It's not uncommon for fantasy players to favor hitters over pitchers when assembling their teams, and rightfully so.
The pitching ranks are in constant flux, with starters always tearing up their shoulders and decimating their elbows. One false move and John Lackey (strained triceps) can go from a top-10 preseason pick to a draft-day afterthought. It's a cruel game we've chosen to play, this fantasy baseball.
That being said, even the most risk-averse owner still needs a go-to pitcher in order to be competitive. There are about 10 guys who are capable of truly special numbers in the big four categories (wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP), creating the potential for every team in most standard mixed leagues to have an ace of its own. That means you can be cut off from the big guns at the top but still find a comparable starter to build your staff around.
The trick, of course, is trying to get a few of those top-10 guys and backing them up with some real gems. Easier said than done, but here's a guide to help you sift through your options:
1. Johan Santana, New York Mets: The perfect storm of a better lineup, better pitcher's park and the switch to the National League could produce his best season yet. And that's saying something.
2. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres: Last year, he became the first NL pitcher to win the Triple Crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) since Randy Johnson in 2002, and he could do it again this year.
3. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks: Master of the sinkerball is capable of posting Cy Young-caliber numbers for a third straight season.
4. Erik Bedard, Seattle Mariners: Blossoming ace may be the American League's best after Santana's relocation. Win total should increase with a better bullpen behind him.
5. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians: It's a contract year for the big fella, whose ERA and WHIP have decreased the past three seasons while his strikeout totals have climbed.
6. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks: His first half last year (10-3, 2.30 ERA) was way better than his second half (5-6, 4.15), but I see those few tough months as a hiccup in a pretty consistent career. He'll shine in his return to the NL.
7. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers: If some pitchers have electric stuff, Verlander's is nuclear. A ceiling of 200 strikeouts and 20 wins isn't out of the question.
8. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies: Has demonstrated great control for a power pitcher - only 43 walks in 183 1/3 innings last year. That'll help your WHIP a bit.
9. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox: Worries about his stiff back are negated by the memories of an awesome 2007. Just keep the ball in the park again, bud.
10. Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds: Doesn't get the pub like some other aces, but he's been a secret weapon for smart fantasy gamers for a few seasons now. Fifteen wins, 200 Ks are almost a given.
11. Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros: Strikeout totals have been plummeting for four years now (206-184-166-154), which is about the only thing keeping him from being a fantasy No. 1.
12. Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays: Much like Oswalt, he won't help you a whole lot in the K category but offers good ratios and the potential for a bunch of wins.
13. John Smoltz, Atlanta Braves: At age 40, his stat lines could belong to men half his age. Stop waiting for him to break down and get in on the action.
14. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox: He didn't quite take America by storm last year, and we never did see that gyroball, but Dice-K did fan almost a batter per inning. He should be even better with a full MLB season under his belt.
15. Scott Kazmir, Rays: Sure, the elbow strain is a concern, but you can sense greatness in the young lefty. Six hundred strikeouts at age 24 will do that.
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