Monday, November 19, 2007

Week 11 recap - Pt. 1

PATRIOTS 56, BILLS 10: Is anybody really surprised by this at this point in the season? The Pats are pretty much unstoppable. Witness Tom Brady's five TDs, four to Randy Moss ... they didn't even need to run the ball much, although Laurence Maroney scored his first TD of the season. Amazing. And you were probably smart enough to sit your Bills, especially with Marshawn Lynch out. Right?

COWBOYS 28, REDSKINS 23: Speaking of amazing QB-WR connections, Tony Romo hit Terrell Owens for all four of the Boys' scores. In one league I actually played against a dude who had both Romo and Owens in his lineup. Yeah, it hurt as much as you imagine. I did have Owens in another league, so that helped soften the blow. ... Santana Moss (nine catches, 121 yards, TD) and Chris Cooley (eight catches, 89 yards, TD) put together nice games for the Skins. The RBs on both sides aren't worth mentioning.

VIKINGS 29, RAIDERS 22: Hope you took my advice and started Chester Taylor. Three TDs and 169 yards for the guy ... think he's been secretly seething about this whole Adrian Peterson thing this season? No word on Peterson's status right now, so Taylor looks like a decent start against the Giants next week, though he probably won't have quite as much room to run.

GIANTS 16, LIONS 10: Nobody really had a standout game in this one, outside of Roy Williams and Shaun McDonald, who each topped 100 receiving yards. Calvin Johnson did hit the end zone (first time since Week 7, for those keeping track), but he's still only getting his average three catches and 40 yards a game or so - not quite the fantasy impact some (not me) predicted. Another guy who should be having a huge fantasy impact, Plaxico Burress, isn't right now. This ankle ailment that's been keeping him from practicing is starting to affect him on game days - no TDs in his past four games now after eight through Week 6. You might have to consider benching him next week against Minnesota if you have other options. ... Brandon Jacobs ran for only 54 yards but surprisingly got involved in the passing game (four catches, 49 yards, TD). The bad news is he left the game with an apparent hamstring injury. Keep an eye on it.

BROWNS 33, RAVENS 30 (OT): Question: Who is Devard Darling, and how did he manage 107 yards and a TD in this game? Answer: He's a little-used, fourth-year receiver, and he was playing the Browns. Don't go running to the waiver wire for this guy, especially with an extremely tough upcoming schedule on his plate (at San Diego, New England, Indy in the next three weeks). It had to be a little disheartening for those who started Derrick Mason, who seems allergic to 100-yard games and TDs. ... No TDs for Derek Anderson or his receiving corps, either, but I expect that to change next week against Houston. And I can't go without mentioning Phil Dawson's game-tying field goal, one of the strangest I've ever seen. It even had the announcers a bit confused.



TEXANS 20, SAINTS 10: Welcome back, Andre Johnson! The Houston receiver couldn't return to the lineup soon enough, rewarding patient owners with 120 yards and a score. He's now got 382 yards and four TDs in three games played this season. If you had been skittish, rest assured it's safe to start Johnson next week against the Browns. In fact, I encourage it. ... Drew Brees threw for 290 yards and one TD, but it went to the enigmatic Devery Henderson, his only catch of the game. Henderson's still too inconsistent to count on.

JAGUARS 24, CHARGERS 17: Welcome back, David Garrard! OK, maybe he's not as fantasy relevant as Johnson, but he did look in control of this offense and threw two touchdowns. I'd start him next week against the reeling Bills if I was really in a pitch. ... One guy who IS fantasy relevant: LaDainian Tomlinson. He had a vintage game, with 155 total yards and a TD. He almost threw for another one, too, but got taken down on a fourth-down try. Questionable call, but we've seen it work plenty of times.

BUCS 31, FALCONS 7: I don't know if the Bucs defense is this good, or the Falcons offense is this bad. Probably a little of both. This whole Byron Leftwich/Joey Harrington QB controversy doesn't really get my blood pumping. Now Atlanta's got a short week to prepare for the Colts on Thanksgiving night (only on the NFL Network, call your local cable provider!) - I'm staying away. As for the Bucs' O, Joey Galloway caught another of his long trademark TDs (44 yards), and Earnest Graham looked comfortable again as the feature back with his second straight 100-yard game with a score. Michael Pittman is back from his ankle injury, and he did get 10 carries to Graham's 17. That seems like the kind of mix we'll see down the stretch, at least ideally, for the Bucs, which mean Graham has more value.

Photos by The Associated Press

Friday, November 16, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 11

• Chester Taylor, welcome back to fantasy relevance. The Minnesota Vikings' veteran RB was a 1,000-yard rusher last year in his first season as a full-time starter, but he's been just a tad outshined by a certain rookie you may have heard of. The good news for Taylor is twofold: Adrian Peterson is out this week (perhaps longer) with a knee injury, and Taylor gets to face a subpar Raiders D this week. Yum. FIVE STARS (Out of five)

• Seems like fantasy nerds have been talking about Selvin Young all season long, but the Broncos rookie RB just busted out his first TD and 100-yard game in Week 10. Starter Travis Henry is suffering from an ailing knee and, more importantly, has a possible drug suspension looming. Better get Young if you still can. FIVE STARS

• Brodie Croyle gets his first start in an attempt to give the Chiefs "a spark." Not sure how that's gonna work out, but young Brodie does have a couple things going for him this week against the Colts: he's got emerging star Dwayne Bowe to throw to, and he won't have to worry about QB killer Dwight Freeney, who's out for the year. Croyle's really only an option in deep leagues, but he will probably hold down the starting job for the rest of the year, so he gets TWO STARS. His wife, meanwhile, gets FIVE STARS

• Anytime a little-known TE catches two TDs in a game, you have to take notice. That's the case with Leonard Pope of the Arizona Cardinals. Pope's only averaged about a catch a game in his two years in the NFL, but caught five last week, two for scores, against the Lions. It's hard to expect that kind of performance again from the big dude, but hey, if you're looking to shake your roster up this week and catch lightning in a bottle, you could do worse than this guy, especially since he faces the Bengals. TWO STARS

• You know the story with Rex Grossman at this point: he's usually good for a few bombs and a few boneheaded plays a game, and it all depends on the ratio on a given week. He's about as extreme as it gets when it comes to rolling the dice, so be warned if you're thinking about using him this week against the Seahawks. TWO STARS

• Apparently Ricky Williams has cleared his mind or found his inner self or something, because he's been reinstated by the NFL and wants to get back on the field. The real shocker is the Dolphins are willing to give him a roster spot after coach Cam Cameron met with him in person Thursday and figured he's got nothing left to lose (except all the rest of his team's games). It's anybody's guess as to whether or not Williams will even see the field, let alone be even half as effective as he once was. Jesse Chatman owners have to be a little bummed too by this development, but don't get discouraged yet. Until we see something out of him, it's hard to get too high (pun intended) on Ricky as a fantasy player. ONE STAR



Photo courtesy of Thesmokinggun.com.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Week 10 recap - Pt. 2

CHARGERS 23, COLTS 21: Doesn't get much more bizzare than this. SIX picks for Peyton Manning? Adam Vinatieri misses an easy 29-yarder with the game on the line? A punt return and a kickoff return for TDs for Darren Sproles? That's six defensive/special teams TDs for the Bolts in the past five weeks if you're keeping track. Another awful game for Philip Rivers (104 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs)? Twenty-two carries, 56 yards for Joseph Addai? Almost everything was out of whack. At least Reggie Wayne (140 yards, TD) and LaDainian Tomlinson (76 yards, TD) tried to restore some order. I wouldn't ready too much into the Colts' struggles - in fact I'd be pretty excited if I had Peyton Manning, since he's probably going to light up the Chiefs in Week 11. Oh, and you've got to keep starting the Chargers defense obviously.



COWBOYS 31, GIANTS 20: Well it looks like Dallas controls the NFC East ... Tony Romo couldn't stop smirking, and rightfully so after tossing four TDs, two to Terrell Owens. The role players also got involved (TDs for Patrick Crayton, Reuben Droughns and our old friend Tony Curtis). Jeremy Shockey had a career day for the Giants (12 catches, 129 yards, TD) - that's Antonio Gates territory right there. Eli Manning did a lot of smirking of his own during his one-TD, two-INT performance, but not a happy smirk, that smirk he does when he and the Giants are shooting themselves in the foot in a big game.

BENGALS 21, RAVENS 7: If you thought Carson Palmer threw three TDs in this one, think again: All 21 Cincy points came on Shayne Graham field goals. Oh, and I had him on my bench. On a positive note, we learned that there can be enough balls to go around for bad boy Chris Henry (four catches for 99 yards) in this offense ... We also learned that Steve McNair's days as an effective NFL starter (129 yards, two fumbles, INT, benched for Kyle Boller) are basically finished.

CARDINALS 31, LIONS 21: Detroit had -14 rushing yards. Think about that for a second. Kevin Jones still managed a TD to avoid a complete disaster. Jon Kitna hit Roy Williams for two scores, including one in garbage time (there's no such thing in fantasy). Larry Fitzgerald also caught a pair of TDs, as did Cards TE Leonard Pope. Is Pope now a viable fantasy tight end? Well he's got the skills, but he had never been targeted this much before (five catches, 52 yards) - he had only nine catches in the previous eight games. But hey, he's worth grabbing as a backup, especially with Cincinnati, San Francisco and Cleveland up next on the schedule.

BEARS 17, RAIDERS 6: Ugh, do I really have to talk about this one? I guess not, it's my blog after all. You can go here to read all about it.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Week 10 recap - Pt. 1

RAMS 37, SAINTS 29: Rams win! Rams win! This is more like what we expected from this offense all season. It helped having Steven Jackson (76 yards, TD) at something close to full strength, and he even got a bonus passing TD on a trick play to Randy McMichael. It looks safe to use Jackson in the coming weeks, he has some good matchups (at San Fran, Seattle, Atlanta, at Cincy), and you can start to collect some returns on your first-round draft pick. Marc Bulger finally had time to throw (27-for-33, 302 yards), and he spread the ball around well. Drew Brees was still able to put up some numbers, but hot pickup David Patten (3 catches, 37 yards) was a bust. Reggie Bush scored for the second straight week.

EAGLES 33, REDSKINS 25: Just when you're ready to count out Donovan McNabb, he busts out a four-TD game. What do these Philly fans want, a return to the Bobby Hoying days? Brian Westbrook caught two of those scores, and he also got a gimme TD run in the fourth quarter when the Skins let him into the end zone in an effort to get the ball back. Boy, that's gotta stick in your craw if you were playing against Westbrook. Jason Campbell threw three TDs, but they went to two guys who nobody started: Keenan McCardell (1) and former Eagle James Thrash (2). Clinton Portis aka Choo-Choo is back to his alter egos and more importantly back to 100-yard rushing games. Ladell Betts (one carry, five yards) is still MIA.



PACKERS 34, VIKINGS 0: I want to give a special shout out to the Vikings offense for this pathetic performance. I was playing in one league against a guy who started the Green Bay defense, and instead of kicking a 47-yard FG at the end of the game to erase the shutout, Minnesota opted to go for it on 4th-and-7 and, you guessed it, didn't make it. That gave my opponent 10 bonus points for the shutout. Great job, Brooks Bollinger! Of course it didn't hurt that Adrian Peterson took a shot to the knee and had to leave the game with only 45 rushing yards. If he's got to miss any time, Chester Taylor might finally have some value. Taylor had a couple good runs and also had 50 yards on a catch-and-run. And on the Packers side, I whiffed again on my projection for Ryan Grant, who somehow managed 119 yards and a TD against a brick-wall Vikings run D. Brett Favre threw three TDs, one to Donald Lee and two more to Ruvell Martin, who else?

STEELERS 31, BROWNS 28: This one was all about the QBs. Derek Anderson continued to defy the skeptics with three touchdown tosses and had the Browns in position for a game-tying FG as time expired. Ben Roethlisberger (told you to start him) threw two TDs of his own and ran one in. Willie Parker had his sixth 100-yard game. Braylon Edwards caught only one ball, but it was a great one in the end zone.

BRONCOS 27, CHIEFS 11: Travis Henry was a game-time scratch, so rookie Selvin Young stepped in with great results, notching his first 100-yard game and first TD. He's for real. Priest Holmes didn't have a terrible game in his first start in about two years (20 carries, 65 yards), as long as your expectations weren't sky-high. The Chiefs' QB situation is a mess, but WR Dwayne Bowe still picked up 100 yards.

FALCONS 20, PANTHERS 13: Warrick Dunn (85 yards, TD) is still alive). So is Alge Crumpler (30-yard TD catch), who had missed the past two games. Steve Smith was mediocre (five catches, 61 yards) like I warned. So was DeShaun Foster (20 carries, 59 yards), which I didn't expect.

JAGUARS 28, TITANS 13: Tennessee gave up two rushing TDs, one to Maurice Jones-Drew and one to Fred Taylor, after allowing only three all year. Jones-Drew went over 100 yards too, which means my "sit" recommendation was way off. My bad. Vince Young decided to throw a TD pass this week, but he's still probably not startable.



BILLS 13, DOLPHINS 10: So close, but yet so far, Miami. The Fins actually led this barn-burner 3-2 late in the third quarter. It was pretty ugly all around as you can imagine, except for the RBs: Marshawn Lynch scored his sixth TD, and Jesse Chatman ran for 124 yards. J.P. Losman really let me down (12 for 23, 124 yards, no TDs, 1 INT), which of course meant Lee Evans' stats suffered. Thanks, fellas.

Photos by The Associated Press.

Saturday, November 10, 2007

Week 10 start/sit

START

Cedric Benson's struggles got you down? He'll snap out of it this week against the Raiders, who lead the league in rush TDs allowed and just helped Ron Dayne (122 yards, TD) return to his Wisconsin days. If Cedric screws this one up, he and I aren't speaking again.

Ben Roethlisberger's coming off a five-TD game, so it wouldn't make much sense to have him on your bench this week. There's a decent chance he can duplicate it against the Bengals' wet-tissue defense.

Greg Jennings has to be in your lineup at this point. He only catches a few balls a game, but one is usually a TD bomb, a trend that should continue against Minnesota.

Kevin Jones' running has gotten steadily stronger as he's worked his way back from a foot injury. This week he faces the Cardinals, who let Earnest Graham bust loose for 124 yards last week.

LenDale White is shooting for his fourth straight 100-yard game, and the Jags' D ain't what it used to be.

SIT

Only four TDs for Maurice Jones-Drew so far, not counting last week's kickoff return of course. That means he's got 11 more to go to match last year's total. Chances are he won't add to it against the Titans (66 rushing yards a game, three TDs allowed all year).

Perhaps you remember Ryan Grant, hot pickup? Last week wasn't so bad (55 rushing yards, 37 receiving yards, 1 concussion), but now he faces the Vikings, who gobble up running backs.

No way I'm touching Philip Rivers after last week's atrocity (19 of 42, 197 yards, INT). He won't be that bad again, but he does face the Colts, who can be tough on QBs not named Tom Brady.

*Steve Smith is an interesting call, so he comes with an asterisk. He faces the Falcons, and you may recall what DeAngelo Williams did to him in their first meeting this year (one catch, 10 yards). You also may have noticed the Panthers are choosing between David Carr and Vinny Testaverde at QB this week. Smith is still a gamebreaker, but you may want to consider sitting him if you're really stacked at WR.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Talkin' baseball ... in November

I've totally neglected baseball on this blog for a while now, mostly because of the insane passion I and others have for all things football, and partly because my fantasy baseball team should have been put out of its misery somewhere around June. But with all the hot stove talk and the recent GM meetings in Orlando I thought I'd weigh in on a few of the rumored (and actual) offseason moves from a fantasy perspective.


I've always had this idea of the meetings being these top-secret negotiating sessions, where GMs and agents are having high level trade talks using sophisticated bargaining tactics in dark corners of the hotel bar at 3 in the morning. Then you realize most of the people involved are basically nerds and it's probably no different than when you or I are negotiating a deal in fantasy, which leads to exchanges that are probably something like this imagined conversation between the Yankees' Brian Cashman and agent Scott Shapiro:





Scott Shapiro:Hey Brian, what's up?
Brian Cashman: Not much Scott, just waiting for my luggage.
SS: Cool, man. How bout this weather down here, huh?
BC: Yeah. I see you're dressed for the occasion.
SS: Ha ha ha, yup. My wife bought this for me. You like it? I'm ready to get my party on. Hey so how about that A-Rod, huh? Is he a character or what? $350 million?! Wouldn't mind getting my 10 percent of that, ha ha ha.
BC: Yeah.
SS: So Brian, listen, I know we haven't really talked since the whole Carl Pavano thing went down ... I'm really sorry that didn't turn out the way we hoped. I hope there's no hard feelings between us bud ...
BC: Nope.
SS: ... because I know Carl really feels bad about everything that happened, but he's working really hard to get back in shape, and he really would like to pitch for the Yankees again somewhere down the road, honest he would. He really loves New York, and he's working extra hard this time ...
BC: It's OK Scott.
SS: OK great, because I'm just saying, Carl is really sorry he took all that money from you guys but he wants to make it up to you sometime, and so do I. And actually, I know this sounds crazy and I know you and George told me never to speak to you again but I see you guys are really hurting for pitching and I've got the perfect guy: Carlos Silva. We're only looking for five years, $70 million, I really think that'd be a bargain ...
BC: I think we'll pass, Scott.
SS: Really? Because this guy would be a perfect fit for the Yankees, he's ace material and he really, really wants to pitch in New York ..
BC: We're good.
SS: OK, but I'm just sayin, think about it bud. Hey I gotta run, they're doing karaoke down in the lounge, you wanna come?
BC: No thanks.
SS: Alright, well hey, you know where to reach me if you change your mind.
BC: Uh huh.


Alright enough of that, Let's start with Mr. Alex Rodriguez, the game's greatest player who apparently nobody wants. Maybe it has something to do with his outrageous demands and the Yankees' refusal to jump in the bidding war and drive up the price for that greedy little creep Scott Boras, but right now we have no idea where A-Rod will end up. Anaheim? Boston? San Francisco? Chicago? Or back in New York, with the Mets or even the Yankees? We'll have to wait and see .... personally I think the Yankees might get back into it after A) Boras finds out there's nobody else willing to come close to what he's asking for and he has to come crawling back to the Steinbrenners with hat in hand and B) they realize Wilson Betemit just isn't going to cut it next year at third base. But regardless of where he ends up, in fantasy, A-Rod is still A-Rod and should be the No. 1 player on your draft board. He's that good.


Sticking with the Yankees, seems like they're unwilling to deal their young pitchers (Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy), even if it means bringing back Miguel Cabrera or Johan Santana. A move to New York would bring a spike to both those guys' fantasy value, even though they're already in the upper-echelon for their respective positions. Cabrera is the one guy who could come close to replicating A-Rod's monstrous 2007 numbers and would be in a tremendous everyday lineup, and Santana would have better offensive support and a chance to win 20 games. As for the young pitchers mentioned, I'd take a long look at each of them on draft day, because they've already shown glimpses of their potential and now get a chance to be full-time members of the Yankees' rotation.

There was one actual trade made at the mettings, and that was a five-player deal that involved Brad Lidge going to the Phillies. He's clearly going to be the Phils' closer next year, with Brett Myers moving back into the rotation. We all know the story on Lidge, he's got great stuff but the mental makeup is what you worry about, and a relocation and a fresh start can only help him get his mind right. His strikeout potential (88 in 67 innings last year) make him at least a second-tier closer to target next year, although we'll have to see how he responds after he gives up his first bomb in the Citizens Bank bandbox. Myers actually responded well to the job change, but he's needed more in the Phils' rotation. As for the Astros, the main commodity they got back was OF Michael Bourn, who up until now has been strictly a speed guy (.277, six RBIs, 18 steals in 119 at-bats last season) but should get a chance to play everyday and prove he can hit. He's somebody to watch.

Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Hot pickups - Week 10

We already discussed Priest Holmes at length. I give him FOUR STARS (OUT OF FIVE). Backfield mate Kolby Smith gets TWO STARS until we see more of him.

Justin Fargas has stolen the Oakland Raiders' starting RB job from LaMont Jordan. He totally outplayed Jordan last week against the Houston Texans (104 yards on 23 carries, compared to just 10 yards on four carries for Jordan) and is a decent option against the Chicago Bears defense, which is still living off its reputation. FOUR STARS

The Detroit Lions defense is second only to the New England Patriots in fantasy points. You have to get them if the rest of your league is somehow asleep. Just don't expect one of these from Shaun Rogers every week, I don't think the big guy can handle another one:



FOUR STARS for the Lions D, FIVE STARS for the video.

Cincinnati Bengals WR Chris Henry is finished with his league-mandated time out and has been activated for Sunday's date with the Baltimore Ravens. Chad Johnson (strained neck) could be limited or even out this week, and the Ravens' D is coming off a Monday night shellacking against the Pittsburgh Steelers. THREE STARS

Seattle Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander looks like he’s caught that rapid-aging disease, so now is a good time to have Maurice Morris on your team. Ol' Mo doesn't have much upside, and the Seahawks are going to throw the ball a bunch, but you can at least expect 50 yards or so, maybe more against bad defenses, and a few TDs sprinkled in from Morris if Alexander is to miss any time. THREE STARS