Saturday, September 29, 2007

Week 3: Start/Sit

START

Still waiting for Frank Gore to break out? Here's betting he does it against the Seahawks, who he gashed for 356 yards in two games last year.

I'm starting just about all my Giants and Eagles ... that includes Brian Westbrook (until somebody tells me he's declared out), Kevin Curtis (he's not catching three TDs again in a game this year though, hate to break it to you) and Derrick Ward (but Brandon Jacobs will return soon, so be warned).

Marshawn Lynch should be in there against a Jets team that made Ronnie Brown look like Jim Brown last week. Plus, he's really the only option the Bills have with Trent Edwards taking over handoff duties from J.P. Losman this week.

Sure, Larry Fitzgerald faces a tough Steelers D, but the Cardinals will be without his buddy, Anquan Boldin, so Kurt Warner and/or Matt Leinart will be looking to Fitz often.


SIT

Adrian Peterson has been great for the Vikings, but Chester Taylor is supposedly getting healthier, and Minnesota says it's committed to splitting carries between the veteran and the rookie. Plus, the Packers haven't allowed a rushing TD yet.

Brandon Jackson has been hampered by a strained shin (how does that happen, exactly?) and probably wouldn't find much room to run against the Vikings anyway.

The rejuvenated Edgerrin James has another challenge this week against the Steelers, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since ... Edgerrin James, in 2005. He's not hitting the century mark this time.

Alex Smith hasn't taken the next step this season. Even though the matchup with Seattle is enticing, I'm not starting him unless I'm really strapped.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 4

RB Brian Leonard, St. Louis Rams: The rookie is an obvious choice as he fills in for Steven Jackson this week against Dallas (and probably a few weeks more after that). Assuming he wasn't handcuffed by Jackson owners protecting their No. 1 pick, you need to go out and get Leonard now. If you've been privy to any of his highlights from Rutgers (see video below), you know he can play a little ball. I'm excited to see what the kid can do as a pro. FIVE STARS (OUT OF FIVE)



WR Dwyane Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs: I like what I've seen out of this cat so far. He's got two TDs already (Larry Johnson has zero) and he might be K.C.'s most reliable receiving option not named Tony Gonzalez. FOUR STARS

RB Aaron Stecker, New Orleans Saints: Now that Deuce McAllister is sidelined for '07, a lot of people don't believe Reggie Bush can carry the load by himself. I'm one of those people - although I don't think Stecker's going to just automatically match Deuce's numbers, either. He'll get a few TDs though - assuming Sean Payton's visor stops cutting off the circulation to his brain - which means Stecker deserves to be owned. THREE STARS

RB Ron Dayne, Houston Texans: Counting on Dayne is always a risky proposition, but if you happen to get inside information that Ahman Green is too hurt to play this Sunday against the Falcons and Dayne isn't, this risk will pay off. THREE STARS

RB Kenny Watson, Cincinnati Bengals: If Rudi Johnson's hamstring injury turns out to be serious, Watson would be the guy in Cincy with Chris Perry and Kenny Irons out of the picture for the time being. I wouldn't use him this week against the Patriots though - heck, I might not use Rudi even if he was healthy against the Pats. THREE STARS

QB Brian Griese, Chicago Bears: The nine-year vet gets the call this week, replacing Rex Grossman as the Bears' starter. We already know what Griese's capable of as a starter - "capable" is a good way to describe him, actually - and he certainly couldn't be any worse than Grossman. He's not a terrible spot starter, especially this week against Detroit. THREE STARS

RB Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I really hope Graham saved the footballs from his first two NFL TDs last week, because I honestly don't think a lot more are coming any time soon, no matter what Jon Gruden says. Even if Cadillac Williams is sidelined by sore ribs, don't you think Michael Pittman (5,101 rushing yards, 3,287 receiving yards and 29 total TDs in his career) is probably a smarter fantasy addition than Graham? I do. ONE STAR

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

2008 baseball rankings

It's never too early to start looking ahead to 2008. Take the Pittsburgh Pirates: They've been doing that since, oh, Opening Day 2007.

Whether you were a fantasy baseball champ, a serious contender or a nonfactor like the real-life Pirates this year, you should already be thinking about next season. That's why I went ahead and did some extra-early fantasy rankings for '08 mixed leagues and keeper leagues.

Remember, a lot can change between now and then - injuries, free-agent signings, massive steroids scandals, the melting of the polar ice caps and so on. Don't start filling up my inbox with angry e-mails next April if Alex Rodriguez slips on a banana peel and tears his ACL or signs a $300 million contract with the Yomiuri Giants. This is just a helpful guide to get you started, and it's not etched in stone.

1. 3B A-Rod: Whether he stays in New York or uses that opt-out clause to go somewhere else for big money, he's still the most valuable fantasy commodity.

2. 3B Miguel Cabrera: He's already working on a Hall of Fame resume at age 24. A move to first base is coming if his waistline keeps
expanding - but I like him for who he is inside.

3. 1B Albert Pujols: I fully expect him to revert to his incredible old self in '08. He's too gifted not to, right?

4. SS Hanley Ramirez: Anybody who's capable of 30 homers AND 50 steals can play on my team anytime.

5. 3B David Wright: Just pencil him in for a .300 average, 40 doubles, 20 steals, 100 RBIs ... and about a million marriage proposals.

6. SP Johan Santana: There are few sure things among pitchers, but he's one. And there's a good chance he'll be pitching for a new team at some point in '08 - an enticing thought should he end up on a big-budget contender.

7. SS Jose Reyes: This year's drop-offs in average, homers and RBIs are cause for concern, but his wheels (78 steals through Tuesday) still look fine to me.

8. 2B Chase Utley: The Philadelphia Phillies were smart to lock him up early. He's capable of MVP numbers at a relatively thin position.

9. OF Matt Holliday: He's an offensive force, and as far as I know he'll still be playing his home games in Coors Field next season.

10. 1B Ryan Howard: His skyrocketing strikeout totals are the only thing keeping him from astronomical offensive numbers. He's still pretty good though.

11. OF Alfonso Soriano: A quad injury robbed him of a decent chunk of his '07 season - and he still managed 31 homers, 18 steals (and counting) for Lou Piniella's crew.

12. SS Jimmy Rollins: He's improved his power numbers without sacrificing any of his speed, and you can't pick up 30/30 men at Wal-Mart.

13. 1B Prince Fielder: Write this one down: Cecil's son will hit more career homers than his old man.

14. OF Carl Crawford: He's in his prime, there's talent around him for a change, and he contributes across the board statistically.

15. SP Jake Peavy: It's rare that I'll spend a top pick on a pitcher; it's also rare that a guy will contend for a pitching triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA).

The next 10: Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, David Ortiz, Justin Morneau, B.J. Upton, Ichiro Suzuki, Brandon Phillips, Mark Teixeira

Diagnosis NFL

They're not chanting "Deuce," they're yelling "Boooooo!"

That's the sound Deuce McAllister owners are making after hearing the bad news that their guy could be out for the remainder of the season. McAllister, the New Orleans Saints' power back, reportedly tore his ACL in Monday night's loss to the Tennessee Titans.

That's Deuce's second ACL tear in three years, for those scoring at home, and although he wasn't enjoying the kind of success we expected (24 carries, 92 yards, zero TDs), it's still a big blow to our fantasy plans.

Since Reggie Bush is no doubt already spoken for in your league - and stands to receive a lot more touches in the coming weeks - you may want to take a look at Aaron Stecker, the man who will replace McAllister in the Saints' lineup. Stecker, however, has never really been a feature back in his eight-year NFL career, and given how clueless the Saints' offense has looked so far, I'd keep your expectations to a minimum.

As most of you are well aware, McAllister isn't the only wounded fantasy star, so let's play doctor (no, not in that way) and check out some other injury situations:

• The St. Louis Rams are falling apart. Marc Bulger is playing hurt, and Steven Jackson has already been ruled out for Week 4 - and possibly longer - with a partially torn groin.

Bulger's two broken ribs and sore knee explain some of the Rams' offensive shortcomings so far, but it looks like he's going to play through the pain. With Jackson out, Bulger might just end up throwing it more, so I'm not much more concerned about him than I already was.

I am more concerned about Jackson, who hasn't been the yardage monster we hoped so far. The obvious remedy is to grab rookie Brian Leonard, last seen running over, around and through opponents at Rutgers. Leonard will move from his fullback position to starting tailback and stands to see a lot of action in Jackson's absence. Add him now.

• Brian Westbrook is messing with us again. The Philadelphia Eagles tailback has an abdominal strain, but don't plant him on your bench unless you officially hear the magic word: "out."

You may recall the perpetually injured Westbrook was questionable for last Sunday's game with a knee ailment, then busted out 110 rushing yards, 111 receiving yards and three total touchdowns. The lesson is to never sit Westbrook unless you know for sure the Eagles are doing the same.

• San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is out for at least a few weeks with a sprained MCL. He's too talented to drop, but you'll need a capable fill-in for the time being.

• Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson has been ruled out for Week 4, so you'll have to look elsewhere again. And running back Ahman Green is dealing with a sore knee, so if he can't go, Ron Dayne might be worth a start agains the Atlanta Falcons.

• Jake Delhomme is day-to-day with a bum elbow. The Carolina Panthers would turn to David Carr in his absence this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I'd hold off on starting him unless you're really in a pinch. Steve Smith owners should brace themselves for a bumpy ride.

• Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward is doubtful for Week 4 with a sprained knee. Nate Washington would get the start in his place against the Arizona Cardinals, but I'd be more excited about the opportunities it opens up for Santonio Holmes.

Monday, September 24, 2007

Week 3 Recap - Pt. 2

PACKERS 31, CHARGERS 24: How about that Brett Favre kid, huh? Still slingin' it. Congrats on the all-time TD record. Hope he gets as much pub in the next week or two when he breaks the all-time interceptions thrown record too.

So much for the whole DeShawn Wynn thing, as he only got two carries for nine yards. Brandon Jackson didn't fare much better (six carries, 22 yards), but he did find the end zone late.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are crumbling before our eyes. Another sub-par (by his standards) day for LaDainian Tomlinson (62 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards and 1 TD catch) as the Pack forced the Bolts to throw. Philip River tossed three TDs - including one to Vincent Jackson (who finally justified the hype). Antonio Gates was a man-beast again (11 catches, 113 yards). Never sit him.

RAVENS 26, CARDINALS 23: Lots of field goals, and a Kurt Warner sighting! Matt Leinart had to be pulled, so old man Warner came to the rescue and threw two TDs to Anquan Boldin late to make it interesting. Leinart hasn't lost his job, though.

It's almost unfair that if you have the Ravens defense, you also get rookie return man Yamon Figurs, who blazed a 4.29 in the 40 at the NFL combine. There will be many more of these.

COLTS 30, TEXANS 24: Houston was relying on Samkon Gado and Andre Davis at one point after all the injuries in this one. Andre Johnson was out as expected, and Ahman Green went out with an injury to his troublesome knee. Hard to get excited about those backups when it comes to fantasy.

Nothing crazy on the Colts' side. Joseph Addai scored twice, and Dallas Clark had a TD catch.

CHIEFS 13, VIKINGS 10: Another quiet day for Larry Johnson, which wasn't much of a surprise if you've been paying attention. You know it's eating him up inside, but I don't see the pattern changing until probably Week 6 against the Bengals.

Rookie WR Dwayne Bowe, star of HBO's Hard Knocks, was a bright spot for the Chiefs offense, grabbing his second TD of the season. He's somebody worth a look.

Another rookie, Adrian Peterson, has already arrived as a star: 102 yards rushing, 48 receiving and a score. Chester Taylor, who didn't play again, is already in the rear-view mirror.

JAGUARS 23, BRONCOS 14: Told you to grab Brandon Marshall (133 yards) - now it's probably too late. Travis Henry salvaged a mediocre day with a touchdown. The Jags' Fred Taylor was just OK (84 yards), and Maurice Jones-Drew is looking more and more like a one-year wonder. Greg Jones, of all people, got the Jags' rushing TD.

SEAHAWKS 24, BENGALS 21: All the usual offensive stars were productive in this game, with one exception: Rudi Johnson mustered just nine yards on 17 carries (an unfathomable 0.5 yards a carry) before leaving with a hamstring injury. Kenny Watson was OK filling in (nine rushes, 60 yards, TD), but Rudi says he'll be back in the lineup next week. Problem is, he's facing the Patriots, so I'm looking for other options anyway.

PANTHERS 27, FALCONS 20: Give Joey Harrington credit, he had a really nice day (361 yards, two TDs, no INTs), with Roddy White (127 yards, TD) serving as his main target. Still not buying it, but he deserves credit nonetheless. And the Falcons still have no semblance of a running game, so Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood should still be rotting on your bench.

As for the Panthers, the big news is resurgent Jake Delhomme zinged two TDs before leaving with an elbow injury. Keep an eye on that. I had David Carr tabbed as a deep sleeper with the thought Delhomme might falter, but the veteran has been great, and it'd be a shame if an injury took him out. Anyway, the reason either QB would have value is because of Steve Smith, even though Smith had a mind-boggling one catch for 10 yards Sunday.

And about that Panthers running tandem, DeShaun Foster had the breakout game this time (122 yards, one TD rushing, one receiving), but watch, DeAngelo Williams will probably do the same thing in the next week or two.

COWBOYS 34, BEARS 10: Big games for Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber in what was supposed to be a tough matchup. I'm not so scared of that Chicago D anymore, especially with their players dropping like flies. That's why I don't go reaching for defenses in a draft, injuries have a way of leveling the playing field over the course of a season. They're still a top unit, but it's hard to be so dominant from year to year.

And Julius Jones, thanks for playing, but I've seen just about enough from you.

Week 3 Recap - Pt. 1

Another wild NFL Sunday, and if you're anything like me, you can't get this damn iPod commercial out of your head:





Anyway, maybe a lengthy blogging will do the trick ...


EAGLES 56, LIONS 21: I knew Donovan McNabb couldn't look so bad for so long. That's the kind of statement game (381 yards, four TDs) that should put your mind at ease if McNabb's your starter. ... Now, Kevin Curtis' 221 yards and three TDs, I'm not sure how to react to that. I just dropped him in one of my leagues, too. He'll still be a useful fantasy player, but I don't see many more three-TD games in the near future.

Sunday was pretty much an encapsulation of Brian Westbrook's career: questionable going into the game with a bad knee, leaves the game with a rib injury, and in between somehow finds a way to get 100 rushing yards AND 100 receiving yards. Drives you crazy, but unless they officially rule him out of a game, you start him.

On the Detroit side, Jon Kitna's still airing it out, with Roy Williams (201 yards, TD) the main target and Shaun McDonald (76 yards, TD) still making an impact. Calvin Johnson left with a bad back, so watch that. And there was even a Kevin Jones sighting! He scored on his first carry but didn't do much else as Detroit was trying to play catch-up. Tatum Bell's days may be numbered though.




Oh, and one more thing .... I don't have a problem with celebrating your franchise's past, but let's not see these unis again, OK? This is the NFL, not the World League.

JETS 31, DOLPHINS 28: This one played out just how I envisioned it. Laveranues Coles caught a TD just like he always does against Miami. Thomas Jones (110 yards) made a contribution, as did Chris Chambers (101 yards). Trent Green and Chad Pennington were serviceable. Ronnie Brown was the biggest surprise - I figured he'd show a pulse, but 112 rushing, 109 receiving and three scores? Suddenly I'm feeling a lot better about him now if he's on my team.

STEELERS 37, 49ERS 16: I think I've got this Mike Tomlin guy's M.O. figured out: Run on offense, stop the run on defense. Willie Parker (133 yards) is going to be a workhorse all year, and opposing RBs are going to have a rough time against these Stillers. Ask Frank Gore (14 carries, 39 yards).

A bunch of guys got beat up in this one: Gore had to have X-rays on that broken hand of his (they were negative), Hines Ward left with a "bone bruise" on his leg, and Vernon Davis left with a sprained right knee. You'll want to check on each of those injuries during the week.

PATRIOTS 38, BILLS 7: You mean to tell me the Pats couldn't give up one lousy garbage TD in this one, just to make the final score of all three of their games so far 38-14? How cool would that have been?

Anyway, regarding Randy Moss: I'm a believer. Start him until further notice. Also, good to see Laurence Maroney (103 yards) and Ben Watson (TD) getting involved. Sammy Morris (46 yards, TD) refuses to go away.

On the Buffalo side, things aren't so happy-go-lucky. JP Losman left with a "significant" knee injury; I know you probably weren't starting him (certainly not in this game, I hope!), but you could make a case for drafting him as your backup. Now you might as well look elsewhere ... ditto for Lee Evans (one catch, seven yards), unless he has some crazy chemistry with rookie backup Trent Edwards we don't know about. Somebody put that guy's face on a milk carton or something ... Peerless Price is outperforming him for cryin' out loud!

BUCS 24, RAMS 3: Who's Earnest Graham (eight carries, 75 yards, two rushing TDs)? Well, he used to be known as "Mr. August" in Bucs-land for being a training-camp hero who never really did much when the real games actually started. But before you go all Buc-wild (get it?) and pick him up, realize he didn't really do his damage until Cadillac Williams was on the sidelines in the fourth quarter after he had already a) scored a TD, b) fumbled and c) hurt his sore ribs. I don't think Caddy's in a lot of danger, even though Jon Gruden says he wants to get Graham more involved. He said the same thing about Mark Clayton, too.

The Rams, meanwhile, are falling apart on the offensive line, and it's killing Marc Bulger (116 yards, 0 TDs, three INTs) and everyone else along with him. Steven Jackson cracked 100 yards for the first time but it didn't come easy. I'm officially worried.

GIANTS 24, REDSKINS 17: A lot of just-OK offensive performances all around, so I'll focus on the RB situations. Derrick Ward (94 yards) is still hanging in there for the G-Men with Brandon Jacobs on the sidelines. Reuben Droughns scored twice in the second half after being inserted with the Giants on the goal line, but I still don't think he'll get the consistent touches to warrant a starting spot at this point. For the Skins, Clinton Portis was the go-to guy as expected, but Ladell Betts has really dropped off (seven carries, nine yards; one catch, 13 yards) from what looked like an equal timeshare. Betts had a chance to tie the game up at the end but couldn't cross the goal line. I'm not starting him again unless I have to, or unless the matchup really floats my boat.

RAIDERS 26, BROWNS 24: Derek Anderson, I hope you enjoyed that ride on Cloud 9. Nothing like a devastating loss to the Raiders to bring you back down here with us mortals. At least it was nice to see the old Jamal Lewis (15 carries, 56 yards) we know and love. LaMont Jordan, meanwhile, deserves some love (121 yards, TD). ... And it looks like we've got a QB controversy brewing in Oakland between Josh McCown, who got hurt again, and Daunte Culpepper, who rallied the troops. I'll let somebody else fight for those scraps, thanks.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Sit/start: Week 3

START

Matt Hasselbeck and Deion Branch need to be in your lineup against Cincinnati after seeing what the Browns did to the Bengals last week.

Jason Campbell hasn't been much more than a "keep-you-in-the-game" QB, but he's gaining confidence, has built a rapport with TE Chris Cooley, has some other vertical weapons in Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El and best of all, he's facing a Giants secondary that couldn't stop a Pee Wee team. Start Campbell if you're strapped at QB.

Braylon Edwards had the kind of game (career-high 146 yards, two TDs) many think he's capable of on a more consistent basis. Of course, that hinges on having a consistent QB. Not sure if Derek Anderson is that guy, but he's flying high right now and the Browns face a struggling Oakland secondary.

Laveranues Coles has a history of hurting the Dolphins, scoring nine TDs in 11 career games against Miami. It also looks like he might get buddy Chad Pennington back this week, too.

Thomas Jones is another Jet to start this week. He's been just average so far, but the Dolphins are ranked next to last in run defense and pale in comparison to Jones' first two opponents, the Ravens and Pats. This is the week to start collecting on your investment.

SIT

Julius Jones just hasn't stepped it up as Marion Barber encroaches on his job. He's only a fringe fantasy starter at this point, and I certainly don't expect much against Chicago.

Ronnie Brown has been equally disappointing. He does face the Jets, who have been below-average against the run and against whom he had two of his best games last year ... but I don't know if I'm willing to risk another dismal 30-yard effort unless I'm really in a pinch.

Matt Leinart hasn't been anything special so far, and Baltimore's defense should neutralize his passing targets this week. Don't expect much.

Lee Evans has been MIA so far (four catches for 22 yards). He was blanketed by New England last year in their two matchups (3 for 35 yards). Do you need any more evidence to bench him this week?

Donte' Stallworth has been a similar WR bust through two games (three catches, 38 yards) and not the game-breaker many envisioned. He's always been inconsistent, however, and one of these days, New England is going to decide to feature him, and he'll go off. But I'm not willing to take that risk until I see some results.