start pretty much everybody involved in this one. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Joseph Addai and Reggie Bush are all obvious must-starts ... if you didn't already know that, you're pretty much hopeless.

• Marques Colston has been hampered by injuries since last year, and there's a little uncertainty surrounding him this year since he hasn't gotten much preseason work. He's also just a second-year guy who won't have the benefit of being an unknown like last year (anybody who owned Michael Clayton in 2005 is nodding their head in agreement right now). Defenses will be waiting for him. There will be a lot of pressure on him.

With all that being said, I'd start him this week unless you're super stacked at WR. This game has "track meet" written all over it, and until he does something to fall out of that second tier of fantasy's top receivers, he deserves to be in your lineup.

• Deuce McAllister is a pretty good option too, depending on your league size and your roster depth. He could be a No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy tailback right now depending on your situation, but this seems like a pretty favorable matchup against a defense that looks downgraded from last year's and should struggle against the run. I think Deuce will be used basically the same as he was last year while sharing the load with Bush, which makes him a nice play.

• As for the tight ends, Dallas Clark might do something, but he can be kind of hit or miss. There are probably better options out there unless you're in a really deep league. And while I like Eric Johnson as a sleeper this year for the Saints, it's too early to play him unless you're really thin. I'm interested to see how New Orleans uses him in the early going.

• Devery Henderson and Anthony Gonzalez are fringe fantasy players right now. Although it's a favorable matchup for both, they're more like bye week fill-ins rather than starters this early in the season.

Start your studs

I’ve got a serious question, and I’m hoping someone out there can help me answer it.

Should I start Carson Palmer this weekend?

Sure, I was thrilled to draft him in two of my leagues, once in the second round and once in the third (yes, third!) round. Sure, he’s pretty much the consensus No. 2 fantasy quarterback this year, just a hair behind Peyton Manning. Sure, he threw for more than 4,000 yards last year and rung up 28 touchdown passes. But he’s playing the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday – aren’t they supposed to have a pretty good defense or something?

OK, you got me. I wasn’t really being serious – I had Palmer penciled in as my starter about two seconds after I called out his name on draft day. There’s no way in heck I’m sitting him this week, or any week for that matter, Ravens or no Ravens. I was just trying to make a point: When you’re setting your lineup, please don’t think too much.

If you’ve got Palmer or Manning or Steven Jackson or Marvin Harrison or Shaun Alexander, you play them, no questions asked. I don’t care if they’re facing a superdefense made up of 11 genetically-engineered Brian Urlacher clones and coached by the ghost of Buddy Ryan himself – if a guy was good enough to be drafted in the first or second round, and he’s able to stand upright this week, you start him.

Some owners have a tendency to overanalyze their lineup choices to the point of absurdity. Yeah, Drew Brees is awesome, but I like Tarvaris Jackson’s upside! LaDainian Tomlinson might only score twice this week! I heard Larry Johnson’s got a papercut!

Don’t be like those guys. Always start your studs.

On the other hand, not every guy on your team is a stud. For those hard-to-make roster choices, here are some guidelines:

• Don’t play with fire: Randy Moss hasn’t caught one ball this preseason. His hamstring’s hurting (again). He’s on a new team that’s notorious for secretive injury reports, unexpected offensive gameplans and spreading the ball around. And his Wikipedia entry contains a four-paragraph entry subtitled “Lack of effort.” Does that sound like someone you want in your lineup in Week 1? Didn’t think so.

• Beware timeshares: It’s usually safer to go with a middle-tier guy who’s a proven feature back (Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee) over a player expected to split carries (Ladell Betts, Jerious Norwood), especially in Week 1. It won’t hurt to at least wait a game and see how those workloads are going to be divided.

Yes, most of us believe rookie Adrian Peterson will eventually be the lead horse in Minnesota, but sometimes it takes a few weeks for those situations to play themselves out. Joseph Addai had just seven carries for 26 yards in Week 1 last year, and we all know how that one turned out by season’s end. Give it time.

• Prepare for growing pains: Marshawn Lynch might dominate the NFL. Calvin Johnson might be a Hall of Famer. But until they play a down in a meaningful game, it’s hard to consider them as anything more than luxury items with potential. Few skill players are ready to step into the NFL and perform at a consistently high level as rookies, so before you crown yourself executive of the year for drafting a future star, let’s see if he’s actually ready to contribute.

Monday, September 03, 2007

Tales from the draft

I'm sure a lot of you drafted over the weekend. I took part in two drafts for my two main leagues: one in a gathering of some friends and colleagues, the other via cell phone to a location 1,100 miles away.

Here's how I made out:

LEAGUE 1
12 teams, 7th overall pick

NITTANY LOINS:

QB Carson Palmer
QB JP Losman

RB Frank Gore
RB Brandon Jacobs
RB Ladell Betts
RB Chester Taylor

WR Terrell Owens
WR Andre Johnson
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Brandon Jones

TE Chris Cooley
TE Tony Scheffler

K David Akers
K John Kasay

Miami Defense
Dallas Defense

I was thrilled to have Gore drop to me with the No. 7 pick. I was expecting to get Shaun Alexander or somebody like that ... I had Gore at No. 4 in my overall rankings.

Snagged Palmer in the second round ... I put him basically in the same class as Peyton Manning, who went in the first round. I'm not a big T.O. fan, at least not in real life, but I had to grab him since he was the last elite WR available. Thrilled to get Jacbos, Betts and A. Johnson ... Not too sure about Taylor but not bad for a No. 4 ... I like the Dolphins too, mostly because of Ted Ginn Jr.


LEAGUE 2
10 teams, standard scoring, 2nd overall pick

ACE IN THE HOLE:

QB Carson Palmer
QB Eli Manning

RB Steven Jackson
RB Thomas Jones
RB Cedric Benson
RB Jerious Norwood

WR Lee Evans
WR Plaxico Burress
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Joey Galloway

TE Alge Crumpler
TE Bo Scaife

K Shayne Graham
K Jay Feely

New England defense
San Francisco defense

This is my big-money league, and my dad and I are co-owners. We really tanked last year (hence the second pick), in large part because of some big-time duds at RB (Clinton Portis, LaMont Jordan). So we decided to go pretty heavy on the tailbacks. Jackson was an obvious choice at with the No. 2 pick, then I opted for Jones in the second round. Benson as a third-string RB was the icing on the cake, and I love Norwood as my No. 4.

I was thrilled to have Palmer fell to us in the third round. Looks like I'm a Bengals fan this year! It should make my teams a little easier to follow on Sundays, if nothing else.

Receiving corps is a little iffy, but that's the trade-off for loading up on running backs. The league scoring tends to be a little RB-biased anyway, which works to my advantage. Not thrilled about Crumpler, but what can you do?

Anyway, overall I was pretty happy with both drafts, but it seems like that's always the case. You never really know until the season plays out. I'll keep you updated on how I'm doing this season. Feel free to share some thoughts about how your own drafts turned out.

Saturday, September 01, 2007

Jags make a change

A surprising note from Friday: Jacksonville is going with David Garrard as its starting QB and plans to trade or release Byron Leftwich.

It's common knowledge the Jags have been less than pleased with what they've gotten out of Leftwich during his tenure as the starter, and he and coach Jack Del Rio haven't been BFFs. But the QB change comes as a bit of a shock this late in the season since the Jags had been saying all along Leftwich was the starter.

So what's the fantasy impact? It's not as if Leftwich is a stud or anything, but he's been a semi-useful player and was probably slotted as a decent No. 2 option this year. If you've already drafted him as your backup, you don't necessarily have to go dropping him until we see where he lands - if he goes to another team with an unsettled QB situation, he might have a shot to be a starter again soon.

I had Lefty ranked No. 26 among QBs before this news, behind guys such as Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman, Jason Campbell, Trent Green and Matt Schaub, so if you can safely replace him with one of those other signal-callers, go ahead.

As for Garrard, he has basically the same projected value as Leftwich, although he will run a little more. That offense isn't exactly a powerhouse, and I may be biased, but I picked him up once when he was filling in for Leftwich for a stretch against some weak teams, and he was fairly disappointing. So I rate him as a very low-end No. 2.

Science fiction

Fantasy football is not a science.

As much as some fantasy “experts” try to crunch numbers, analyze data and apply formulas to their rankings and projections, this game is really just a crapshoot.

Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been known to break out a little scientific method now and then, trying to bring a little order to the chaotic universe of fantasy football. Part of my job involves taking all the information that’s out there and making sense of it all.

But in the end, science can only take you so far. Science couldn’t predict what Marques Colston did last year. And science has no explanation for how Warrick Dunn has lasted in the NFL this long.

There are no absolutes in fantasy football, no hard and fast rules that will hold up in lab testing. That’s why I’m more interested in Sir Isaac Bruce than Sir Isaac Newton, more concerned with the stud running back theory than the theory of relativity. And it’s why instead of giving you some kind of chiseled-in-stone laws for fantasy drafting, I’m going to share some simple gut feelings I have about players I like this season.


• QB Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: If you’re the kind of person who plays penny slots in Vegas, this is not the gamble for you. But there are only five QBs I’d trust more than McNabb, who is capable of outproducing all of them (yes, all of them) if he can avoid injury.

• RB Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: Here’s your chance to get this year’s version of Joseph Addai/Laurence Maroney. Even in a timeshare, Peterson will have a breakout role in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy of running to set up the run.

• RB Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants: Listen, he’s not Tiki Barber, but who is? After Jacobs is off the draft board, good luck finding another bona fide feature back out there. And no, I’m not worried about Reuben Droughns – he’s a fullback in a running back’s uniform.

• RB LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: LaMont and I have a love/hate relationship. He burned me big-time last year, but he’s slowly winning me back with a great preseason. I don’t think I can stay mad at him.

• RB Thomas Jones, New York Jets: I thought this was a great offseason move, and his calf injury hasn’t swayed my opinion. Jones is the dependable, every-down back the Jets lacked last year. He’s going to make a fine No. 2 RB.

• QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams: The pretty boys at the top of the QB rankings get all the attention, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bulger as a close second behind Peyton Manning when the season’s over.

• QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos: It’s not often you see a young quarterback surrounded with this much offensive talent and working behind this kind of quality offensive line. Don’t worry about the kid, he’s going to be fine.