Saturday, June 23, 2007

Ailing arms

Got an injured pitcher? Join the club.

Curt Schilling and A.J. Burnett have sore shoulders. Jason Schmidt’s shoulder is even more messed up. Rickety Randy Johnson’s old back problems are flaring up, and even the usually durable Dontrelle Willis and John Lackey are talking about missing starts.

Injuries are virtually unavoidable when it comes to your pitching staff. Whether it’s mildly bad news (Schilling likely just needs to take two aspirin and some cortisone shots) or a disastrous diagnosis (Schmidt is done for the year), these things can be expected when a human being is asked to violently hurl a baseball at a catcher’s mitt a few thousand times a year.

Fantasy players were counting on some serious innings from the starters mentioned above. I had Schmidt pegged as a solid contributor this year – and so did the Los Angeles Dodgers, who gave him $47 million this offseason in exchange for one victory in 2007. Schilling, just a few weeks removed from a near no-hitter, saw a quick decline in velocity and is obviously an injury risk at age 40. Ditto for the 43-year-old Johnson, who’s found the fountain of youth in the Arizona desert but may have to pitch through pain the rest of the year. Burnett’s had injuries before but says he’ll be OK, and the aches experienced by Willis and Lackey seem like nothing, but you never know.

So, if you own one of these pitchers, what’s your backup plan? Of course it depends on the severity of the injury – Schmidt owners have to think about long-term replacements, while Schilling owners might be best served just grabbing a few spot starters. Either way, here are some options:

• You may have an opportunity to get an ailing ace dirt-cheap, especially if the rest of your league is in zombie mode. Chris Carpenter, Rich Harden and Pedro Martinez are all expected back at some point this year, and although all three carry considerable risk they could serve as a serious ace up your sleeve. Carpenter and Martinez probably won’t be useful until late summer, but Harden returns from the DL next week and will initially work out of the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen.

• It’s only a matter of time before the Boston Red Sox call up Jon Lester. The promising young lefty has been taking it slow in the minors as he works his way back from non-Hodgkins lymphoma. The Fenway front office is rightfully concerned about Lester’s long-term health and won’t say if he’ll be coming up to take Schilling’s place, but keep an eye out for his return.

• We do know for certain Chad Billingsley is replacing Schmidt, at least for the time being. The big boy (6-foot, 244 pounds) experienced some ups and downs as a rookie starter last year and had been used out of the bullpen in ‘07, but now he's easing back into a starting role. It'll be slow going, but at the tender age of 22, this youngster has lots of upside.

• Baltimore Orioles rookie Jeremy Guthrie hasn't given up more than three runs in any of his 10 starts this season. He'd probably have more than four wins too if it weren't for the O's sorry offense and bullpen, but it's hard to ignore Guthrie's 2.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP at this point.

• The San Diego Padres' Justin Germano is another unheralded youngster worth checking out. His numbers (5-1, 2.63 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) since taking Clay Hensley's spot in the rotation have been dynamite, so don't hesitate to throw him out there, at least until he cools off.

• There’s also the ageless Kenny Rogers, who looked great in his first start of the year Friday night for the Detroit Tigers after experiencing a blood clot in his left (throwing) shoulder. It seems he's fully recovered, so we pretty much know what to expect from Rogers – namely a half-decent ERA and a good shot at some Ws. Cameramen beware.

• Josh Johnson just came off the DL and promptly had his world rocked by the Chicago White Sox in his first game back. Your leaguemates may have brushed him off, but the right-hander did go 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA last year for the Florida Marlins. Give him a chance.

Saturday, June 09, 2007

Countdown to lift-off

T-minus 30 minutes until the Rocket makes his 2007 debut. What can we expect of Roger Clemens this year?

As I've mentioned earlier, I think Clemens will be a top-tier AL pitcher this season, but not a Cy Young candidate. The poor Pittsburgh Pirates should offer a an easy warm-up test for him today though (he was 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA against them last year, and is 5-1 all-time vs. Pittsburgh), even if he only lasts five or six innings.

If you've got Clemens on your team, and you don't have a glaring need for him right now, he might make good trade bait if he has an outstanding debut. Again, it's all about selling high and getting the most bang for your buck.

Price is right, and other young arms

It's understandable if you didn't catch baseball's amateur draft on ESPN2 this week. Not everyone is lucky enough to have absolutely nothing better to do at 2 p.m. on a Thursday.

I, on the other hand, watched most of the first round, and at the risk of giving away too many inside secrets to my fantasy competitors, there's one name I can share with you: David Price, the No. 1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Price, a 21-year-old left-hander from Vanderbilt, is already a polished product who could be on the fast track to the majors. Of course, just because he was the top player taken doesn't make him can't-miss - anybody still waiting for Paul Wilson's career to pan out? - but Price is a guy to at least file away in your memory banks.


It's always a good idea for fantasy players to familiarize themselves with some of the game's top prospects, even if you're not in a keeper league.

That kind of knowledge can put you ahead of the curve when rookie talent enters your league, and while not every call-up goes on to immediate superstardom, you'll at least have a chance at finding a rare gem who makes an impact.

Let's check in with some pitching prospects whom you may or may not already know:

• Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds: Cincy has been cautious bringing along Bailey, the organization's top prospect in each of the past three seasons and one of the game's elite young arms. The 21-year-old pitched five solid innings in his major-league debut Friday night, and while he's still working on his command, his excellent fastball and curve make him someone who can certainly contribute this season and be a stud by next year.

• Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: Lincecum, a 2006 first-rounder, forced his way into the Giants' starting rotation and hasn't looked back. The righty has had a couple shaky outings, but has also held his own against Roy Oswalt twice and dominated at times. If he's not already owned in your league, there's something wrong.

• Phil Hughes, New York Yankees: Hughes already made a splash this year with a near-no-hitter that was ruined by a hamstring pull. Of course, every prospect gets magnified in the fish bowl that is New York, but Hughes is the real deal. The only concern is injuries - he was already going to be sidelined until later this summer, then he rolled an ankle last week while rehabbing. But until we hear otherwise, Hughes could still be the kind of late-season difference-maker you'll want to keep in your DL spot if you can afford to do so.

• Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: Gallardo has a live arm and a four-pitch repertoire. He's currently tearing his way through Triple-A. He led all minor-league pitchers in strikeouts in 2006 (188 in 155 innings) and seems to be knocking on the door of the big leagues. The Brew Crew don't have a spot in their rotation or a pressing need for him right now, but run to the waiver wire whenever this young man gets called up.

Friday, June 08, 2007

"D'oh!"

You might end making an annoyed grunt of your own if you haven't already added Homer Bailey.

Bailey, the Reds' top prospect the past three seasons, is set to make his major league debut Friday against the Cleveland Indians. In case you don't already know, Bailey is considered one of the premier pitching prospects in the game, on par with Phil Hughes and Tim Lincecum. The 6-foor-4, 204-pounder can touch the high-90s with his fastball, and he's 6-1 with a 2.31 ERA at Triple-A Louisville.

But before you get too excited, realize the stars aren't quite aligned for Bailey to be an immediate success. While Cincinnati's taken a very careful approach bringing Bailey through its system, this was because they don't exactly have a good track record of success with young arms. Bailey's easily one of the most anticipated Reds rookies in recent memory, so he'll be feeling a lot of pressure to be the savior of an extremely disappointing team that isn't very good. On top of all that, his first big league start comes against one of the premier offenses from the superior American League. That's an awful lot of strikes against the kid.

That being said, Bailey is still someone worth picking up, and that doesn't just go for keeper leagues. If you can get your hands on him, I'd probably keep him on the bench for now and see how this first game goes. He's got the goods to contribute, and the Reds have said he'll get at least another start regardless of how the first one goes. So let's see what he's got.

I'll have a little more on Bailey and some other pitching prospects in my next post.

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Closing thoughts

A copule random notes on some closers:

Remember in the old days how we'd have to try to get inside every manager's head when it came to players' roles? Friday we got two rare "official" announcments regarding closer situations: Matt Capps is replacing Salomon Torres in Pittsburgh, while the recently acquired Armando Benitez will NOT close in Florida, at least for now.

It's not every day we're actually told how these bullpens are going to shape up, so let's take the info and run with it. Torres has been on a short leash since spring training, and the smart money was on young Capps taking over sooner rather than later. Now that day has come, and it's safe to drop Torres and pick up Capps if he's still out there. Capps has the potential to put together the kind of fine season Mike Gonzalez has last season - there won't be a ton of save chances, but he'll get the job done and keep his ratios low.

As for Benitez, let's face it, he hasn't exactly been a fantasy gem for some time now, especially this year. But the rumors of him going back to the Marlins have been floating around since camp, and they were intriguing for two reasons: Benitez wanted to return to Florida, and he had one of his best seasons there, in 2004 (47 saves, 1.29 ERA). Closer-of-the-week Kevin Gregg is keeping his job for now, and he's been fine. But Benitez is a logical choice to replace him should he falter, so you've got to keep close tabs on this situation. Henry Owens is another possibility to take back the job now that he's off the DL.

If you're wondering, Brad Hennessy is probably the Giants' No. 1 saves guy for now ... not exactly someone you run to the computer to add, but it can't help to take a look if you need saves.

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Undroppables

They are known as the Undroppables.

Not to be confused with the untouchables – either the outcasts of Indian society or the pretty decent Kevin Costner flick – the Undroppables are the fantasy players who can’t be touched. Most leagues impose a short list of guys who cannot be released under just about any circumstances in the name of fair play. Makes sense. We wouldn't want to see some last-place team cutting ties with Alex Rodriguez just so a partner in crime can pick him up.

Another positive about the undroppables list is it forces owners to curb their George Steinbrenner tendencies and practice patience. No matter how much David Wright's homerless April hurt you, and regardless of how many sleepless nights you've had thinking about Alfonso Soriano's nine RBIs, you have no recourse but to stick with those two since they're on just about every undroppable list.

The idea is a good one, but it can only take you so far. Usually there are about 20 or fewer undroppables, which leaves about 90 percent of your roster up in the air. And that's great, because it creates lots of room for uncertainty and strategy we love in fantasy sports. It also leaves the door open for some really bad decisions. But that's where I come in.

Here are a few players who, while perhaps not officially undroppable, should be considered as such:

• Mariano Rivera: There was a stretch earlier this year when The Sandman's skills seemed to have eroded. His two blown saves and bloated ERA surely weren't what we signed up for when drafting the greatest closer ever. But it's hard to justify cutting bait on a guy who has been so dominant for so long, especially when others are banking on Joe Borowski and Octavio Dotel for saves. Show Mo some love.

• Carlos Delgado/Paul Konerko: These two are kind of NL and AL versions of one another. Both could hit 30 homers in their sleep. Both ended April hitting under .200. While neither will win a batting title, the power potential is still there. They've gone deep a combined 211 times the past three seasons. And isn't that why you drafted them in the first place?

• Richie Sexson: If you thought the previous two sluggers were having aggravating seasons, you obviously don't own Mr. Richmond Lockwood Sexson, a guy who can't even see the Mendoza Line from where he's sitting (.180 through Friday). The funny part is, you suffer through Sexson's ups and downs all year, then you look back and realize he had the most frustrating 35-homer, 100-RBI season ever.

• Scott Kazmir: Young Kaz hasn't quite been the emerging stud we expected this season. He's throwing way too many pitches because, he says, his mechanics are off, and he hasn't won at home since last July. The good news is that first part can be corrected easily enough. As for the second part, he does pitch for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Don't hold it against him. The Ks will come.

• Bobby Abreu: He hasn't been hitting much lately, but more disturbingly, he hasn't been walking. Expect that to change soon (career .409 on-base percentage). While he may never be a 30-30 guy again (can a Home Run Derby really mess you up that much?), he can still run a little, and he'll get lots of RBI chances wherever he hits in that New York Yankees lineup.

P.S. After I wrote this, Delgado hit two bombs, Sexson hit a three-run shot, and Abreu was 1-for-5 with a game-ending strikeout representing the tying run in a 3-1 loss. Two out of three ain't bad, I guess.

Friday, May 11, 2007

Blast off

Can a 44-year-old guy save your fantasy team?

Nope, it’s not Julio Franco – he’s 48, and he won’t help that much. I’m talking about Roger Clemens, the player whose comeback has New York Yankees fans and fantasy players alike buzzing. It’s probably too late to pick him up off the waiver wire in just about every league, but those who have him are wondering if the Rocket is their lift ticket to a championship.

First of all, if you had the foresight to draft Clemens, I commend you. It looks like your gamble paid off - unless of course you’re in a National League-only format and were hoping he’d stay close to home with the Houston Astros. Oops.

So what’s a safe projection for Clemens this year? It’s important to remember not only is he pitching an abbreviated season, he’s also switching back to the considerably tougher American League. If he returns in early June as expected and stays healthy, he’ll make roughly 22-25 starts and could win about half of them if all goes well.

There’s no way Clemens will approach his sub-3.00 ERAs of the past few seasons with Houston. The lineups of the AL East are simply too challenging, no matter how many Cy Young awards in your trophy case. Don’t forget Clemens, in his first stint with the Bombers from 1999-2003, averaged about a 4.00 ERA, and that was back when he was still a 30-something.

The run support in the Bronx will certainly be better than he received in Houston, though. And when we last saw him in the big leagues in 2006 he showed he could still overpower hitters (8.10 strikeouts per nine innings) and possessed good control (3.52 strikeout-to-walk ratio). The odds are Clemens, even at his advanced age, will still be an above-average AL pitcher.

But will he be a difference-maker? I suppose it depends on the rest of your staff. If you’re OK in the arms department, now might be a good time to dangle Clemens out there as trade bait and see what kind of offers you get. He’s probably a bit overvalued based on his reputation, but now that we know for sure he’ll be pitching 2007, you may find a trade partner who’s expecting the Rocket to blast to the past.

If you can’t get your hands on Clemens, here are some other helpful starters who may be available:

• James Shields might be that elusive second starter the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have yearned for. The unheralded youngster was fourth in the AL in strikeouts (49) through Thursday and is coming off a nine-inning scoreless outing against the Baltimore Orioles.

• Fausto Carmona failed in his stint as a reliever for the Cleveland Indians last year, but don’t let that sour your opinion. The 23-year-old’s posted good numbers (3-1, 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) filling in for injured Tribe starters, first Cliff Lee and now Jake Westbrook, who’s on the disabled list for three to five weeks.

• Tom Gorzelanny is the Pittsburgh Pirates’ other talented, young left-hander, but he’s been much better than “ace” Zach Duke. His stats are quite respectable (4-2, 2.72 ERA, 29/13 K/BB ratio), so don’t hesitate to give him a try.