Don't outsmart yourself

Some people are blessed with book smarts. They can recite the Preamble to the Constitution or explain the process of photosynthesis. They've spent half their lives studying, computing, analyzing, and they apply those same skills when it comes to assembling their fantasy teams on draft day.

Then you have folks with street smarts. They might not have made the honor roll, but they can find their way around a big city or fix a leaky faucet by following their gut instincts. And when they build a fantasy roster, it's not so much about crunching the numbers but using common sense and making reasonable assumptions.

The key to fantasy success is straddling the line between book smarts and street smarts. Analyzing a player's OPS history or ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is wise, but what good is that if you forget to start Jake Peavy every fifth day or drop David Ortiz because he started off hitting below .100?

It is possible to out-think yourself in this game. If you were smart enough to draft the following slow-starting players, I ask that you listen to reason and hold onto them:

g The Detroit Tigers were the joke of the league the first couple weeks of the season, and pricey acquisition Miguel Cabrera was the punchline. Some people were even throwing around the world "bust," given the small fortune the Tigers (and many fantasy owners) paid for him.

Now hear this: Cabrera will still hit .300 and drive in at least 100 runs this year, guaranteed. He's hit .320 or better the past three seasons and averaged 116 RBIs. You think he's washed up at age 25? Cabrera already started to awake from his slumber earlier this week. Please leave him in your lineup every day.

g Placido Polanco is yet another Tiger who looks more like a housecat. He hadn't even reached half of last year's .341 average at last look, but some back tightness has also been bothering him. I believe things are bound to change soon for the career .304 hitter. The perfect storm of injuries, slumps and cold weather have hurt all Detroit's hitters, but once Curtis Granderson gets back and the temperature rises, I expect them all to pick it up, Polanco included.

g C.C. Sabathia's been downright dreadful, but I'm not pressing my panic button. Maybe his contract situation is getting to him, and maybe he reached his ceiling with last year's Cy Young campaign, but he still has the tools to be a top-tier fantasy starter as in years past. His struggles seem to be more of the mental variety, so someone just needs to sit down with Carsten Charles and get this thing figured out.

g Insiders figured young speedster Jacoby Ellsbury would be the unquestioned starter in center field for the Boston Red Sox, but that hasn't happened yet, as he's split time with Coco Crisp. I still believe the Sox will trade Crisp, though, and when they do, Ellsbury will be playing full time and will steal at least 40 bases. Write it down.

g The New York Yankees' Robinson Cano hasn't resembled the elite second baseman most pegged him to be, but an eighth-inning, go-ahead home run while pinch-hitting against the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this week may have broken him out of his funk. He started slow last year too but finished strong (.274 before the All-Star break, .343 after). Those who've predicted batting titles for Cano still might know what they're talking about.